Rafael Hartke's column in the April issue of Oil & Gas Monitor covers "Application and Benefits of Risk Analysis for Decision Making in the Oil Industry."
"Contrary to what may seem obvious on the surface, the driving force behind risk analysis is not statistics, simulation or intricate mathematical models – it is actually much simpler than that. To put it in basic terms, risk analysis is the acknowledgement that there is uncertainty over the assumptions of the project. Statistics and simulation are only tools that help model this uncertainty, and only when we recognize uncertainty over the assumptions of a project can we begin to consider appropriate actions and mitigation strategies."
Rafael Hartke is an Oil and Energy Industry Consultant at Palisade Corporation, where he assists in the development and strategy of quantitative risk analysis methods geared towards the energy industry. He also served as a Financial Engineer in Risk Management at Brazilian-based energy corporation, Petrobras, where he created risk models for complex investment projects and assessed project risks for medium and large projects, including Brazilian Pre-Salt giant fields, projects in the Gulf of Mexico, and offshore infrastructure projects. Palisade Corporation is the provider of the world’s leading risk and decision analysis software, @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite.