One of Palisade’s most vocal supporters in the higher education sector is Professor Roy Nersesian, who teaches energy courses at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. Roy not only utilizes Palisade solutions in the classroom, but he has written a series of books published by Palisade on risk modeling. His latest offering, Energy Risk Modeling, examines how @RISK, PrecisionTree and Evolver are utilized by a wide range of traditional and alternative energy industries. A sampling of topics covered include:
A sampling of topics include:
Modeling payoffs of oil drilling, using both PrecisionTree and @RISK
Analyzing the economics of a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export project where uncertain variables (cost of natural gas extraction, cost of liquefaction, cost of transportation and the price of LNG in the intended foreign market) are modeled and simulated in @RISK.
Optimizing an oil refinery to maximize profits and valuing a real option of purchasing a coal-fired plant using Evolver, shown to have a greater predictive efficacy than Excel’s built-in Solver.
Modeling solar panel and wind turbine power outputs by factoring cloud cover, temperature, time of day and wind speed, while optimizing said uncontrollable energy sources with uncontrollable demand to closely match daily energy demand with power generated.
- Projecting hydropower output in terms of percent capacity using rainfall, evaporation and dam leakage as probabilistic variables.
There is an almost endless stream of potential risk factors to be considered by decision-makers in the energy sector, and Energy Risk Modeling clearly demonstrates how Palisade solutions can assist in planning for and avoiding potentially disastrous obstacles. More real-life examples of Palisade’s utilization in the energy sector can be found on Palisade’s case study page.