Monte Carlo simulation

On-Demand Webinar – @RISK Tornado Graphs and Sensitivity Analysis: Gaining Insights into your Models

@RISK for Microsoft Excel and Project»Watch now: “@RISK Tornado Graphs and Sensitivity Analysis: Gaining Insights into your Models”

Explore @RISK for Excel‘s tornado graphs and spider charts to learn how they can be used as a tool to help make more informed decisions. You will learn what the five different types of tornado graphs are, some of their additional features, and how they can be used to figure out which, and how much, the individual input variables impact the output variables that you are most interested in.

Registrants also receive a link with example models and a slidedeck to accompany the presentation.

»Watch now: “@RISK Tornado Graphs and Sensitivity Analysis: Gaining Insights into your Models”

» Download @RISK – try it for yourself!

L.E. Peabody uses @RISK for Strategic Decisions at Electric Power Generating Facilities

Real option valuations are used by existing or prospective owners of power plants to support acquisition, divestiture, development, or retirement decisions.  Owners of power plants also use real option valuations to support capital decisions, such as the installation of environmental controls, the expansion of plant capacity, or equipment to improve efficiency.

L.E. Peabody & Associates, Inc., an economic consulting firm, specializes in supporting economic decisions around electric power generating facilities or “power plants.”  The company uses Palisade’s @RISK software to measure a power plant’s real option value and define a power plant’s risk profile.  Monte Carlo simulation is applied to simulate a power plant’s economic dispatch into uncertain power and fuel prices, thus helping the firm show current and prospective plant owners the full range of possibilities around strategic decisions.

“@RISK allows our firm to easily and comprehensively develop real options analysis for our projects that involve market uncertainty,” says Brian Despard, Vice President with L. E. Peabody & Associates. “As an Excel add-in, it integrates seamlessly into our various spreadsheet models. @RISK’s selection of distributions and functionality provide us with more than enough flexibility to develop our quantitative analyses.”

» Read the full case study
» Learn more about @RISK

On-Demand Webinar: “Risk Register Focus: Introduction to Risk Analysis using @RISK”

Risk Register Focus
@RISK

»Watch now: “Risk Register Focus: Introduction to Risk Analysis using @RISK”

This introduction to probabilistic risk analysis will show you how simple it is to add Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques into your models. If you currently build cost estimate models or risk registers in Excel, Palisade solutions can almost certainly help you to make more informed decisions, right from your desktop.

We start with an introductory overview of probabilistic analysis. Then, we show how @RISK risk analysis software can be applied to a simple cost estimation model to quantify the uncertainty. Next, we explore how a risk register can be developed and added, to obtain a fully integrated model which calculates confidence levels and contingency.

For 30 years Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modelling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. This webinar will demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to implement quantitative risk analysis into a cost estimate.

» Watch “Risk Register Focus: Introduction to Risk Analysis using @RISK” now

» Download @RISK – try it for yourself!

On-Demand Webinar: “Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite”

Project and Pipeline Valuation
DTS

»Watch now: “Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite”

This webinar is designed to provide an entry-level introduction into probabilistic analysis and will show how Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques can be applied to your everyday business analyses. If you build models in Excel then Palisade solutions can almost certainly help you to make more informed decisions, right from your desktop.

The webinar will explore some of the ways in which organisations are applying Palisade tools. From oil and gas, insurance and finance through to healthcare, defence and construction, @RISK and the other tools in the DecisionTools Suite enhance the decision making capabilities of some of the world’s most successful companies.

For more than 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modeling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. The webinar will demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to implement quantitative risk analysis in any business.

» Watch “Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite” now

» Download The DecisionTools Suite – try it for yourself!

On-Demand Webinar: “Choosing the Right Distribution”

Project and Pipeline Valuation
DTS

» Watch now: “Choosing the Right Distribution”

Which distribution should you use to represent uncertain values in your spreadsheet model? This webinar provides an introduction to probabilistic analysis and Monte Carlo simulation right in your Excel spreadsheet using @RISK, demonstrating techniques that can be used for choosing a distribution to represent uncertain variables. We will look at a variety of examples to help you become more comfortable with choosing distributions to model uncertainty.

For more than 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modeling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. This webinar will demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to select distributions to use in quantitative risk analysis for any business.

» Watch “Choosing the Right Distribution” now

» Download @RISK – try it for yourself!

New Functions in @RISK 7.5!

NewVersion7
Functions are at the heart of risk analysis involving Monte Carlo simulation. In version 7.5 we have added a total of 22 new functions – 16 distribution functions and 6 new statistical functions. @RISK’s new distribution functions will appeal to a variety of industries and applications:

  • RiskDagum – This distribution is mostly associated with modeling income distribution and is useful in many actuarial statistics.
  • RiskFréchet – Used to quantify extreme events, Fréchet distributions is helpful in modeling rare, unexpected events such as radioactive emissions, seismic analysis, and peak single-day rainfall and flooding.
  • RiskCauchy – This distribution is useful in scientific and engineering applications to model resonance behavior, measurement repeatability and light dispersion.
  • RiskBurr12 – Burr distributions are used to model household income, insurance risk and reliability data.
  • RiskFatigueLife – If you are looking to model material reliability, FatigueLife distribitions are effective in modeling reliability and are used to estimate failure of materials over time.

These new functions are important for accurate, insightful estimation of uncertainty and provide useful statistics on simulation results data.  Ranging from insurance risk to reliability engineering to modeling of household income, @RISK 7.5 has your risk analysis needs covered!

»Learn about all the new functions in @RISK 7.5

»Learn more about @RISK

@RISK and DecisionTools Suite 7.5 Now Available

The latest version of our popular risk analysis tools, @RISK 7.5 and DecisionTools Suite 7.5 are now available!  Version 7.5 offers a range of improvements for any decision maker, from general use enhancements to new, specialized analytical features.  New and enhanced graphing options, faster performance, and sophisticated analytics make DecisionTools Suite 7.5 the only decision analysis toolset you’ll ever need.

Read What’s New

Register for a free webinar on What’s New in @RISK 7.5

Key Features Include:

  • New and Improved Tornado Graphs In @RISK
  • Faster Optimization with RISKOptimizer
  • Over 20 New @RISK Functions
  • Graphing and Reporting Improvements in @RISK
  • Optimized for Windows 10 and Excel 2016

Other Important Features:

  • Run Optimizations During Simulation Without Coding
  • New StatTools Analyses

Join Us for a Free to Learn More About What’s New In @RISK 7.5 and DecisionTools Suite 7.5!

» Wednesday, July 20th, 1pm EDT (NYC) | 10am PDT (Los Angeles) – Register

» Thursday, July 21st, 10am EDT (NYC) | 3pm BST (London) | 7:30pm IST (Delhi) – Register

» Wednesday, July 27th, 10am AEST (Sydney) – Register

Palisade Client Discusses Project Success in Economia

Previously,  Visual Reporting,  the Denmark-based business analytical reporting consultancy, used @RISK to help the Danish Government comply with Danish legislation requiring all Government related IT business cases that exceed €1.33m to be risk-assessed.

Laurits Søgaard Nielsen, CEO at Visual Reporting, believes Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) used within @RISK was  integral to the solution that Visual Reporting  implemented for the Danish Government, and he discussed that success in the January 2015 issue of economia, which covers technical accountancy content,  business, economics, management and finance.  In the piece, Why do IT projects fail?Nielsen gives his insight:

“The main reason large IT projects fail is that they grow in complexity, and humans are very poor at handling complex tasks,” says Laurits Søgaard Nielsen, CEO of Virtual Reporting. “But often the creation of a business case does not follow best practice and can be severely affected by managers wanting to influence the process of project approval. ‘I want this project to happen’ often outweighs the poor business case.”

With Palisade’s risk and decision analysis tools, complex tasks and projects can be handled with confidence.

Read the original case study here.

Shipping Industry Relies on PrecisionTree, @RISK, to Manage Risks to Crew, Environment, and Property

DNV GL SEShipping Industry Relies on PrecisionTree, @RISK, to Manage Risks to Crew, Environment, and Property, an international organization for ship classification, safety and quality control, uses PrecisionTree and @RISK software (part of the DecisionTools Suite, Palisade’s complete toolkit of risk and decision analysis tools) to determine the risk of an incident occurring to a ship or its systems and the consequences should one occur. This enables cost-benefit analysis so that informed decisions can be made about the best strategies to mitigate risk events.

DNV GL is the world’s largest ship and offshore classification organization, and in this context, DNV GL is a key player in major research and development projects for the shipping industry. A core element of their focus is enhancing safety and security in shipping by pro-active use of risk assessment and cost-benefit techniques.

Part of their risk assessment method involves Palisade’s decision tree software, PrecisionTree, to develop the risk models that apply to: (1) crew; (2) environment; and (3) property.

They then use @RISK to perform Monte Carlo simulation, which factors in the uncertainty of input parameters for the risk models, and illustrates the impact on the estimates provided for the assessment of a current level of risk, as well as the cost-efficiency of risk-mitigating measures.

“PrecisionTree makes it straightforward to quickly develop event trees. These are essential to our analysis when looking at how to reduce the both the number of shipping incidents and the consequences should they occur,” explains Dr. Rainer Hamann, Topic Manager Risk Assessment, Safety Research at DNV GL SE. “At the same time we have to be realistic about the accuracy of our data inputs and, by means of distributions and Monte Carlo simulation, @RISK enables us to be clear about the level of uncertainty contained in each model. Embedded in the Microsoft environment, it also allows us to incorporate standard Excel features, making it easy to use.”

Read the original case study here.

 

Palisade VP Gives Tips on Planning for Climate Change in IT Business Edge Magazine

Planning for Climate Change in IT Business Edge MagazineIT Business Edge, on online business publication recently published a piece by Palisade Vice President Randy Heffernan titled “Using Monte Carlo Simulations for Disaster Preparedness,” a slideshow featuring key tips on how to apply this statistical method to planning for extreme weather events.

As the article states, “the U.S. National Research Council recently suggested the necessity of a “national vision” that will take precautionary, rather than reactionary, approaches to flooding, particularly in the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, where water has reached flood levels an average of 20 days per year since 2001.”

As an expert in quantitative risk analysis, Heffernan had some tips for handling the key problems businesses face around climate change risk planning, including:

Fundamentally, all these tips are anchored by the application of Monte Carlo simulation, which, the article explains, “performs risk analysis by building models of possible results by substituting a range of values — a probability distribution — for any factor that has inherent uncertainty. It then calculates results over and over using a different set of random values from the probability functions.”

Want to make sure your business is better prepared for extreme weather? Check out the full article here, and check out @RISK, the Monte Carlo simulation software that makes planning for climate change events possible.