New @RISK 7.5 and DecisionTools Suite 7.5 offer a range of improvements for any decision maker, from general use enhancements to new, specialized analytical features. New and enhanced graphing options, faster performance, and sophisticated analytics make DecisionTools Suite 7.5 the only decision analysis toolset you’ll ever need! Sign up for one of our free webinars and learn about our new features!
In each webinar, we’ll cover key features that are new in 7.5:
New and Improved Tornado Graphs in @RISK
Faster Optimization with RISKOptimizer
Over 20 New @RISK Functions
Graphing and Reporting Improvements in @RISK
Join us for a free webinar to learn about more new features in @RISK 7.5 and DecisionTools Suite 7.5!
How do we insure a reliable energy supply when using renewable energy sources?
Solar power is inherently unreliable, fluctuating with time of day and degree of cloudiness. Wind power is a victim of air flow patterns. To prevent blackouts, renewable energy sources need to be backed up with conventional power sources. In effect, they require virtually 100% backup with fossil, nuclear, hydro sources of power. Think of the repercussions of a solar eclipse and calm winds on renewable energy output, which occurred in Europe in 2015.
In this free on-demand minicourse, Professor Roy Nersesian models the complexities of this problem – and demonstrates solutions – using @RISK for Excel.
Huybert Groenendaal, a managing partner at EpiX Analytics, discusses how to build accurate and effective @RISK models to help make strong decisions. He talks about what type distribution to choose, whether to include correlations, and how to present results in a way that supports decisions–all of which are incredibly powerful skills to have, especially paired with Palisade’s @RISK. Watch below to learn some of the basics of @RISK and how it can be used in various practical and helpful ways.
Do you use @RISK but haven’t explored the other Palisade Tools? It’s time you branched out to explore the DecisionTools Suite, which, in addition to @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, includes PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, the DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together better than ever before, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.
To learn more, check out this introduction video to the Suite, given by Palisade expert trainer Rishi Prabhakar:
The video will give viewers a good understanding of of each of these separate products and how they work together.
Palisade expert trainer Rafael Hartke discusses how to use @RISK for cost estimation–more specifically, how to transform your deterministic models into probabilistic ones. This recorded webcast shows you how to add uncertainty as well as a risk register to your model.
About the trainer: Rafael Hartke is an Oil and Energy Industry Consultant at Palisade Corporation, where he works in the development and strategy of quantitative risk analysis methods. He has particular experience in the energy industry, having served as a Financial Engineer in Risk Management at Brazilian-based energy corporation, Petrobras in the Financial Planning and Risk Management department. There, he created risk models for complex investments and assessed project risks for medium and large projects, including Brazilian Pre-Salt giant fields, projects in the Gulf of Mexico, and offshore infrastructure projects.
Rafael has an MSc degree in Mechanical Engineering and is also a Global Association of Risk Professionals-certified Energy Risk Professional.
This recorded webcast, led by Palisade expert trainer Rishi Prabhakar, explores the use of VBA (the programming language for Excel) to control @RISK functionality to simplify the process of risk analysis for resource-strapped businesses. Rishi explains the advantages (and limitations) of macro control for modeling and running simulations. Check out the full webcast below!
Interested in learning more about controlling @RISK with VBA? Check out our written guide here.
About the trainer: Rishi brings a broad range of experience and expertise to the Palisade team. He has worked in and consulted to the energy industry, telecommunications, scientific research, banking and finance with an emphasis on operational risk and Basel II. Rishi has expert skills in the areas of statistical analysis, simulation, time series forecasting, risk/capital modeling, extreme value theory, survey design and analysis. He holds a BSc Mathematics from the University of Technology, Sydney.
In this webcast, Palisade trainer Rishi Prabhakar explores tips for using @RISK that will benefit the beginner and experienced user alike. There are many features of @RISK that can make your modeling life much simpler, if you only knew they were there!
Rishi covers topics such as overlaying distribution graphs for comparison, changing default setting to affect reports and the way functions are inputted, and sharing models and results with others. Save yourself time and learn how to get the most out of @RISK with minimal effort!
About the trainer: Rishi brings a broad range of experience and expertise to the Palisade team. He has worked in and consulted to the energy industry, telecommunications, scientific research, banking and finance with an emphasis on operational risk and Basel II. Rishi has expert skills in the areas of statistical analysis, simulation, time series forecasting, risk/capital modelling, extreme value theory, survey design and analysis. He holds a BSc Mathematics from the University of Technology, Sydney.
This free webcast video, presented by Palisade client Venkat Raman, Managing Principal of VR Advisors, discusses the financial evaluation of late-stage development of compounds in the pharmaceutical industry. However, the rationale, methodology, and analysis discussed here have universal applicability to any multi-stage product development activities across industries.
In this webcast, we:
Present the case – a miniature model of a full-blown real world case
Discuss the two financial models – the deterministic and the probabilistic models
Frame the case
Model the case
Discuss insights and results
About the presenter:Venkat Raman is a management consultant with over 25 years of extensive global experience in strategy and corporate finance across large and small enterprises. He began his career with the Big 6 and over the years has held leadership positions in the management consulting, insurance, technology services, and entrepreneurial ventures. Venkat brings his collective experience, wisdom, and judgment to every engagement. Venkat is an MBA from Indiana University, a qualified CPA, and a Chartered Accountant.
Commercial interests in natural resources present particular challenges to the modeler, such as price volatility, weather-dependent demand cycles, changing regulations, technological developments, and many other factors. The complexity of modeling these challenges can be daunting, and in fact, undue attention to getting the model “right” can overwhelm the usefulness of the final product. Good model design is instrumental to building simple models of complex systems that can deliver immediate and valuable insight to decision makers.
Good model design allows translating the essential needs of the decision-maker into an efficient and effective tool. The design of the model will determine the time required building it and running it, but also how data-intensive the model will be. Model design also has implications for risk management and decision making.
In this recorded webcast by Dr. Kurt Rinehart, consultant for EpiX Analytics, and Dr Francisco J. Zagmutt, managing partner at EpiX Analytics, the presenters discuss several case studies from their client work where they had to strike a balance between model realism and structural simplicity. They emphasize moments when they were able to exploit realistic assumptions or fundamental statistical theory to simplify the model and still obtain robust results. They also discuss commonly-seen mistakes that can result in systematically misleading models.
About the presenters:
Dr. Kurt Rinehart works as a consultant for EpiX Analytics, applying risk and statistical analysis to projects ranging from spatial forecasting to optimization. Kurt regularly works with clients in mining and oil and gas addressing risk-sensitive decisions in fast-paced scenarios. Dr. Rinehart holds a PhD and MS from the University of Vermont.
Dr Francisco J. Zagmutt is a managing partner at EpiX Analytics. As part of his consulting and research work, Dr. Zagmutt has performed and supervised numerous risk analysis consulting projects in a wide variety of industries worldwide. Francisco also has experience providing expert witness support on trade litigations and participating in international expert working groups. He holds a DVM from the University of Chile, MPVM from the University of California, Davis, and a PhD from Colorado State University. Dr. Zagmutt is also an honorary lecturer at the University of London.
Anthony Sclafani, registered Professional Engineer (California), a Certified Energy Manager, and a Certified Energy Auditor, gives a live webcast that will examine life cycle cost analysis (LLCA) and how best to incorporate uncertainty into the method:
Sclafani writes, “The LCCA method requires that estimates be made of costs and benefits associated with investment alternatives over the life of the equipment or program. There is always some uncertainty associated with these projections such as cost escalation.”
Learn how to do life cycle cost analysis using @RISK during this educational podcast.