On-Demand Webinar: “Project and Pipeline Valuation and Optimization with The DecisionTools Suite”

Project and Pipeline Valuation

»Watch now: “Project and Pipeline Valuation and Optimization with The DecisionTools Suite”

This introductory webinar explores the basics of project and product valuation within the context of a larger pipeline. Uncertainty relating to cost, escalation over time, and unexpected delays are modeled. Also, we look at the process of release schedule optimization subject to various constraints, including budget, technical feasibility, and resource availability.

For more than 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modeling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. Our webinars demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to implement quantitative risk analysis in any business

We’ll primarily use @RISK and RISKOptimizer, software tools that are part of The DecisionTools Suite.

» Watch “Project and Pipeline Valuation and Optimization with The DecisionTools Suite” now

» Download The DecisionTools Suite – try it for yourself!

Take Control Over Your CPU in @RISK and RISKOptimizer

@RISK has the ability to use multiple CPUs, but have you ever wanted more control to choose how many CPUs are used in @RISK to run simulations?  Now you can decide exactly how many CPUs to utilize, giving you more control of @RISK simulations and your computer!



RISKOptimizer also now has the capability of using multiple CPUs, dramatically increasing the speed of calculating optimizations. Speed tests showed optimizations run 4x faster than before – or even faster – saving you tremendous amounts of time.  So now there’s no excuse to take coffee breaks while waiting for your optimizations!

VIDEO: Introduction to the DecisionTools Suite

Do you use @RISK but haven’t explored the other Palisade Tools? It’s time you branched out to explore the DecisionTools Suite, which, in addition to @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation,  includes PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, the DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together better than ever before, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

To learn more, check out this introduction video to the Suite,  given by Palisade expert trainer Rishi Prabhakar:

The video will give viewers a good understanding of of each of these separate products and how they work together.




Making Medicine Count: The DecisionTools Suite Bolsters Efficacy of Humanitarian Programs

Linksbridge_CaseStudyGetting life-saving drugs to under-served people in developing countries is a driving goal for many non-profit organizations. However, well-intentioned efforts like these can fall short of their desired impact due to poor understanding of market uncertainty and risks associated with pharmaceutical manufacturing.

Linskbridge, SPC, a consulting firm that advises international development organizations in determining what efforts have the highest impact along with the best value for money spent, recently used @RISK, RISKOptimizer, and PrecisionTree to help determine the best method of introducing a life-saving medicine in developing countries. The process requires analytical forecasting of both demand and supply of the drug, as well as a detailed market analysis. With the aid of Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite software, the consultancy has been able to offer clients sound advice on which ventures have both humanitarian impact and fiscal soundness.

Khatuna Giorgadze, an associate with Linksbridge SPC, was able to take complex data from multiple sources and translate it into clear and comprehensive information. For example, she used @RISK to create a demand forecasting model, which included both static inputs like population data from United Nations Population Division, country census data, and World Health Organization coverage data, as well as probability distributions for highly uncertain inputs that represent a range of possible values.  Thus she was better able to predict the demand for a drug or medical treatment in developing countries. She was also able to forecast supply.  This step “is even more uncertain than demand,” Giorgadze says, “so we use @RISK to a great extent to assess manufacturing risks and supplier’s plans in the market.” With supply and demand established, Giorgadze then used @RISK, RISKOptimizer, and PrecisionTree to do a thorough market analysis. She then investigated different investment options for the company, determining the potential benefits and risks of each.

All this information was then presented to clients looking to make sound and cost-effective investment and policy decisions to meet public health objectives. Palisade’s products helped make this process all the more efficient and effective. “Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite is a very important component to our work,” says Giorgadze. “Since 2011, it has enabled us to do the required market and investment analysis and make decisions. It’s easy to use, and its compatibility with Excel makes it all the more appealing. We’re very happy with how this software has enhanced our work.”

Read the complete case study here.

Staying Fit, Saving Energy: @RISK, RISKOptimizer, Helps World’s Biggest Gym Save on Electricity

Fitness First Case StudyFitness First has over 1.2 million members, making it is the largest gym, health and fitness club group in the world—it also has a hefty electricity bill that needs managing.

They turned to Knowledge Global, an Australian company that specializes in advising clients on reducing energy use costs.

Knowledge Global has been delivering verifiable and accurate financial return on investment on energy efficiency programs via their data analytics tool called NRG Insight. The product is fundamentally an independent billing engine that uses daily smart meter updates to provide automated bill validation, accruals, budgeting, forecasting, market analysis and procurement aids.

Knowledge Global has been able to further enhance this product by using it with @RISK, which optimizes expenditure of new capital in energy efficiency programs. Inputs (such as energy cost, usage, and weather) can be modeled with appropriate distributions. The internal rate of return (i.e. NPV) on a portfolio of efficiency projects across a number of gyms is then modeled using RISKOptimizer, providing more confidence in future projects which are then validated by NRG Insight.

“Fitness First and our other clients are provided with more confidence in the expected returns of energy efficiency strategies which makes capital sign off easier,” says Ross Sharman, Managing Director of Knowledge Global. He adds, “@RISK’s strong statistical capability has made NRG Insight much smarter.”

Read the full case study here.


@RISK and RISKOptimizer Help Manage Decisions around Debt Portfolios and Capital Investments

GWU School of Engineering and Applied SciencesWhen faced with multiple kinds of debt instruments or exclusive capital investments, how can an analyst make a decision that maximizes reward but minimizes risk? Emmanuel Donkor, a quantitative analyst and faculty member of the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) at George Washington University addressed these complicated problems, using Palisade software @RISK and RISKOptimizer. His research has led to new and better methods for addressing these financial statistical problems.

Dr. Donkor used Palisade software tools @RISK and RISKOptimizer to conduct two separate research projects published in the journal the Engineering Economist. The first paper (one of the highest ranked articles in the journal) tackled the improvement of debt portfolios for financing capital investment plans, while the other project empirically tested stochastic dominance relationships in risky capital investments.

In his first project, Dr. Donkor, along with Associate Professor Michael Duffey, used @RISK and RISKOptimizer to help analyze and then recommend an appropriate mix of different debt instruments for financing a capital investment project. They first developed a stochastic financial model in Excel, and used RISKOptimizer’s simulation optimization capability to select an optimal mix of fixed-rate debt instruments such that default occurred no more than 5% of the time. They then used @RISK simulation to evaluate the performance of the debt policy prescribed by the optimization model.

In his second project, Dr. Donkor created a spreadsheet framework that uses @RISK to implement empirical tests of stochastic dominance (i.e., ranking random prospects based on preferences regarding outcomes). As a result of Dr. Donkor’s work, analysts can use an @RISK model to empirically test for the best option among many, allowing them to make defensible decisions when comparing risky capital investments, rather than visually-based ‘best guesses’.

» Read the complete case study.