“Decision Trees and the Value of Flexibility II” in Oil & Gas Monitor: Taking another look at “Bad” projects

Rafael Hartke continues his series with "Decision Trees and the Value of Flexibility II" in Oil & Gas Monitor.

Hartke writes, "It’s a no-brainer that a good project with many chances to achieve success is better than one with only one chance.

"But what about a bad project? Intuition immediately tells us that repeating a project with negative outcomes is a bad idea. It has also been said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results, right?

"Turns out that in this instance both intuition and common sense are wrong."

Hartke uses decision trees to demonstrate how a "bad" project can be turned around, through investing a small amount in testing up front.