Palisade

On-Demand Webinar: @RISK Correlation and Copulas: Gaining Insights into your Inputs

Correlation and Copulas

@RISK for Microsoft Excel and Project»Watch now: “@RISK Correlation and Copulas: Gaining Insights into your Inputs”

Gain additional insight into setting up and evaluating your risk analysis models in Excel, using @RISK. Learn how to incorporate correlation into your model to show how your input variables relate to one another while becoming familiar with basic concepts and terminology. Using @RISK’s correlation tables and copulas you will be able to acheive more accurate results.

Registrants also receive a link with example models and a slidedeck to accompany the presentation.

»Watch now: “Risk Register Focus: Introduction to Risk Analysis using @RISK”

» Download @RISK – try it for yourself!

On-Demand Webinar – @RISK Tornado Graphs and Sensitivity Analysis: Gaining Insights into your Models

@RISK for Microsoft Excel and Project»Watch now: “@RISK Tornado Graphs and Sensitivity Analysis: Gaining Insights into your Models”

Explore @RISK for Excel‘s tornado graphs and spider charts to learn how they can be used as a tool to help make more informed decisions. You will learn what the five different types of tornado graphs are, some of their additional features, and how they can be used to figure out which, and how much, the individual input variables impact the output variables that you are most interested in.

Registrants also receive a link with example models and a slidedeck to accompany the presentation.

»Watch now: “@RISK Tornado Graphs and Sensitivity Analysis: Gaining Insights into your Models”

» Download @RISK – try it for yourself!

New Edition of Book “Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects”

riskanddecisionanalysisinproject3edcoverJohn R. Schuyler delivers a wholly rewritten and expanded successor to the best-selling prior editions of his book.

Decision analysis provides assistance in making logical, consistent decisions under uncertainty. This book instructs readers in applying decision analysis to a wide range of project decisions. An essential concepts and how-to guide intended for serious Project Management students and practitioners, the scope of the book is quantitative analysis, from project inception to post-project review. The entire asset life cycle is covered, from an initial feasibility analysis, to the project plan, to the post-project review, and on to a look-back analysis of the capital investment decision.

» Learn more

» Download @RISK – try it for yourself!

On-Demand Webinar: “Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite”

Project and Pipeline Valuation
DTS

»Watch now: “Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite”

This webinar is designed to provide an entry-level introduction into probabilistic analysis and will show how Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques can be applied to your everyday business analyses. If you build models in Excel then Palisade solutions can almost certainly help you to make more informed decisions, right from your desktop.

The webinar will explore some of the ways in which organisations are applying Palisade tools. From oil and gas, insurance and finance through to healthcare, defence and construction, @RISK and the other tools in the DecisionTools Suite enhance the decision making capabilities of some of the world’s most successful companies.

For more than 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modeling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. The webinar will demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to implement quantitative risk analysis in any business.

» Watch “Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite” now

» Download The DecisionTools Suite – try it for yourself!

From Boardroom to Courtroom: Using @RISK to Value Early-Stage Companies

pellegrino_associatesIntellectual property (IP) is one of the most valuable assets early stage companies own, and one of the many challenges faced by these companies with no assets other than untested technology is how to determine a fair market value for their IP should they face a civil lawsuit.  IP makes a huge contribution to local, national and global economies. Businesses rely on the enforcement of their IP, e.g. patents, trademarks and copyrights, while consumers use IP to ensure they are purchasing safe, guaranteed products. This is why it is important for organizations to protect and understand the value of intellectual property.

Pellegrino & Associates, a boutique valuation company with a specialty in software and IP, uses Palisade’s @RISK software to run Monte Carlo simulations for their risk analysis and to calculate fair IP values, based on discounted future incomes. The method is detailed in the book BVR’s Guide to Intellectual Property Valuation, by Michael Pellegrino, a leading expert in IP valuation.

