Author: Palisade Training Services

Free Webcast this Thursday: “Using @RISK in Evaluating Full (late stage) Compound Development in the Pharmaceutical Industry”

Register now for a free webcast to be presented by Venkat Raman, A.C.A. MBA, Managing Principal of VR Advisors LLC.

"Using @RISK in Evaluating Full (late stage) Compound Development in the Pharmaceutical Industry" will discuss the financial evaluation of late stage development of compound in the pharmaceutical industry, but the rational, methodology and analysis discussed here has universal applicability to any multi-stage product development activities across industries. We will not discuss the real options analysis here, as this is not the intended objective of this presentation. But the webcast will:

  • Present the case – a miniature model of a full-blown real world case
  • Discuss the two financial models – the deterministic and the probabilistic models
  • Frame the case
  • Model the case
  • Discuss insights and results

JOIN US THIS THURSDAY – January 30, 2014 – 11:00am ESTRegister Now
"Using @RISK in Evaluating Full (late stage)
Compound Development in the Pharmaceutical Industry
"


Venkat Raman is a management consultant with over 25 years of extensive global experience in strategy and corporate finance across large and small enterprises. He began his career with the Big 6 and over the years has held leadership positions in the management consulting, insurance, technology services, and entrepreneurial ventures. Venkat brings his collective experience, wisdom, and judgment to every engagement. Venkat is an MBA from Indiana University, a qualified CPA, and a Chartered Accountant. Extended bio here.

Start the New Year Right with Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Software Training

Kick off the New Year with some fresh ideas presented to you by the Palisade Training Team. Our hands-on software training courses will take place in cities all around the globe. Join us for a training near you, to learn how to incorporate @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite into your models and help you make better decisions in 2014!

2014 Palisade Training Opportunities

Australia
Melbourne: 22-23 January 

Brasil
Rio de Janeiro: 29 – 31 de janeiro
São Paulo:19-21 de fevereiro
Belo Horizonte: 19 – 21 de março

Latinoamérica
México D.F – 28-30 de enero

EMEA and India
London: 28-30 January
Munich: 4-6 March
London: 4-6 March

US and Canada
Houston: 14-16 January
Ottawa: 11-13 February
Atlanta: 18-20 February
Washington DC: 4-6 March

» Register now for a Palisade  training seminar

Learn to Make Better Decisions 

For almost 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimationNPV analysisportfolio analysisoperational risk registersinsurance loss modelingreserves estimationschedule risk analysisbudgetingsales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which Palisade software tools can be applied.

By attending a Regional Seminar, you can learn how to apply @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite to real-life problems. All courses include complimentary materials with dozens of example models, plus lunch and breaks. Professional development credits are available, including CPE, PMI, and AACEI.

By the end of a 2-day course, attendees should be able to perform defensible risk assessments using @RISK software. The 3-day course covers the other products in the DecisionTools Suite, including PrecisionTreeRISKOptimizerEvolverTopRankStatTools, and NeuralTools. Our trainings utilize @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite 6.2.

» Learn more about the new features in version 6.2

 

Safe Food: Reducing Risk from Farm to Table

Lowering risk in food is a complex challenge, and is an area that government authorities and the food industry are ever-vigilant to address. Given negative impact food-borne illness can have on the population—such as sickness and, in some cases, death—minimizing risk at every turn is critical. The biggest challenge is examining  the risk that exists along the many stages food products must go through to get from the farm to the table. EpiX Analytics, a consultancy that works with a wide range of industries to lower risk, utilized @RISK in a partnership with the Royal Veterinary College at University of London  to launch a Postgraduate Certificate in Risk Analysis in Health and Food Safety.

Using Monte Carlo simulation, students were taught how to determine a range of possibilities, including the likelihood of bacterial contamination at different points of the food production chain, growth of bacteria in different conditions, conditions of transport and storage of food products, frequency of purchase/consumption of food products, portion of food product per person per meal or dose-response model for the bacteria found. Another lesson considered the cost-effectiveness of using seasonal vaccines on entire populations versus vaccinations used solely on individuals who are at a higher risk of infection.

