Videos

Free online resources for learning about risk and decision analysis software tools. More videos at http://www.palisade.com/videos/

VIDEO: Introduction to the DecisionTools Suite

Do you use @RISK but haven’t explored the other Palisade Tools? It’s time you branched out to explore the DecisionTools Suite, which, in addition to @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation,  includes PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, the DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together better than ever before, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

To learn more, check out this introduction video to the Suite,  given by Palisade expert trainer Rishi Prabhakar:

The video will give viewers a good understanding of of each of these separate products and how they work together.

 

 

 

VIDEO: Cost Estimation and Risk Registers using @RISK

Palisade expert trainer Rafael Hartke discusses how to use @RISK  for cost estimation–more specifically,  how to transform your deterministic models into probabilistic ones.  This recorded webcast shows you how to add uncertainty as well as a risk register to your model.

 

 

About the trainer: Rafael Hartke is an Oil and Energy Industry Consultant at Palisade Corporation, where he works in the development and strategy of quantitative risk analysis methods. He has particular experience in the energy industry, having served as a Financial Engineer in Risk Management at Brazilian-based energy corporation, Petrobras in the Financial Planning and Risk Management department.  There, he created risk models for complex investments and assessed project risks for medium and large projects, including Brazilian Pre-Salt giant fields, projects in the Gulf of Mexico, and offshore infrastructure projects.

Rafael has an MSc degree in Mechanical Engineering and is also a Global Association of Risk Professionals-certified Energy Risk Professional.

VIDEO: Using VBA for Excel and the XDK to Improve the @RISK Experience

This recorded webcast, led by Palisade expert trainer Rishi Prabhakar, explores the use of VBA (the programming language for Excel) to control @RISK functionality to simplify the process of risk analysis for resource-strapped businesses. Rishi  explains the advantages (and limitations) of macro control for modeling and running simulations.  Check out the full webcast below!

 

Interested in learning more about controlling @RISK with VBA?  Check out our written guide here.

 

About the trainer: Rishi brings a broad range of experience and expertise to the Palisade team. He has worked in and consulted to the energy industry, telecommunications, scientific research, banking and finance with an emphasis on operational risk and Basel II. Rishi has expert skills in the areas of statistical analysis, simulation, time series forecasting, risk/capital modeling, extreme value theory, survey design and analysis. He holds a BSc Mathematics from the University of Technology, Sydney.

VIDEO: Handy Tips using @RISK

In this webcast, Palisade trainer Rishi Prabhakar explores tips for using @RISK  that will benefit the beginner and experienced user alike. There are many features of @RISK that can make your modeling life much simpler, if you only knew they were there!

Rishi covers topics such as overlaying distribution graphs for comparison, changing default setting to affect reports and the way functions are inputted, and sharing models and results with others. Save yourself time and learn how to get the most out of @RISK with minimal effort!

 

About the trainer: Rishi brings a broad range of experience and expertise to the Palisade team. He has worked in and consulted to the energy industry, telecommunications, scientific research, banking and finance with an emphasis on operational risk and Basel II. Rishi has expert skills in the areas of statistical analysis, simulation, time series forecasting, risk/capital modelling, extreme value theory, survey design and analysis. He holds a BSc Mathematics from the University of Technology, Sydney.

 

VIDEO: Using @RISK in Evaluating Full (late stage) Compound Development in the Pharmaceutical Industry

This free webcast video, presented by Palisade client Venkat Raman, Managing Principal of VR Advisors, discusses the financial evaluation of late-stage development of compounds in the pharmaceutical industry. However, the rationale, methodology, and analysis discussed here have universal applicability to any multi-stage product development activities across industries.

In this webcast, we:

  • Present the case – a miniature model of a full-blown real world case
  • Discuss the two financial models – the deterministic and the probabilistic models
  • Frame the case
  • Model the case
  • Discuss insights and results

 

About the presenter:Venkat Raman is a management consultant with over 25 years of extensive global experience in strategy and corporate finance across large and small enterprises. He began his career with the Big 6 and over the years has held leadership positions in the management consulting, insurance, technology services, and entrepreneurial ventures. Venkat brings his collective experience, wisdom, and judgment to every engagement. Venkat is an MBA from Indiana University, a qualified CPA, and a Chartered Accountant.

