TODAY! Simulating this year’s NCAA Tournament with @RISK!

11am EDT, 16 March 2015

Start your week off with a fun webinar presented by Andrew Pulvermacher of Nighthawk Intelligence.

According to ESPN Magazine, the NCAA tournament is one of the most wagered-on events in sports. Veteran bookmakers estimate bets range from $12 billion to $26 billion (roughly the GDP of Honduras).

If you’re looking for that edge to improve your office pool odds, join this free live webcast for specifically focused on simulating this year’s NCAA tournament with @RISK. Using publically available data, you’ll be able to tame March Madness by managing uncertainty.

Foundation concepts:

  • Dealing with Uncertainty
  • Compare Webinar estimates to those of ESPN and WSJ (if available during time of webinar)

UPDATE: View the recorded webinar here. 


  1. what can happen if i model using a different type of distribution, also how the value of standard deviation afect the final results. Maybe that itself worth a look creating different scenarios for different values.

    1. @Alex
      Short Answer: Using a different distribution and/or stdev will result in different probabilities.

      Longer Answer: One way to calibrate your model for accuracy is to compare your odds with actual performance. Although you can use the norm. dist. to easily model uncertainty, you can build different sim models for the NCAA tournaments (I calibrated mine using the 1985 thru 2014 tournaments to calibrate inputs).

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