Like most countries across the globe, Kuwait faces air pollution issues. To combat these problems, the Kuwait Environment Public Authority (KEPA) works hard to identify and categorize sources that cause, or contribute significantly to air pollution. KEPA created the Kuwait Implementation Plan (KIP) and divided the country into Air Quality Control Zones based on monitored ambient air quality. The United Nations Development program (UNDP) worked with KEPA to create a national emissions inventory that would provide them with a countrywide air modeling capability which would enable a source permit and monitoring program. Brian Freeman, Team Leader for Air Regulatory Management Systems at UNDP, found that Kuwaiti businesses needed to better understand their contribution to air quality, but realized the issue was complex.
Indeed, wind conditions and production output from industrial sources can contribute to a high concentration of pollution in an area. When the weather changes, so can pollution concentration. @RISK became an integral part of the inventory process, allowing for more detailed information, “As part of the analysis, we needed to provide input parameters into complex air dispersion models,” said Freeman. “These parameters included physical dimensions such as stack heights and diameters that were easy to identify. The more important parameters were independent variables such as release rates, temperature, and flow rates. This was where Palisade’s @RISK was particularly helpful. We were able to model the worst-case to best-case scenarios for each parameter in our models to show long-term exposure, as well as contributions from individual sources.”
UNDP now employs @RISK to correlate local industries’ impact on air quality in Kuwait. Using Monte Carlo simulation, UNDP looks at potential ranges of impacts. The analyses can show quite conclusively, for instance, that a particular area with specific companies may not be the sole contributors to poor air quality, and contribute significantly less than initially considered.
Freeman concluded, “The ongoing work with KEPA has meant Palisade’s products are a very integral part of the success of this program. Pretty much if we don’t use @RISK at least once a day, it means we’re on vacation.”
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