It is gratifying to know that @RISK is being used to help train those who are doing work to benefit the overall health and well-being of people around the world.

» Read more about the University of London and EpiX Analytics' program

2013 Palisade Training Opportunities: Make Better Decisions with @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Now that the new version 6.2 is available, it is a great time to join us for one of our last few trainings scheduled on our calendar for 2013! Or maybe a live web training may be a better fit for you? Either way, you will learn how to incorporate @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite into your day to help you make better decisions.

For almost 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, portfolio analysis, operational risk registers, insurance loss modeling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which Palisade software tools can be applied.

By attending a Regional Seminar, you can learn how to apply @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite to real-life problems. All courses include complimentary materials with dozens of example models, plus lunch and breaks. Professional development credits are available, including CPE, PMI, and AACEI.

By the end of a 2-day course, attendees should be able to perform defensible risk assessments using @RISK software. The 3-day course covers the other products in the DecisionTools Suite, including PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, Evolver, TopRank, StatTools, and NeuralTools.

 

Decision-Making and Quantitative
Risk Analysis using @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

 

EMEA and India

London – Oct. 22-24Mumbai Training
Johannesburg – Oct. 29-31

Oslo – Nov. 19-20
Mumbai – Nov. 25-26
London – Dec. 3-5

Milan – Dec. 10-12
 

US and Canada

Denver – Nov. 6-7 

Los Angeles – Dec. 3-5

 

Australia
Perth – Nov. 20-21  
 

Evaluación de Riesgos en Proyectos de la Industria de la Construcción e Infraestructura
 

Latinoamérica
México D.F – 3 al 5 de diciembre  

 

Avaliação do Risco para Usuários @RISK e Decision Tools Suite

Brasil
Belo Horizonte – 23 – 25 de outubro
Curitiba – 23 – 25 de outubro

Brasília – 6 – 8 de novembro
São Paulo – 20 – 22 de novembro

 

» Register for a Palisade  training seminar 

 

 

Live Web Training

Live Web Training is delivered by an expert instructor via an interactive web session and telephone conference. Course notes and examples files are emailed to you. With online training you can avoid travel time and costs while still interacting with the instructor and group.

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk
Analysis using @RISK, Part I

October 31 – November 1

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk
Analysis using @RISK, Part II

November 14-15

Decision Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite, Part I

December 9-10

Decision Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite, Part II

December 19-20

» See the Live Web Training schedule and register today

Free Webcast this Thursday: “Energy Risk Modeling as a Teaching Tool, and Overview of the Book” with Roy Nersesian

Register now for a free webinar to be presented by risk modeling expert Roy Nersesian.

"Energy Risk Modeling as a Teaching Tool, and Overview of the Book"

Free webcast this Thursday, 19 September 2013
11am EDT

Energy Risk Modeling is a new book from Roy Nersesian for those looking for simulation, decision trees, and optimization techniques for energy applications.

Much of Energy Risk Modeling is a result of Professor Nersesian’s course Energy Modeling at School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) at Columbia University.

In this free live webcast, the presentation will be on how he utilized the contents of his book to build a course. His presentation will also be an overview of the book for individuals in the field of energy who may want to utilize @RISK products in their work.

The book has been written in a way to spur ideas on how @RISK products can be used in various aspects of energy from fossil fuels to renewables. At the end of his presentation, he will address matters on the minds of attendees on how @RISK may be applied to their work.

» Register now for the free webcast "Energy Risk Modeling as a Teaching Tool, and Overview of the Book"

About the Presenter

Roy Nersesian is a professor at the Leon Hess School of Business at Monmouth University and an adjunct professor at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. Professor Nersesian holds a BS in physics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and a MBA from Harvard Business School. His time is committed to education and writing. In addition to Energy Risk Modeling, he has also written for Palisade @RISK Bank Credit and Financial Analysis, Evolver Solutions for Business, and RISKOptimizer for Business Applications. He has written several books among them the 2nd edition of Energy in the 21st Century published by M. E. Sharpe in 2010. He is currently under contract with M.E. Sharpe to write a book on energy and economics.

