The DecisionTools Suite

On-Demand Webinar: “Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite”

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»Watch now: “Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite”

This webinar is designed to provide an entry-level introduction into probabilistic analysis and will show how Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques can be applied to your everyday business analyses. If you build models in Excel then Palisade solutions can almost certainly help you to make more informed decisions, right from your desktop.

The webinar will explore some of the ways in which organisations are applying Palisade tools. From oil and gas, insurance and finance through to healthcare, defence and construction, @RISK and the other tools in the DecisionTools Suite enhance the decision making capabilities of some of the world’s most successful companies.

For more than 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modeling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. The webinar will demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to implement quantitative risk analysis in any business.

» Watch “Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite” now

» Download The DecisionTools Suite – try it for yourself!

Palisade Risk Conferences 2017: Pharma/Biotech in Mass., plus Bogotá and London

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Join us in a city near you for an intensive conference on best practices in risk and decision analysis!

These events are free to attend and promise to be invaluable opportunities for broadening one’s knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Benefits of Palisade Risk Conferences:

  • Get more from @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite – get exposure to the latest techniques in risk and decision analysis so you can apply them to your own models.
  • Learn from experts – sessions are taught by Palisade’s consultants and trainers.
  • Networking opportunities – share ideas and speak with presenters, other attendees, and Palisade staff to gain valuable insight from many backgrounds.

Conference Dates:

Cambridge, Mass. – Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology industry focus
March 7th, 2017
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Bogotá
March 9th, 2017
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London
April 27th, 2017
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See the full conference and workshop schedule.

Review our Software on Capterra

Review our Software on CapterraPalisade software users–have our tech tools been valuable to you and your work?  If so, we’d love you to take a few moments to review our products on Capterra.

Capterra provides software directories, blogs, infographics and ebooks to help customers find the exact type of software tool they’re looking for.  This tech  concierge service has been used by major industry leaders–such as Warner Brothers, Coca-Cola, Walmart, Whole Foods, and The Home Depot–to find the right tech solutions.

Palisade software is listed on Capterra, and we’d like to help people find it.  If you can, please take a moment to review our software tools on Capterra and help spread the word:

Visit the Capterra @RISK page
Visit the Capterra DecisionTools Suite page
Visit the Capterra BigPicture page

 

VIDEO: Introduction to the DecisionTools Suite

Do you use @RISK but haven’t explored the other Palisade Tools? It’s time you branched out to explore the DecisionTools Suite, which, in addition to @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation,  includes PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, the DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together better than ever before, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

To learn more, check out this introduction video to the Suite,  given by Palisade expert trainer Rishi Prabhakar:

The video will give viewers a good understanding of of each of these separate products and how they work together.

 

 

 

Want a More Perfect Portfolio? Time to Look at Life Insurance

Cynametrix Case StudyChances are, your financial portfolio does not include life insurance products.  Robert Danielsen, CEO of Cynametrix, a financial analytics consulting firm based in Minnesota, thinks this should change.

He explains that life insurance, or Insured Death Benefit (IDB) is a useful class for optimizing portfolios because its rate of return is driven primarily by when death occurs, rather than fluctuations in the capital markets, which means that IDB returns have a low correlation to those of other asset classes that are dependent on the stock market’s performance.

According to modern portfolio theory, adding an asset which has returns that are not tightly correlated to other assets in that portfolio can mitigate the risk of overall loss for that portfolio by reducing volatility–thus, adding life insurance into the mix can help act as a ‘shock absorber’ for market-driven stocks and other financial products.

While IDBs are beneficial, incorporating them is tricky. They can manifest in two separate ways—either as cash value— the investment element of a policy that is paid to the owner if the policy is surrendered prior to death, or as the death benefit, which is the amount paid to the policy’s beneficiary at the insured’s death. “The problem is, when you evaluate an IDB it’s hard to compare it to securities,” says  Danielsen. “What are you going to evaluate? The cash build-up or death benefit? Historically, insurance people have talked about the two characteristics separately.”

Optimizing portfolios with life insurance also presents a problem. Danielsen explains that, for portfolios with traditional financial products, analysts use the annual expected mean return and variance of an asset class to optimize the return or minimize portfolio instability. However, with life insurance products “there’s only one point of return—that’s the death of the insured, and we don’t know when that is—so how do you integrate that?”

Danielson has devised a novel method of evaluating and optimizing IDB known as MAVsm (which stands for mortality adjusted value) Using @RISK‘s Monte Carlo simulations, he process generates values and indexes for valuing the cash position of any life insurance product or strategy, incorporating mortality probability.

Along with this IDB data, the final result of Danielsen’s MAVsm model also includes a distribution of thousands of possibilities for the securities portfolio for each year of the strategy. Using this projection of probable values allows Danielsen to see the overall risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio.

Thanks to Palisade software, Danielsen has been able to make planning as precise as possible. “Palisade products have really enhanced these optimizing methods for me, and helped me create a much more sophisticated product.”

Read the full case study here.

 

Free Live Webcast on Futures Portfolios, THIS Thursday

This Thursday, October 16th, 2014 at 11:00 am EDT

 Vladimir Antikarov, Principal at Verea Group LLC. discusses how to use @RISK and The DecisionTools Suite in the Oil and Gas industry:

“Pricing and Managing the Liquidity Requirements of the Futures Portfolio for a Gas Distributor”

The presentation will describe a customizable application, using @RISK simulations, that allows a gas distributor to a priori assess the expected liquidity requirements for each contract and its cost, and to properly price it into the contract. The application allows a gas distributor to correctly assess and update the aggregated liquidity requirements of the whole futures portfolio and to plan accordingly. The application can be further used to analyze and optimize the hedging strategy of the gas distributor.

Register here.