In the article, Palisade Vice President Randy Heffernan describes the model developed by Palisade trainer and consultant Fernando Hernández as follows:
"By running 50,000 iterations in a Monte Carlo simulation and mapping out the likely winners in a decision tree, Hernández created a model that depicts the probabilities of different teams winning at different stages, and calculates the overall odds of each team winning the championship."
The model predicts that Brazil, with its home-field advantage, has a 17% chance to take home the Cup. Without home-field advantage, Germany would likely triumph, with a 19.9% chance of winning.
Heffernan adds the unfortunate fact that the U.S. stands a mere 2% chance of victory.
Read the original article in the Risk Management Monitor here.
For more information on the model and how it was developed, check out the case study here: How to win the World Cup Office Pool: Use DecisionTools Suite to Choose the Champions.