Day: September 7, 2010

@RISK Software Open House in Long Beach, CA with Andrew Sich

Have you ever wanted to take Palisade’s @RISK software for a guided test drive?

On Tuesday, September 14th, Palisade will host a complimentary open house event in Long Beach where you will be able to follow a product demonstration of the new @RISK 5.5.1.

Andrew Sich will show several example models that illustrate how Monte Carlo simulation can be used for applications in risk analysis. You’ll learn how to add uncertainty to your own models, correlate inputs, use historical data to create best fit distributions, run simulations and sensitivity analyses, and then fundamentally transform decision making discussions by communicating  in “ranges”, “probabilities”, and “likelihood of occurrence” – leaving single point estimates, as well as best-case, worst-case, and most-likely estimates to historians.  Complimentary trial versions of @RISK and the full DecisionTools Suite software will be provided.

The event will be held from Tuesday, September 14th, 11:00AM to 1:00PM at:

Renaissance Long Beach Hotel
111 East Ocean Boulevard
Long Beach, CA 90802
Phone: (562)437-5900

There is no charge for the event, and light refreshments will be served. To register, please contact Andrew at or 607-277-8000 x 330.

Separate and private meetings at your facility to discuss licensing and training options, pricing, and perhaps a shorter demo of @RISK for your colleagues are also available.

For more information:

Andrew Sich
Regional Sales Manager
Palisade Corporation

Phone: 1-800-432-7475 (ext. 330)
or 1-607-277-8000 (ext. 330)
Cell: 1-607-279-6266
Fax: 1-607-277-8001

DecisionTools Suite presentations in Central NJ and Philadelphia with Dave Bristol

Palisade’s Dave Bristol will deliver public presentations of the DecisionTools Suite in Madison, NJ on Tuesday September 21st, and Philadelphia on Thursday September 23rd.

During the two-hour presentations, Dave will review all the components of the Suite. He is also going to take questions regarding features, functionality, modeling, applications, and anything else about which you are curious. It will be a valuable event for any of you who are interested in getting to know more about the Suite, whether you’re just evaluating a trial version or you’ve already purchased a license.

September 21st, 11:00AM to 1:00PM at:
The Madison Hotel
One Convent Rd.
Morristown, New Jersey 07960
Phone: (973) 285-1800

September 23rd, 11:00AM to 1:00PM at:
Hilton Garden Inn Philadelphia
1100 Arch Street
Philadelphia, PA 19107
Phone: (215) 923-0100

Contact Dave Bristol at to register for either event.

If you have a group of users (either prospective or active) and would like Dave to meet you at your office in NJ or PA, on-site meetings are available on the off-days during the week of the 20th.

For more information:

Dave Bristol, Eastern Region Sales Manager
Palisade Corporation
Tel (Direct): 802-876-7906
Tel (Toll-free): 800-432-7475, x333
Fax: 607-277-8001

@RISK Quick Tips: Contingent Contract Clause Valuation

Modeling Uncertain Number of Events, Each with Uncertain Parameters
Often in contract negotiations, a supplier of a product or service may agree with customers to pay a penalty if certain performance targets have not been met. In many cases, the supplier does not really have a good idea of the true possible impact of this clause, for example in terms of the average penalty that should be expected.

In this model, we use Monte Carlo simulation to assess such penalties depending on various performance levels.

The model could be extended (and explored in more detail in Palisade training courses) to evaluating whether one or more investment proposals that would improve performance (e.g. by reducing the variability or improving the average performance) should be accepted. The costs and benefits of each these projects could be compared in a single simulation using the Simtable feature.

» Download the model: PenaltyClause.xls