Month: January 2017

From Boardroom to Courtroom: Using @RISK to Value Early-Stage Companies

pellegrino_associatesIntellectual property (IP) is one of the most valuable assets early stage companies own, and one of the many challenges faced by these companies with no assets other than untested technology is how to determine a fair market value for their IP should they face a civil lawsuit.  IP makes a huge contribution to local, national and global economies. Businesses rely on the enforcement of their IP, e.g. patents, trademarks and copyrights, while consumers use IP to ensure they are purchasing safe, guaranteed products. This is why it is important for organizations to protect and understand the value of intellectual property.

Pellegrino & Associates, a boutique valuation company with a specialty in software and IP, uses Palisade’s @RISK software to run Monte Carlo simulations for their risk analysis and to calculate fair IP values, based on discounted future incomes. The method is detailed in the book BVR’s Guide to Intellectual Property Valuation, by Michael Pellegrino, a leading expert in IP valuation.

“We’ve used it on more than 300 client engagements in every major sector of the economy, from software and semiconductors to chemical coatings and consumer electronics,” said Pellegrino. “We apply it to a range of damages models including the assessed value of a product, reasonable royalty payments, total cost of product reproduction, as well as the potential for lost profits – and in all the cases that went to court where we used Monte Carlo simulation, our results were accepted every time.”

» Read the full case study
» Learn more about @RISK
» Pellegrino & Associates
» BVR’s Guide to Intellectual Property Valuation

On-Demand Webinar: “Choosing the Right Distribution”

Project and Pipeline Valuation
DTS

» Watch now: “Choosing the Right Distribution”

Which distribution should you use to represent uncertain values in your spreadsheet model? This webinar provides an introduction to probabilistic analysis and Monte Carlo simulation right in your Excel spreadsheet using @RISK, demonstrating techniques that can be used for choosing a distribution to represent uncertain variables. We will look at a variety of examples to help you become more comfortable with choosing distributions to model uncertainty.

For more than 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modeling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. This webinar will demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to select distributions to use in quantitative risk analysis for any business.

» Watch “Choosing the Right Distribution” now

» Download @RISK – try it for yourself!

Integral Consulting Uses @RISK to Help Protect the Environment

integralconsultingcasemainSustainable ‘green’ practices have been a growing focus as individuals, corporations, and governments consider issues such as global warming, highly volatile markets, and urban sprawl.  For a Fortune 100 mining company, these concepts have become a key part of managing cleanups and hazardous waste sites to increase the environmental, social, and economic benefits of the cleanups.  The company needed to address acid mining drainage from large rock piles as well as the potential for rock slide risks at the site. The cleanup solution originally supported by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and State was complete removal of the rock piles and transport to an offsite disposal location. However, this could take more than 20 years to complete, at a cost of approximately USD $180M. The solution would also increase hazards to the public through exposure to years of heavy truck traffic through small towns, and produce millions of tons of greenhouse gases.

Integral Consulting, Inc., a science and engineering firm that provides multidisciplinary services in the fields of health, environment, technology and sustainability, was hired by the mining company to assist with evaluating remediation (aka cleanup) strategies for a 100-year-old mine. The Integral team used Palisade’s @RISK to evaluate multiple strategies and select a solution that minimized environmental impact and achieved full regulatory approval, while enabling the client to save more than USD $100M. The company’s mission is to help clients across a wide range of public and private enterprises to identify technically sound, cost-effective and environmentally friendly solutions to complex problems.

“@RISK enabled us to do sensitivity analysis on each criteria, which helped us determine how specific uncertainties could drive different decisions,” explained Timothy Havranek, Principal Consultant for Integral Consulting. “It let us easily identify which choice was optimum for our client, for the community and for the environment.”

» Read the full case study
» Learn more about @RISK
» Integral Consulting, Inc.
» Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

On-Demand Webinar: “Project and Pipeline Valuation and Optimization with The DecisionTools Suite”

Project and Pipeline Valuation
DTS

»Watch now: “Project and Pipeline Valuation and Optimization with The DecisionTools Suite”

This introductory webinar explores the basics of project and product valuation within the context of a larger pipeline. Uncertainty relating to cost, escalation over time, and unexpected delays are modeled. Also, we look at the process of release schedule optimization subject to various constraints, including budget, technical feasibility, and resource availability.

For more than 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modeling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. Our webinars demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to implement quantitative risk analysis in any business

We’ll primarily use @RISK and RISKOptimizer, software tools that are part of The DecisionTools Suite.

» Watch “Project and Pipeline Valuation and Optimization with The DecisionTools Suite” now

» Download The DecisionTools Suite – try it for yourself!

@RISK Models Cancer Risks of Carcinogen Intake from Food and Beverages for Canadians

universityofvictoriaWhile news headlines regularly report on acute health issues relating to food and beverages, such as E. coli outbreaks and salmonella poisoning, very little is known about the adverse health issues caused by the longer-term intake of contaminants in those foods and beverages – including carcinogens. The University of Victoria (UVic), a national and international leader in many areas of critical research, participated in the CAREX Canada Project, funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, to better understand the environmental and occupational exposures to substances associated with cancer, and subsequently provide support for exposure reduction strategies and cancer prevention programs.

The UVic team used @RISK, Palisade’s risk analysis software, to model differences in Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk for Canadians based on contaminants found in food and beverages. The results revealed notable differences in cancer risks for several different demographics, and are detailed in the thesis, Geographic Exposure and Risk Assessment for Food Contaminants in Canada, by Roslyn Cheasley, a Master’s student with the Department of Geography at UVic.

Palisade’s @RISK enabled the team to easily and effectively determine the concentration of carcinogenic elements in the identified food and beverage products, as well as learn if certain demographics were more at risk from dietary patterns than others.

“We decided to take things up a notch when we updated the data, and upgrade to a probabilistic analysis model based on Monte Carlo simulation,” said Cheasley. “We wanted to estimate the range and frequency of possible daily contaminant intakes for Canadians, as well as associate these intake levels with lifetime excess cancer risk. This is where @RISK came into the equation.”

» Read the complete case study here
» Learn more about @RISK
» University of Victoria (UVic)

New Year, New Palisade Trainings!

Start off the new year right by attending a Palisade training to help bring new life into your risk and decision models. We are running events in Atlanta, Rome, Brisbane and more in the upcoming months.

  • em-training_topimageLearn how to apply @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite to real-life problems
  • Maximize your software investment with a 2-day or 3-day training
  • Courses include complimentary materials with dozens of example models, plus lunch and breaks.

Training Opportunities in Cities Near You!
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» Register for a Palisade Training
» More information about Palisade Training