@RISK Quick Tips: Six Sigma DMAIC, Roll Through Yield Analysis

DMAIC – or Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control – is a process used by Six Sigma practitioners to improve existing products or processes. Imagine you are a costume jewelry manufacturer, coating inexpensive silver with thin layers of gold. You import materials and components from China. A small number of components are always defective, but […]

The Great Moderation and Tail Risk

The so-called Great Moderation, the economic period that began in the late 1980s and ended with the financial crisis of 2007, was characterized by less volatility and more stability and predictability in the financial markets. I recently saw commentary that identified one of the causes of the economy’s’ plunge from moderation to recession as "Monte […]

Capturing Dependencies with Correlations – Part III: Simulated Correlations

We’ve seen how you can define correlation coefficients in your models to describe the relationship between two or more variables. But during an actual risk analysis simulation, how can you be sure that the values sampled from the correlated inputs really matched that coefficient? @RISK risk simulation software enables you to see the actual simulated […]

Taking the guesswork out of water pipe replacement, using risk modeling software

Bournemouth & West Hampshire Water (BWHW) provides clean drinking water to around half a million people in an area in the south-west of the UK spanning over 1000 square kilometres. This amounts to an average of about 150 million litres of drinking water every day, through nearly 3000 kilometres of water mains. This is no […]

@RISK Quick Tips: Event and Operational Risks

The following model is example of the many different types of applications @RISK can be used for. Receive dozens more models in the books Financial Models Using Simulation I & II. In many circumstances one wishes to calculate the aggregate impact of many possible yes/no type events. For example, it is often important to answer […]

Big Data

The August issue of McKinsey Quarterly is devoted to the year’s ten most significant "tech-enabled" business trends.  Of the ten, the one that caught my eye was Experimentation and Big Data.  Like many of us in IT-based businesses, I had been wide awake to Big Data–which are really nano-data in vast quantity–but only peripherally aware […]

Capturing Dependencies with Correlations – Part II: Correlated Time Series

In @RISK risk modeling software, you can correlate a time series that has a similar set of input distributions in each time period. You just tell @RISK which variables in your risk analysis model to correlate in each time period. @RISK automatically creates a correlation instance – a copy of the same correlation matrix for […]

@RISK Software Open House in Long Beach, CA with Andrew Sich

Have you ever wanted to take Palisade’s @RISK software for a guided test drive? On Tuesday, September 14th, Palisade will host a complimentary open house event in Long Beach where you will be able to follow a product demonstration of the new @RISK 5.5.1. Andrew Sich will show several example models that illustrate how Monte […]

DecisionTools Suite presentations in Central NJ and Philadelphia with Dave Bristol

Palisade’s Dave Bristol will deliver public presentations of the DecisionTools Suite in Madison, NJ on Tuesday September 21st, and Philadelphia on Thursday September 23rd. During the two-hour presentations, Dave will review all the components of the Suite. He is also going to take questions regarding features, functionality, modeling, applications, and anything else about which you […]