I recently saw an interesting @RISK cashflow model from the portable phone industry. It modeled the uncertainty in the length and decline of overall market demand for a particular technology against five strategies for getting various application products to market as soon as possible.
Using @RISK’s Simtable function, combined with Excel’s Index function, it was possible to run multiple simulations and see which strategy could take best advantage of the potential market, given the uncertainties in the development process, the possibility of competitors, the market take-up and the margins that might be achieved.
As is often the case in all aspects of life, the simulation revealed that ‘a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush’; it’s very comforting to know that @RISK risk analysis solutions can cut through loads of detail and come back with an answer that echoes received wisdom!
Ian Wallace, ACMA
Palisade Training Team
