PricewaterhouseCoopers deals with uncertainty head on, using Corridor Budgeting

PricewaterhouseCoopers put together a beautiful video about the Corridor Budgeting program, developed by Tobias Flath and Michael Hofmann. Corridor Budgeting is a methodology combining planning, business management, and risk management in order to prepare for a range of possible outcomes, and thereby generate a more realistic picture of the future. Palisade's DecisionTools Suite is an […]

Modeling Insurance Claims with Simulation, the Compound Function, and Resampling

It is important for an insurance company to estimate the amount of claims it will incur in a given year. This series of models assumes that there are three types of claims: auto, general liability, and worker's comp. Historical data for the company is included. The top section lists the numbers of claims for the […]

Video: New Product Projection using NPV, in @RISK

In evaluating a business decision, oftentimes Net Present Value is used to make a determination of whether a opportunity is worth pursuing. In this short video, Thompson Terry looks at a new product projection analysis, where a new specialty product is being brought to market. The product has a high selling price, but a small […]

Video: Oil Drilling Risk Analysis Model in PrecisionTree

In this brief video, Dr. Chris Albright demonstrates how to build and interpret a decision tree for a classical oil drilling problem. New features in PrecisionTree 6.0 are introduced, including Appending a Symmetric Subtree, Bayesian Revision, and Adding a Node anywhere in an existing tree. These new features make it easier than ever to perform […]

Video: Financial Portfolio Models in @RISK

In this video called "Financial Portfolio Models," Dr. Chris Albright demonstrates how @RISK can be used to examine a financial portfolio of stocks. The first model that is demonstrated is determinisitic, with no uncertainty about future stock prices. Later models incorporate uncertainty, and introduce the possibility of hedging the portfolio risk by adding put options […]

Neural Networks Optimize Police Force Efficiency

In the August 16, 2011 edition of the New York Times there was an interesting article about the use of predictive analytics by police departments. Entitled “Sending the Police Before There’s a Crime,” the article explores how the Santa Cruz, California police department optimizes the use of limited resources by anticipating where crimes are more […]