 

VIDEO: Applied and Efficient Modeling in Natural Resources: Case Studies of Mining and Oil and Gas

Commercial interests in natural resources present particular challenges to the modeler, such as price volatility, weather-dependent demand cycles, changing regulations, technological developments, and many other factors. The complexity of modeling these challenges can be daunting, and in fact, undue attention to getting the model “right” can overwhelm the usefulness of the final product. Good model design is instrumental to building simple models of complex systems that can deliver immediate and valuable insight to decision makers.

Good model design allows translating the essential needs of the decision-maker into an efficient and effective tool. The design of the model will determine the time required building it and running it, but also how data-intensive the model will be. Model design also has implications for risk management and decision making.

In this recorded webcast by Dr. Kurt Rinehart, consultant for EpiX Analytics, and Dr Francisco J. Zagmutt, managing partner at EpiX Analytics,  the presenters discuss several case studies from their client work where they had to strike a balance between model realism and structural simplicity. They emphasize moments when they were able to exploit realistic assumptions or fundamental statistical theory to simplify the model and still obtain robust results. They also discuss commonly-seen mistakes that can result in systematically misleading models.

About the presenters:

Dr. Kurt Rinehart works as a consultant for EpiX Analytics, applying risk and statistical analysis to projects ranging from spatial forecasting to optimization. Kurt regularly works with clients in mining and oil and gas addressing risk-sensitive decisions in fast-paced scenarios. Dr. Rinehart holds a PhD and MS from the University of Vermont.

Dr Francisco J. Zagmutt is a managing partner at EpiX Analytics. As part of his consulting and research work, Dr. Zagmutt has performed and supervised numerous risk analysis consulting projects in a wide variety of industries worldwide. Francisco also has experience providing expert witness support on trade litigations and participating in international expert working groups. He holds a DVM from the University of Chile, MPVM from the University of California, Davis, and a PhD from Colorado State University. Dr. Zagmutt is also an honorary lecturer at the University of London.

Cost Risk Analysis Example Movie: Palisade’s Custom Development Team uses @RISK’s XDK for this custom application

Here is an example of a custom application written by Palisade Custom Development using @RISK's XDK in Excel. In this example, @RISK is used for cost risk analysis and estimation.  The application prompts the user for a three-point estimate for each cost item in the project as a way to recognize uncertainty in these cost elements.  A risk register is created using a simply colored grid interface.  Next, because in real life costs are seldom independent of each other, the user is able to set up correlations between related cost elements.  Finally, the user can define external risk events that will affect the total cost of the project. Automation takes the shape of an Excel add-in, which is shown to the user as a new Excel ribbon.

 

 

Custom Development in Excel

Palisade Custom Development has written applications for insurance, cost estimation, retirement planning, oil and gas prospecting, portfolio risk management, schedule-cost risk analysis and more – all utilizing @RISK technology in Excel. This means we can create risk analysis solutions for you using a range of powerful analytics, including Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, statistics, neural networks, and optimization. In each case, the interface is customized to include only what the users need, hiding unused @RISK functionality and preventing user access to the underlying model logic. You can also automate processes like reporting, generating only the charts and data you want. The result is a tailored application ready to roll out to your workgroup. 
 

New XDK Functionality and Documentation in version 6.2

Excel Developer’s Kits (XDK) automatically come as part of the DecisionTools software which includes, @RISK, PrecisionTree, Evolver, StatTools, and NeuralTools. XDKs allow you to automate and customize the tool within Excel using Excel’s built-in VBA programming language. In @RISK 6.2, the XDK has been updated to include new functionality for the automation of @RISK graphs and simulation filters, as well as several additional improvements. For most  products, the XDK now includes a new “Automation Guide” to help you get started quickly. In addition, new videos and example files have been added to the XDKs to help you use this powerful feature.

» See XDK videos

 

See how a customized Retirement Saving template assesses the performance of a portfolio in future years

Here is an example of a custom application written by Palisade Custom Development using @RISK's XDK in Excel. In this example, @RISK is used to analyze the investment of funds for retirement planning.  The application prompts the user for profile characteristics of the client and portfolio parameters. 

Once the information is entered, the application runs an @RISK simulation to assess the performance of the portfolio in future years as well as the effects of various withdrawal rates after retirement.  Results are presented in tables and graphs.

This video demonstrates how easy it is to utilize this Custom Application:
  1. Define Profile Parameters
    The user inputs the profile characteristics of the individual whose profile is to be modeled. 
     
