Official blog of Palisade. Tips on making better decisions with analytics, news about the risk and decision analysis field, and updates from Palisade.
As every risk manager knows, however good a risk-based model, the validity of the forecasts it makes is dependent upon the quality of the input data. One approach to obtaining assurance that forecasts from Monte Carlo analysis are realistic is to measure the capability of the risk management process that has been used to produce …
Continue reading “Guarding Against Over-Optimistic Risk Forecasts”
The pros and cons of energy systems have never been as critical as they are today. Energy sources, irrespective of how “green” they may or may not be, present associated risks: financial, environmental, personal, etc. Traditional thinking just assumes that “green-equals-good”, but there are strong considerations which must be applied when harnessing something as powerful …
Continue reading “Det Norske Veritas (DNV) uses @RISK to Identify Risks in Energy Systems”
Creating a feasible budget is never easy, but it’s even more challenging during questionable economic times. That was the case for the Arc of Yates, an amazing organization in New York State that provides a wide array of services for individuals with developmental disabilities in Yates County. For many non-profit organizations, funding often comes from …
Continue reading “Arc of Yates County, New York Projects Budgets Using Monte Carlo Simulation”
While it is accepted wisdom that the world needs to increase its focus on sustainable energy, there is still much dispute about whether initiatives of this kind are financially viable. Sark7 is a specialist consultancy that aims to bridge the gap between populist enthusiasm surrounding ‘green’ initiatives and the intensive financial risk analysis demanded by …
A key issue facing organisations operating in newly-deregulated markets is that they must become competitive if they are to ensure their longterm survival. In Eastern Europe, the unbundling of Romania’s power monopoly resulted in the generation of a ‘market’ for electricity for the first time, and with that the introduction of competition. This saw power …
Global risk management consulting company DNV specializes in helping companies in the energy, maritime, healthcare and other industries identify, assess, and manage risks of all kinds. DNV uses probabilistic modeling with @RISK to illustrate factors affecting the return on investment of energy systems. @RISK is used for a range of applications, including wind and solar …
Continue reading “Det Norske Veritas (DNV) uses @RISK to Model ROI on Energy Systems Investments”
Presented by Scott Mongeau of Biomatica at the Palisade Risk Conference in Amsterdam, March 29, 2011 An energy development ‘risk / reward parity’ level is growing between new petroleum exploration and sustainable energy initiatives. This case uses a biofuel plant case study as an example of how a profitable business case can be made for …
Continue reading “Using the DecisionTools Suite for a Biofuel Plant Analysis”
Most of Professor Luciano Arantes Rezende Costa’s students at the Brazilian Petroleum Institute work in the local oil industry. So, when he teaches his 20-hour course on evaluation of petroleum exploration opportunities, he has to provide hands-on lessons his students can immediately apply in their own careers. That’s where Palisade’s @RISK software comes into play. …
Recently Brazil-based Petrobras, one of the world’s largest oil companies, implemented a corporate-wide protocol for evaluating the economic risks associated with potential investments. Key risks of interest to the company include those associated with production of oil and natural gas, demand for derivatives, prices of various commodities, and more. To deal with these risks, Petrobras …
In Denmark, where gas costs around €1.65/liter ($9 USD/gallon), planners have to make transportation as efficient as possible. For Kim Bang Salling, Ph.D., assistant professor at the Technical University of Denmark, that means teaching graduate students in his “Risk Analysis and Decision Support” class to question everything when reviewing a transportation project. For example, are …
Continue reading “Risk Analysis and Decision Support in Transport Projects”
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