This introduction to probabilistic risk analysis will show you how simple it is to add Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques into your models. If you currently build cost estimate models or risk registers in Excel, Palisade solutions can almost certainly help you to make more informed decisions, right from your desktop.
We start with an introductory overview of probabilistic analysis. Then, we show how @RISK risk analysis software can be applied to a simple cost estimation model to quantify the uncertainty. Next, we explore how a risk register can be developed and added, to obtain a fully integrated model which calculates confidence levels and contingency.
For 30 years Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modelling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. This webinar will demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to implement quantitative risk analysis into a cost estimate.
Which distribution should you use to represent uncertain values in your spreadsheet model? This webinar provides an introduction to probabilistic analysis and Monte Carlo simulation right in your Excel spreadsheet using @RISK, demonstrating techniques that can be used for choosing a distribution to represent uncertain variables. We will look at a variety of examples to help you become more comfortable with choosing distributions to model uncertainty.
For more than 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modeling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. This webinar will demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to select distributions to use in quantitative risk analysis for any business.
Huybert Groenendaal, a managing partner at EpiX Analytics, discusses how to build accurate and effective @RISK models to help make strong decisions. He talks about what type distribution to choose, whether to include correlations, and how to present results in a way that supports decisions–all of which are incredibly powerful skills to have, especially paired with Palisade’s @RISK. Watch below to learn some of the basics of @RISK and how it can be used in various practical and helpful ways.
Palisade expert trainer Rafael Hartke discusses how to use @RISK for cost estimation–more specifically, how to transform your deterministic models into probabilistic ones. This recorded webcast shows you how to add uncertainty as well as a risk register to your model.
About the trainer: Rafael Hartke is an Oil and Energy Industry Consultant at Palisade Corporation, where he works in the development and strategy of quantitative risk analysis methods. He has particular experience in the energy industry, having served as a Financial Engineer in Risk Management at Brazilian-based energy corporation, Petrobras in the Financial Planning and Risk Management department. There, he created risk models for complex investments and assessed project risks for medium and large projects, including Brazilian Pre-Salt giant fields, projects in the Gulf of Mexico, and offshore infrastructure projects.
Rafael has an MSc degree in Mechanical Engineering and is also a Global Association of Risk Professionals-certified Energy Risk Professional.
In this webcast, Palisade trainer Rishi Prabhakar explores tips for using @RISK that will benefit the beginner and experienced user alike. There are many features of @RISK that can make your modeling life much simpler, if you only knew they were there!
Rishi covers topics such as overlaying distribution graphs for comparison, changing default setting to affect reports and the way functions are inputted, and sharing models and results with others. Save yourself time and learn how to get the most out of @RISK with minimal effort!
About the trainer: Rishi brings a broad range of experience and expertise to the Palisade team. He has worked in and consulted to the energy industry, telecommunications, scientific research, banking and finance with an emphasis on operational risk and Basel II. Rishi has expert skills in the areas of statistical analysis, simulation, time series forecasting, risk/capital modelling, extreme value theory, survey design and analysis. He holds a BSc Mathematics from the University of Technology, Sydney.