“When you are trying to communicate statistics to the medical community, people can get lost. But if you show them @RISK, they get it instantly.”

DR. JOHN FONTANESI
Director of the Center for Management Science in Health,
University of California San Diego School of Medicine

Case study   

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Last call for those wishing to attend this inspiring event, full of real insights from industry practitioners.

This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one’s knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

More info here.

Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using @RISK and The DecisionTools Suite
This event is designed to provide an entry-level introduction into probabilistic analysis and will show how Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques can be applied to your everyday business analyses. If you build models in Excel then Palisade solutions can almost certainly help you to make more informed decisions, right from your desktop.

The webinar will explore some of the ways in which organisations are applying Palisade tools. From oil and gas, insurance and finance through to healthcare, defence and construction, @RISK and the other tools in the DecisionTools Suite enhance the decision making capabilities of some of the world’s most successful companies.

Register here.

This free live webcast is intended to show the benefits of using Monte Carlo simulation in the processes of portfolio construction, and portfolio management for individuals, families and institutional investors. Topics will include a general overview of the portfolio management processes, as well as specific examples showing the use of @RISK and The DecisionTools Suite for risk management within these processes.

Register here.

What’s New in The DecisionTools Suite 7

The latest version of our popular suite of risk analysis tools, DecisionTools Suite 7 is now available for purchase. With the latest update users will see an array of new functionality, as well as the addition of our popular, highly revered new mind mapping and data exploration tool BigPicture! From strategic planning to data analysis to concept mapping, BigPicture adds a visual dimension to any decision process.

New functionality across the suite includes:

RISK 7 

Efficient Frontier Analysis (in RISKOptimizer)
Correlation using Copulas
Share Models and Graphs with Non-@RISK Users
Data Viewer to View any Excel Data with @RISK Charts
Customized Formatted Excel Reports

Enhanced Right-Click Menu

Evolver
Efficient Frontier Analysis

PrecisionTree
Integration with BigPicture as a Decision Tree Viewer

StatTools
Data Viewer to View any Excel Data with @RISK Charts
New StatTools Analyses

NeuralTools
Data Viewer to View any Excel Data with @RISK Charts

To get more information on these powerful updates, click here

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts
Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day conference in New York on the 4th August, 2015.

This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one’s knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

More information on the event can be found here along with registration details.

We look forward to meeting you!

Thursday, July 23rd, 2pm EDT / 6pm GMT
Presenter: Jerry Scherer, JB Scherer Consulting Group LLC

» Free registration

FENG and Palisade invite you to join us in a webinar designed to improve your forecasting process and give your company improved insights into what “success” means to your company.

As many companies have discovered forecasting the future is fraught with many uncertainties:

• Profitability – how best to estimate future demand, prices and costs for goods and services?
• Liquidity – Is my company over borrowed, under invested or over exposed?
• Risk – what happens if market rates (interest, currency, commodity) change or my banking partners impose conditions which jeopardize access to external sources of funds?

In addition, a reliance on forecasting tools like accounting systems and spreadsheets injects another level of uncertainty into the forecasting process, namely the probability of error or inability to integrate multiple sets of future outputs based on disparate sets of assumptions. After all ERP systems were designed to record historical events with accounting like certainty; however, the common denominator in any forecast is that its results will certainly be uncertain when compared to actual results.

In this webinar we will discuss the use of a statistical technique called Monte Carlo simulation which uses probability distributions to estimate a range over which certain events or outcomes will / will not occur. By combining the business experience of your production and finance staff with this statistical technique you will be better able to see which outcomes are most probable.

Whether your business is in manufacturing, service, warehousing, distribution or finance, this webinar will enlighten you as to a new way in which to inject certainty into an uncertain process.

» Free registration

Murray & Roberts uses @RISK to evaluate a cash flow based approach to enterprise risk management (ERM)

In a sector that faces many risks, engineering and construction services company Murray & Roberts takes a cash flow based approach to enterprise risk management (ERM). Using @RISK from Palisade enables it to simulate the risk scenarios identified in order to advise on the most effective mitigation strategies and controls. Murray & Roberts (http://www.murrob.com ) is a leading engineering and construction services company in South Africa and is recognised as an international engineering and construction group.

The engineering and construction industry faces various high risk scenarios, including a combination of negative markets, protracted strike action with labour unions unable to reach settlements amicably, loss of life due to poor safety standards, and delays and cost-overruns on major projects. If these risks are not understood and managed, stakeholders could face significant losses.

Most organisations in the industry undertake some form of ERM, based on best practices such as the ISO31000 framework. However, many still only take a qualitative approach. This is for a variety of reasons including a lack of the required level of technical knowledge, the belief that intuition provides adequate insight, and a tendency to avoid complex mathematical issues.

To combat this, Murray & Roberts is evaluating a more quantitative approach that links risk exposures to company value by way of cash flows. The company uses enterprise discounted cash flow (DCF) and discounted economic profit (EVA) as the valuation technique for company value. This measurement approach was selected as it relies exclusively on the flow of cash in and out of the organisation, the method preferred by investment houses and analysts, rather than on accounting-based contributions.

The risk problem is simulated using @RISK, which allows the simulation to be adjusted to account for interdependencies and correlations between risks.

Sean de la Rosa, project and enterprise risk manager of the Power & Water Platform at Murray & Roberts, says: “@RISK offers the powerful simulation capability that is required to model complex risk problems. Despite this, the simulations are relatively easy to perform and require minimal in-depth mathematical expertise.”

A full version of the case study can be found here: http://www.palisade.com/cases/MurrayRoberts.asp