Novelis Uses @RISK, PrecisionTree for High Risk R&D Project Valuation

Novelis, the world’s largest aluminum rolling and recycling company, had a clear dilemma: The company had little Novelis Uses @RISK, PrecisionTree for High Risk R&D Project Valuationstructure in their process in evaluating the risks associated with projects. According to Dave MacAdam, Senior Manager of Innovation Strategy at Novelis:

“The process was perfunctory and overly reliant on input from the commercial side. While commercial input is necessary, we found more information from the scientific side of the company was needed to accurately assess risk and more integration was needed between those two schools of thought.”

Through working with different stake-holders and experts across Novelis, MacAdam started to introduce quantitative analysis to their R&D process, providing more opportunity to optimize their R&D project portfolio. This change included the implementation of Palisade’s @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite, which introduced a method in which models could be built that incorporated all assumptions from Novelis’s commercial and scientific teams. Through the utilization of the technology, MacAdam was able to accomplish four very critical goals:

  • Identify all risks that could impede project success
  • Determine a project’s target rate of return, holding period and predicted success at each stage of the project
  • Pinpoint a project’s expected success rate
  • Create distributions that highlight the probability of key project outcomes

MacAdam believes having the appropriate data in an easy-to-understand format makes his job of selling the viability of projects to much easier:

“We’re all making sausage, and no one wants to see how it gets made. The more succinct and   clear you make those graphs, the more effective the decision-making process can be.”

To read the full case study, click here.

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