  2. Define Model Parameters
    The next step is to add the probability distributions for the return of each of the investments. 
     
  3. Simulate and View Results
    Observe multiple simulations and view the custom reports that are provided.
     
Automation takes the shape of an Excel add-in, which is shown to the user as a new Excel ribbon. 
 

Custom Development in Excel

Palisade Custom Development has written applications for cost estimation, retirement planning, oil and gas prospecting, portfolio risk management, and more – all utilizing @RISK technology in Excel. In each case, the interface is customized to include only what the users need, hiding unused @RISK functionality and preventing user access to the underlying model logic. You can also automate processes like reporting, generating only the charts and data you want. The result is a tailored application ready to roll out to your workgroup. Because the application is in Excel, the training required for users is minimal. XDKs come with the DecisionTools software PrecisionTree, StatTools, NeuralTools, RISKOptimizer, and Evolver as well as @RISK. This means we can create risk analysis solutions for you using a range of powerful analytics, including Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, statistics, neural networks, and optimization. 

Finding the Weakest Link: Joseph Yacura Discusses Supply Chain Risk Management

Businesses around the world rely on supply chains to create, manage and distribute goods and services. Most of these supply chains reach beyond local borders and operate in a globalized environment which prioritizes cost-competitive production. To achieve these cost targets, companies have taken out all unnecessary capacity and inventory within the whole supply chain to maximum revenue. As a result, if anything goes wrong in just one link of these chains, entire businesses can stall. For most companies, these supply chains are at considerable risk of getting bogged down due to threats such as natural disasters, criminal activities, and cyber-attacks.

Joseph Yacura, a supply chain expert and consultant at ISG-ONE recently discussed how to manage potential risks facing supply chain operations in a video report released last month (see video below). According to Yacura, supply chains and supply chain risk management are becoming “a critical function of almost every company in the world.”

Yacura explained that in certain regulated industries such as financial services, insurance, healthcare and others, new regulatory requirements have been implemented. These regulations require that suppliers be monitored and managed. Failure to do some place the regulated business in serious exposure to significant financail penalties. This is an added risk for affected companies to manage.

According to the video, supply chain disruptions have become much more frequent, and their severity has increased “dramatically”.

To keep these increasingly complex and sophisticated supply chains secure moving forward, Yacura stated that companies must prioritize supply chain risk management, and recommended companies have a supply chain risk officer in place to deal with these issues.

Currently the best most companies can do is to monitor and react to supply chain disruptions that have already occurred. In the future, leading companies will use predictive modeling to anticipate risk and disruptions within their supply chain. Risk associations, that are shared between suppliers, will also be identified to mitigate future supply chain disruptions.

See also: Supply Chain Security and Risk Management in SupplyChainBrain magazine

How to Create a Custom Application for Stock Portfolio Optimization, Right in Your Spreadsheet

This is an example of the use of @RISK automation applied to stock portfolio optimization. It is a custom application written by Palisade Custom Development using @RISK’s XDK in Excel. 

The steps outlined in the Stock Portfolio Optimization example movie:
  1. Obtain Price & Weight Data
    The user will first define a portolfio of stocks. 
     
  2. Run Analysis & Review
    The next step is to run the analysis for the returns of each security. 
     
  3. Fit Data & Simulate
    The third step is to obtain the distributions that fit the historical return of the portoflio. Distributions of 10 will be used as a base for prediting gains or losses using a simulation. 
     
  4. Optimize & Generate Efficient Frontier
    The last step is to run the optimization process and maximize the portfolio's mean return, given certain constraints. Another feature available is to get the Efficient Frontier of the portfolio.
Automation takes the shape of an Excel add-in, which is shown to the user as a new Excel ribbon. 
 

Custom Development in Excel

Palisade Custom Development has written applications for cost estimation, retirement planning, oil and gas prospecting, portfolio risk management, and more – all utilizing @RISK technology in Excel. In each case, the interface is customized to include only what the users need, hiding unused @RISK functionality and preventing user access to the underlying model logic. You can also automate processes like reporting, generating only the charts and data you want. The result is a tailored application ready to roll out to your workgroup. Because the application is in Excel, the training required for users is minimal. XDKs come with the DecisionTools software PrecisionTree, StatTools, NeuralTools, RISKOptimizer, and Evolver as well as @RISK. This means we can create risk analysis solutions for you using a range of powerful analytics, including Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, statistics, neural networks, and optimization.