Prediction Markets

Although they’ve been around for the last 20 years or so, prediction markets have begun to make news for their application in business operations. Heralded early on in books like James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds, prediction markets are a fascinating alternative to traditional forecasting methods, such Monte Carlo simulation, which extrapolate future events from […]

@RISK Quick Tips: Using Percentile Distribution Parameters

@RISK, Palisade’s risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation, has many features that help you create powerful models for decision making under uncertainty. This model demonstrates the use of the alternate, percentile parameter formulation. In this case we assume that we have decided to use a Normal distribution to represent the arrival time of someone […]