» View the complete webcast schedule, and see past presentations in the Archive

Palisade Publishes New Book: Energy Risk Modeling, by Professor Roy Nersesian

One of Palisade’s most vocal supporters in the higher education sector is Professor Roy Nersesian, who teaches energy courses at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. Roy not only utilizes Palisade solutions in the classroom, but he has written a series of books published by Palisade on risk modeling. His latest offering, Energy Risk Modeling, examines how @RISK, PrecisionTree and Evolver are utilized by a wide range of traditional and alternative energy industries.  A sampling of topics covered include:

A sampling of topics include:

  • Modeling payoffs of oil drilling, using both PrecisionTree and @RISK
     
  • Analyzing the economics of a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export project where uncertain variables (cost of natural gas extraction, cost of liquefaction, cost of transportation and the price of LNG in the intended foreign market) are modeled and simulated in @RISK.
     
  • Optimizing an oil refinery to maximize profits and valuing a real option of purchasing a coal-fired plant using Evolver, shown to have a greater predictive efficacy than Excel’s built-in Solver.
     
  • Modeling solar panel and wind turbine power outputs by factoring cloud cover, temperature, time of day and wind speed, while optimizing said uncontrollable energy sources with uncontrollable demand to closely match daily energy demand with power generated.
     
  • Projecting hydropower output in terms of percent capacity using rainfall, evaporation and dam leakage as probabilistic variables.

There is an almost endless stream of potential risk factors to be considered by decision-makers in the energy sector, and Energy Risk Modeling clearly demonstrates how Palisade solutions can assist in planning for and avoiding potentially disastrous obstacles. More real-life examples of Palisade’s utilization in the energy sector can be found on Palisade’s case study page.

» Join us on September 19th for a complimentary live webcast with Roy Nersesian about Energy Risk Modeling
 
» Read more about Energy Risk Modeling

» More about Professor Nersesian, his courses, and publications

“Decision Trees and the Value of Flexibility II” in Oil & Gas Monitor: Taking another look at “Bad” projects

Rafael Hartke continues his series with "Decision Trees and the Value of Flexibility II" in Oil & Gas Monitor.

Hartke writes, "It’s a no-brainer that a good project with many chances to achieve success is better than one with only one chance.

"But what about a bad project? Intuition immediately tells us that repeating a project with negative outcomes is a bad idea. It has also been said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results, right?

"Turns out that in this instance both intuition and common sense are wrong."

Hartke uses decision trees to demonstrate how a "bad" project can be turned around, through investing a small amount in testing up front. 

 

 

» Read "Decision Trees and the Value of Flexibility II" in Oil & Gas Monitor

See related:

Video: Oil Drilling Risk Analysis Model in PrecisionTree

 

As Hydropower Moves to Small Dams, Big Dams use Risk Analysis Solutions to Meet Energy Conservation Goals

When alternative energy sources are discussed, hydroelectricity typically isn’t mentioned before solar, wind, or biofuel. Hydroelectricity, which generates power through dams and river currents, is a power source more associated with the first half of the 20th century. That said, there are still areas that rely heavily on hydroelectricity, such as British Columbia, Canada. BC Hydro, which utilizes @RISK to develop energy conservation strategies, supplies 90 percent of the province’s electricity.  
 
In a recent Risk & Insurance article by Gregory DL Morris, the future of hydroelectricity was considered, highlighting BC Hydro’s transition away from large traditional dams to smaller, “run-of-river” dams. Larger dams are often less efficient and more expensive to maintain, as pointed out by Basil Stumborg, a decision analysis expert at BC Hydro. In the article, Stumborg mentioned that @RISK is utilized in the effort to calculate risk factors in aging dams, which assists in the development of energy conservation strategies: 
 
"There is a huge incentive for utilities such as BC Hydro to encourage energy conservation. But while the motivation is there, it is often difficult to know whether these ambitious targets can be achieved. We have been using Palisade's risk analysis software @RISK to communicate complex analyses, and have been able to set very aggressive energy conservation goals.”
 
