risk analysis

On-Demand Webinar: “Risk Register Focus: Introduction to Risk Analysis using @RISK”

Risk Register Focus

»Watch now: “Risk Register Focus: Introduction to Risk Analysis using @RISK”

This introduction to probabilistic risk analysis will show you how simple it is to add Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques into your models. If you currently build cost estimate models or risk registers in Excel, Palisade solutions can almost certainly help you to make more informed decisions, right from your desktop.

We start with an introductory overview of probabilistic analysis. Then, we show how @RISK risk analysis software can be applied to a simple cost estimation model to quantify the uncertainty. Next, we explore how a risk register can be developed and added, to obtain a fully integrated model which calculates confidence levels and contingency.

For 30 years Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modelling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. This webinar will demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to implement quantitative risk analysis into a cost estimate.

» Watch “Risk Register Focus: Introduction to Risk Analysis using @RISK” now

» Download @RISK – try it for yourself!

Palisade Risk Conferences 2017: Pharma/Biotech in Mass., plus Bogotá and London


Join us in a city near you for an intensive conference on best practices in risk and decision analysis!

These events are free to attend and promise to be invaluable opportunities for broadening one’s knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Benefits of Palisade Risk Conferences:

  • Get more from @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite – get exposure to the latest techniques in risk and decision analysis so you can apply them to your own models.
  • Learn from experts – sessions are taught by Palisade’s consultants and trainers.
  • Networking opportunities – share ideas and speak with presenters, other attendees, and Palisade staff to gain valuable insight from many backgrounds.

Conference Dates:

Cambridge, Mass. – Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology industry focus
March 7th, 2017
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March 9th, 2017
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April 27th, 2017
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See the full conference and workshop schedule.

Integral Consulting Uses @RISK to Help Protect the Environment

integralconsultingcasemainSustainable ‘green’ practices have been a growing focus as individuals, corporations, and governments consider issues such as global warming, highly volatile markets, and urban sprawl.  For a Fortune 100 mining company, these concepts have become a key part of managing cleanups and hazardous waste sites to increase the environmental, social, and economic benefits of the cleanups.  The company needed to address acid mining drainage from large rock piles as well as the potential for rock slide risks at the site. The cleanup solution originally supported by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and State was complete removal of the rock piles and transport to an offsite disposal location. However, this could take more than 20 years to complete, at a cost of approximately USD $180M. The solution would also increase hazards to the public through exposure to years of heavy truck traffic through small towns, and produce millions of tons of greenhouse gases.

Integral Consulting, Inc., a science and engineering firm that provides multidisciplinary services in the fields of health, environment, technology and sustainability, was hired by the mining company to assist with evaluating remediation (aka cleanup) strategies for a 100-year-old mine. The Integral team used Palisade’s @RISK to evaluate multiple strategies and select a solution that minimized environmental impact and achieved full regulatory approval, while enabling the client to save more than USD $100M. The company’s mission is to help clients across a wide range of public and private enterprises to identify technically sound, cost-effective and environmentally friendly solutions to complex problems.

“@RISK enabled us to do sensitivity analysis on each criteria, which helped us determine how specific uncertainties could drive different decisions,” explained Timothy Havranek, Principal Consultant for Integral Consulting. “It let us easily identify which choice was optimum for our client, for the community and for the environment.”

» Read the full case study
» Learn more about @RISK
» Integral Consulting, Inc.
» Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Patrick Engineering Uses @RISK for Cost and Schedule Risk on MBTA Project

PatrickEngineeringPatrick Engineering, a nationwide U.S. engineering, design, and project management firm, provides independent cost estimating, scheduling, and risk analysis services for the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA). Given the uncertainty of cost and schedule duration estimates, the best way to display them is with probability distributions. Patrick Engineering uses @RISK to assess cost and schedule contingency needs based on project or program risks.

Patrick worked on the Downtown Crossing Vertical Upgrade project recently, part of the MBTA’s program to upgrade elevators and meet accessibility requirements of the Americans with Disabilities Act. The first step for the project was risk identification. “To do this, you need to work collaboratively with the client, with the designers, with the project management team, with anyone who will have insight into the project – you want them all involved,” explains Kim Kozak, Sr. Project Manager for Patrick Engineering. The full team for the Downtown Crossing station project included six organizations and approximately 20 team members.

From here, Patrick Engineering holds a Quantitative Risk Workshop with all the players. “We try to get people thinking, to encourage discussion, as even a small detail could lead to a giant risk,” said Kozak. “Similar to the situation with the Titanic – what seems like a minor detail could be enough to sink the entire ship.”

“The final results of Palisade’s @RISK models help us, and our clients, understand where projects could go – not where they will go,” explained Kozak. “And we know that if a risk does occur, we’re well prepared as we’ve already identified it.”

» Read the Full Case Study

Lessons from Oil and Chemical Case Studies: How to Build Accurate and Decision-Focused @RISK Models

Huybert Groenendaal, a managing partner at EpiX Analytics, discusses how to build accurate and effective @RISK models to help make strong decisions. He talks about what type distribution to choose, whether to include correlations, and how to present results in a way that supports decisions–all of which are incredibly powerful skills to have, especially paired with Palisade’s @RISK. Watch below to learn some of the basics of @RISK and how it can be used in various practical and helpful ways.