“We’ve used it on more than 300 client engagements in every major sector of the economy, from software and semiconductors to chemical coatings and consumer electronics,” said Pellegrino. “We apply it to a range of damages models including the assessed value of a product, reasonable royalty payments, total cost of product reproduction, as well as the potential for lost profits – and in all the cases that went to court where we used Monte Carlo simulation, our results were accepted every time.”

» Read the full case study
» Learn more about @RISK
» Pellegrino & Associates
» BVR’s Guide to Intellectual Property Valuation

Integral Consulting Uses @RISK to Help Protect the Environment

integralconsultingcasemainSustainable ‘green’ practices have been a growing focus as individuals, corporations, and governments consider issues such as global warming, highly volatile markets, and urban sprawl.  For a Fortune 100 mining company, these concepts have become a key part of managing cleanups and hazardous waste sites to increase the environmental, social, and economic benefits of the cleanups.  The company needed to address acid mining drainage from large rock piles as well as the potential for rock slide risks at the site. The cleanup solution originally supported by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and State was complete removal of the rock piles and transport to an offsite disposal location. However, this could take more than 20 years to complete, at a cost of approximately USD $180M. The solution would also increase hazards to the public through exposure to years of heavy truck traffic through small towns, and produce millions of tons of greenhouse gases.

Integral Consulting, Inc., a science and engineering firm that provides multidisciplinary services in the fields of health, environment, technology and sustainability, was hired by the mining company to assist with evaluating remediation (aka cleanup) strategies for a 100-year-old mine. The Integral team used Palisade’s @RISK to evaluate multiple strategies and select a solution that minimized environmental impact and achieved full regulatory approval, while enabling the client to save more than USD $100M. The company’s mission is to help clients across a wide range of public and private enterprises to identify technically sound, cost-effective and environmentally friendly solutions to complex problems.

“@RISK enabled us to do sensitivity analysis on each criteria, which helped us determine how specific uncertainties could drive different decisions,” explained Timothy Havranek, Principal Consultant for Integral Consulting. “It let us easily identify which choice was optimum for our client, for the community and for the environment.”

» Read the full case study
» Learn more about @RISK
» Integral Consulting, Inc.
» Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

@RISK Models Cancer Risks of Carcinogen Intake from Food and Beverages for Canadians

universityofvictoriaWhile news headlines regularly report on acute health issues relating to food and beverages, such as E. coli outbreaks and salmonella poisoning, very little is known about the adverse health issues caused by the longer-term intake of contaminants in those foods and beverages – including carcinogens. The University of Victoria (UVic), a national and international leader in many areas of critical research, participated in the CAREX Canada Project, funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, to better understand the environmental and occupational exposures to substances associated with cancer, and subsequently provide support for exposure reduction strategies and cancer prevention programs.

The UVic team used @RISK, Palisade’s risk analysis software, to model differences in Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk for Canadians based on contaminants found in food and beverages. The results revealed notable differences in cancer risks for several different demographics, and are detailed in the thesis, Geographic Exposure and Risk Assessment for Food Contaminants in Canada, by Roslyn Cheasley, a Master’s student with the Department of Geography at UVic.

Palisade’s @RISK enabled the team to easily and effectively determine the concentration of carcinogenic elements in the identified food and beverage products, as well as learn if certain demographics were more at risk from dietary patterns than others.

“We decided to take things up a notch when we updated the data, and upgrade to a probabilistic analysis model based on Monte Carlo simulation,” said Cheasley. “We wanted to estimate the range and frequency of possible daily contaminant intakes for Canadians, as well as associate these intake levels with lifetime excess cancer risk. This is where @RISK came into the equation.”

» Read the complete case study here
» Learn more about @RISK
» University of Victoria (UVic)

@RISK Manages Operational Risks in the Green Supply Chain

graphicerauniversityAs the public becomes more aware of environmental issues and global warming, consumers are asking more questions about the products they purchase. This has resulted in a growing number of companies considering the move to green supply chain management (GSCM) and integrating environmental thinking into their supply chain management.

