Stress Testing State Budgets

In this time of record-setting budget deficits for states across the US, analyzing different scenarios for balancing state budgets has become all too commonplace. No longer do states have the luxury – if they ever did – of applying the “same old” standard increases across the board without making fundamental changes.  In a recent white […]

2011 Risk Conferences Series: Amsterdam, Mexico City, Rio de Jaineiro, Sydney, and Las Vegas

“Another great conference – well done! It’s always a stimulating and thought-provoking experience, and great hospitality.” – Michael Brand, Captum Capital Over 100 delegates attended the 2011 Palisade Risk Conference at the historic West Indische Huise in Amsterdam in March. Over the course of the two day conference, industry experts presented a selection of real-world […]

Reinsurance Decisions and Monte Carlo Simulation

In Vol 1, Issue 2, 2010 edition of Insurance Markets and Companies: Analyses and Actuarial Computations, authors Lina S. Chan and Domingo Castelo Joaquin apply Monte Carlo simulation to support the reinsurance decision of a medical insurer. The article, entitled “Using simulation to support the reinsurance decision of a medical stop-loss provider,” presents a simplified […]

Squeezing the Risk Out of Reinsurance

A recent and very telling study by two actuarial experts makes clear the important perspective and depth that can be added to financial risk analysis by running Monte Carlo simulations with different probability functions for the same variable.   Writing about a hypothetical case in the reinsurance industry, Lina Chan and Domingo Joaquin sought to […]

Monte Carlo Simulation and Cancer Risk in Atom Bomb Survivors in Japan

An interesting article appeared in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute in October 2010, in which authors Igor Shuryak, Rainer K. Sachs, and David J. Brenner discuss whether the age at which Japanese victims of the atom bomb were exposed to radiation influenced their likelihood of developing radiation-induced cancer later in life.  The study, […]

Model railways: Palisade talks risk analysis to

Earlier in 2011, this blog looked at the role risk analysis could play in the complex decision-making process surrounding investment in rail travel.  This was prompted by ongoing discussions about the UK’s proposed high-speed rail link and fuelled by the Slovak Rail Company’s use of @RISK in its own funding strategy. This and the full […]

Unknown Unknowns – Probabilistic Modeling in Projects

Yuri Raydugin, P.Eng, MBA, PhD, Principal Consultant at Risk Services & Solutions, Inc. points out that project management practitioners recognize the need to consider “unknown unknowns” in project risk management.  However, clear and consistent recommendations on incorporating these uncertainties into risk models have yet to be proposed. In a recent white paper, Dr. Raydugin outlines […]