@RISK Quick Tips: Automating @RISK risk analysis software with VBA

Presented at the Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Conference New York CityChris Albright, author of the book VBA for Modelers, presented a number of examples of how to automate @RISK, RISKOptimizer, and StatTools in Excel using Excel’s VBA and Palisade’s built-in object-oriented Excel Developer Kit. These examples include production applications, scheduling applications, World Series simulation, […]

Free Webcast This Thursday: “The Use of the DecisionTools Suite in Biotechnology Project and Portfolio Decision Making”

On Thursday, September 2, 2010, Svetlana A. Sigalova will present a free live webcast entitled. "The Use of the DecisionTools Suite in Biotechnology Project and Portfolio Decision Making " Given the uncertainty of outcomes in the biotech industry, consideration of variability is an inherent part of the decision process. Often, the mean (average) is not […]

Free Webcast This Thursday: The Use of the DecisionTools Suite in Biotechnology Project and Portfolio Decision Making

Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a global biotechnology company based out of Cambridge, MA. The Company’s strategy is to commercialize its products both independently and in collaboration with major pharmaceutical companies. Vertex’s product pipeline is focused on viral diseases, cystic fibrosis, inflammation, autoimmune diseases, cancer, and pain. Given the uncertainty of outcomes in the biotech industry, […]

Are solar panels a sound investment? A risk analysis case study

The UK’s new coalition government has said that, as part of its ‘Green Deal’, it will encourage home energy efficiency improvements paid for by savings from energy bills. It seems likely that, in the year that energy regulator Ofgem warned of 20 percent electricity price hikes by 2020, this initiative will include solar panel technology […]

Market decline versus speed to market – ‘A bird in the hand…’

I recently saw an interesting @RISK cashflow model from the portable phone industry. It modeled the uncertainty in the length and decline of overall market demand for a particular technology against five strategies for getting various application products to market as soon as possible.  Using @RISK’s Simtable function, combined with Excel’s Index function, it was […]

@RISK Quick Tips: Event and Operational Risk Analysis

@RISK risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation is used for a wide variety of applications. In this model, we have an example of a general usage to address Operational Risk. In many circumstances one wishes to calculate the aggregate impact of many possible yes/no type events. For example, it is often important to answer […]

Rating the Polls

With the New York State primaries coming up September 14 and the general election on November 2, I predict that as soon as summer turns the corner into September, we’ll start hearing lots and lots about polls that predict election outcomes.  To find out if there was any early discussion of polls, polling, and outcomes, […]

Graphing with your Mouse – Part III: Scatter Plots from Tornado Diagrams in @RISK

You can quickly generate a graph of any simulated output relative to a given input using the tornado graphs in @RISK risk analysis software. Just drag a bar from the tornado graph onto a blank space, and a scatter plot of that input relative to the simulated output appears. This is a great communication tool […]

Is @RISK a forecasting tool or a decision-making tool?

Most people understand that @RISK and Monte Carlo simulation are designed to be an improvement on single-point estimates.  In practice, however, I often see people using @RISK as a forecasting tool to get yet another single-point estimate, such as the 90th percentile, without putting it into the context of the potential range of outcomes. This […]