"From a risk-management point of view, we have found we can build risky things into your plan, but you have to know what your red flags are, and when to use your off ramps," he said.
 
As hydroelectricity scales down to smaller, more efficient dams, it is exciting to see @RISK playing a part in making BC Hydro’s traditional dams more energy efficient.
 
 

Free Webcast this Thursday: “Modeling Multi-Staged Investments with @RISK” with Eric Torkia

Register now for a free webinar to be presented by Eric Torkia. Don't miss this opportunity for inside tips from a successful consultant who uses Palisade risk and decision analysis software solutions to address current problems in financial risk analysis.

"Modeling Multi-Staged Investments with @RISK"

Free webcast this Thursday, 25 July 2013
11am EDT

When planning a multi-staged investment such as new product development or the deployment of a new asset consisting of multiple stage gates, the consequences on analyzing NPV risk are substantial. This free live webcast will show you how to model multiple gates as well as their impact on financial performance. Also presented in this model are how to assess completion stages and probabilities of investment success:

  • Overview of traditional discounted cash flows versus expanded NPV
  • Understanding and modeling product pipelines
  • Integrating expert judgment/opinion into your predictions
  • How to combine multiple staged investments into an optimized investment portfolio

We will discuss these topics as well as present practical models and applications using @RISK.

» Register now for the free webcast "Modeling Multi-Staged Investments with @RISK"

About the Presenter

Eric Torkia, MASc is a senior management consultant/trainer and business analyst. He has collaborated with some of the world's most recognized organizations to ensure the optimal design and delivery of enterprise systems, analytics as well as new forecasting and decision making processes.

Eric combines a unique set of skills and competencies revolving around performance, risk and change management to bring about durable business performance improvements: Financial and project based valuations, Project Risk Analysis on 1+ billion dollar projects, Performance Management business analysis and consulting, Spreadsheet Modeling and VBA automation for simulation, forecasting and optimization, Change Management consulting and training and instructional design relating to the adoption and implementation of enterprise analytics.

Eric’s academic background includes a Master’s degree in information systems management from the University of Québec in Montreal as well as a BBA in international marketing and management from Northwood University Florida.

» View the complete webcast schedule, and see past presentations in the Archive

Research at Curtain University of Technology Explores Tools for Teaching Probability and Risk

Textbooks that touch upon technology-related subject matter face the challenge of topics becoming outdated by the time the books go to press. Darren O’Connell found this type of content stagnation to be readily evident in how risk analysis is taught in institutes of higher learning. In fact, he found risk analysis lessons were not only behind the times, but not nearly as accurate as more current methods of calculating risk.

For his doctorate research at Curtin University of Technology (Australia), O’Connell compared the traditional method of teaching risk through the use of normal distributions, to a probabilistic method, featuring @RISK, StatTools and RISKOptimizer. Having utilized Palisade solutions professionally for financial risk analysis, O’Connell was convinced that new technologies offered more efficient and accurate means of teaching risk. To illustrate his point, O’Connell presented methods of modeling the stochastic price process of two illiquid securities under uncertainty by application of probabilistic techniques, in order to manage price risk within a Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework. To do this, he utilized multiple Palisade solutions. His research discovered that the newer methods were not only more accurate, but they were more user-friendly and cost-efficient.

“The benefits gained from using Palisade software were the ability to select probability distributions from a large universe, which opened up greater statistical modeling possibilities that develop more realistic solutions to problems encountered by industry practitioners,” reports O’Connell. “The seamless integration of Palisade products into the Excel development environment is a huge advantage, and allows practitioners to learn to use DecisionTools as if it’s a natural extension of learning Excel. This in turn reduces training and system development costs, because risk departments are not investing in expensive / extensive proprietary system solutions.”

» Read more about O’Connell’s research
» View a detailed slideshow