As presented by Andre Lowe at the 2010 Palisade Risk Conference, Las Vegas, November 4-5, 2010.
Intel Corporation‘s Embedded and Communications Group (ECG) delivers an enhanced IA technology portfolio for embedded and communications market segments. ECG is broken into three divisions, Embedded Computing Division (ECD), Low-Power Embedded Products Division (LEPD) and Performance Products Division (PPD). ECG’s products are either Adopt (server, desktop, mobile), Modify (LV Processors, Mobile CPU + Server Chipsets) and Create (system on a chip, San Clemente).
Gossamer Lightning [name masked] is a typical “Create” project. Determining the optimal strategy for GL required balancing various investment scenarios, headcount decisions, and target market choices. Additionally, there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty involved in important factors such as bill-of-materials (BOM) costs, average selling price (ASP), and volume expectations. ECG uses risk analysis and decision trees in a process of decision making under uncertainty to work through these issues. Monte Carlo analysis has been key in understanding the risks and expected returns of the project.