See more case studies here.

Check out live webcasts here.

Don’t Forget the Unknown-Unknowns: Palisade Client’s Article Tackles Uncertainty

Palisade customer Andrew Rudin, of Contrary Domino Partners, was recently featured in Customer Think, a global online community of business leaders covering customer experience and social business. Rudin’s piece comes in three parts:

Revenue Uncertainty – Part 1: Known Unknowns, Unknown Unknowns, and Everything in Between,”  discusses the multi-faceted aspect of risk.

Revenue Uncertainty Part II: Putting Uncertainty to Work at Your Company,” explains how to harness probabilistic tools to counteract the qualitative and subjective influences of human opinion in evaluating risks in a company.

“Revenue Uncertainty – Part III: How to Model Revenue Risk,” concludes the series with information on how to use statistical models and Monte Carlo analysis to develop a more realistic vision for revenue achievement under a set of assumptions or conditions.

Interested?  More info on these informative pieces below:

In the Part I of the series, Rudin asks, “How do vendors sort through the universe of data, artifacts, anecdotes, and information to develop sufficient knowledge to place bets intelligently?” He recommends parsing out the uncertainty into three categories—the Known-Known’s, the Known-Uknown’s, and the Uknown-Unknown’s. “In the last twenty years, we’ve made great strides in adding to the corpus of known-known’s, and we’ve come a long, long way in learning how to discover the known-unknown’s. But we’re still left dangling, because we know that categorization only takes us so far. We still must answer, “now what?” And for that, we need mathematical rigor,” Rudin explains in his piece.

In Part II of the series, Rudin describes how bringing quantitative risk management can be difficult: “This yin-yang of risk seeking and risk aversion between and within individuals creates immense organizational challenges because people – not algorithms – still make most of the high-level, strategic decisions in an enterprise. And executives suffer a love-hate relationship with uncertainty by sometimes confronting it, sometimes sweeping it under the rug, and sometimes, doing both.”

In his final installment, Rudin discusses how companies can better plan for risk by using distribution models, running Monte Carlo simulations and looking at the different potential scenarios, and asking additional questions after examining the probabilistic data. “After all, what could be easier at the outset than pointing toward a revenue hill and encouraging your team to go take it?” Rudin writes.  “But risk modeling will help you figure out whether there are any obstacles in between, and it will enable you to understand and estimate their magnitude. That insight will help you get past them, better ensuring your success.”

Check out Rudin’s blog here, and read Rudin’s advice on how companies can apply mathematical rigor to their uncertainty (hint, statistical probability—our specialty—is part of the solution).

@RISK at the Core of DNV GL’s Risk Management Services to Account for Uncertainty

@RISK Drives DNV GL's Risk Management Practice

DNV GL’s energy division consists of 3000 energy experts that deliver world-renowned testing and expertise for the energy value chain, including renewables and energy efficiency.

One of DNV GL’s customer’s, ROAF (Romerike avfallsforedling), an inter-municipal waste management company, wanted to invest in a new waste management system in order to meet EU targets of 50% minimum recycling of domestic waste by 2020. It had several recommendations delivered by a supplier, but needed to ensure that the final decision fell on the most cost-effective and sustainable system – and guarantee that all risks had been considered along the way, as well as an independent quality assessment of recommendations.

DNV GL worked with the customer to create a solid foundation for decision making by using @RISK to first understand and simplify assessment criteria, and then evaluate and report risks against these same criteria. “The main reason we chose @RISK is that it adds that critical uncertainty that is present in all investments and decisions into the model,” says  Nicolaj Tidemand, Principal Specialist at DNV GL. “This gives invaluable information to decision makers, with the integration into Microsoft Excel making the tool very flexible.”

He continues, “Risk management offers the customer more control over the risks related to the business and what actions can be taken to ensure a successful business outcome. Quantitative investment risk analysis gives the customer more information about the risks related to their investment decision, the flexibility of Palisade’s @RISK supports simple cost risk models and complex quantitative risk analyses that could be tailored to the customer’s needs.”

» Read “@RISK Drives DNV GL’s Risk Management Practice”

Palisade’s Impact on Helicopter Company Featured in Widespread Press

BloombergBusinessweek-Logo-940x350Palisade continues to garner broad media attention, this time due to the use of our software by a major helicopter manufacturer looking to better analyze risk when introducing new products. AgustaWestland, the European helicopter manufacturer, turned to @RISK to determine the financial feasibility of developing any new product, as detailed in our recent case study and blog. Since then, other publications have picked up the story, including Global Banking & Finance Review, a leading portal for financial news and opinions, Helihub, a data source for the helicopter industry,  Bloomberg Business Week, IT News Online, and Gadget Rumours. The story features a Palisade case study on the helicopter manufacturer’s efforts to conduct  risk analysis using  Monte Carlo simulation to determine the accuracy of their forecasts, and in turn improve business, both in true feasibility and in financial results.