“Many companies are concerned that changing their established processes and implementing a green supply chain could result in lower quality products, delayed shipments, or even a loss of business,” explained Dr. Sachin K. Mangla of the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee and Graphic Era University – Dehradun.

“Going green” can be a complex transition from an operational perspective, and not all companies are convinced that improved environmental performance will lead to financial gains. As green supply chain (GSC) considerations typically introduce different operational activities and processes to the supply chain, they also create new uncertainties and risks which can have a significant impact on a manufacturing-based business.

Dr. Sachin K. Mangla with Graphic Era University-Dehradun used Palisade risk analysis software @RISK to identify and evaluate the operational risks of implementing a GSC for a well-established plastic manufacturing company in India. The results generated a wide variety of possible risk scenarios, as well as associated probabilities. “@RISK enabled us to not only predict the type of risks that could happen, but also anticipate what risks were most likely to happen,” said Mangla. “This enabled us to create a model that provides companies with visibility into the potential ecological-economic gains of a green supply chain, as well as recommendations to best manage the operational risks.”

» Read the complete case study here
» Learn more about @RISK
» Graphic Era University – Dehradun

Patrick Engineering Uses @RISK for Cost and Schedule Risk on MBTA Project

PatrickEngineeringPatrick Engineering, a nationwide U.S. engineering, design, and project management firm, provides independent cost estimating, scheduling, and risk analysis services for the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA). Given the uncertainty of cost and schedule duration estimates, the best way to display them is with probability distributions. Patrick Engineering uses @RISK to assess cost and schedule contingency needs based on project or program risks.

Patrick worked on the Downtown Crossing Vertical Upgrade project recently, part of the MBTA’s program to upgrade elevators and meet accessibility requirements of the Americans with Disabilities Act. The first step for the project was risk identification. “To do this, you need to work collaboratively with the client, with the designers, with the project management team, with anyone who will have insight into the project – you want them all involved,” explains Kim Kozak, Sr. Project Manager for Patrick Engineering. The full team for the Downtown Crossing station project included six organizations and approximately 20 team members.

From here, Patrick Engineering holds a Quantitative Risk Workshop with all the players. “We try to get people thinking, to encourage discussion, as even a small detail could lead to a giant risk,” said Kozak. “Similar to the situation with the Titanic – what seems like a minor detail could be enough to sink the entire ship.”

“The final results of Palisade’s @RISK models help us, and our clients, understand where projects could go – not where they will go,” explained Kozak. “And we know that if a risk does occur, we’re well prepared as we’ve already identified it.”

» Read the Full Case Study

@RISK and DecisionTools Suite 7.5 Now Available

The latest version of our popular risk analysis tools, @RISK 7.5 and DecisionTools Suite 7.5 are now available!  Version 7.5 offers a range of improvements for any decision maker, from general use enhancements to new, specialized analytical features.  New and enhanced graphing options, faster performance, and sophisticated analytics make DecisionTools Suite 7.5 the only decision analysis toolset you’ll ever need.

Read What’s New

Register for a free webinar on What’s New in @RISK 7.5

Key Features Include:

  • New and Improved Tornado Graphs In @RISK
  • Faster Optimization with RISKOptimizer
  • Over 20 New @RISK Functions
  • Graphing and Reporting Improvements in @RISK
  • Optimized for Windows 10 and Excel 2016

Other Important Features:

  • Run Optimizations During Simulation Without Coding
  • New StatTools Analyses

Join Us for a Free to Learn More About What’s New In @RISK 7.5 and DecisionTools Suite 7.5!

» Wednesday, July 20th, 1pm EDT (NYC) | 10am PDT (Los Angeles) – Register

» Thursday, July 21st, 10am EDT (NYC) | 3pm BST (London) | 7:30pm IST (Delhi) – Register

» Wednesday, July 27th, 10am AEST (Sydney) – Register