@RISK Quick Tips: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

@RISK risk modeling software is used for a wide variety of applications in financial risk analysis forecasting, investments, and banking. Below is an application of a discounted cash flow analysis.

Discounted cash flow (DCF) calculations are a frequent example of the use of @RISK. In the example model, the sources of risk are the revenue growth rate and the variable costs as a percentage of sales. After taking into account the assumed investment, and applying a discount factor, the DCF is derived. Following the simulation, the average (mean) of the DCF is known as the net present value (NPV).

In this example, the results show that the average DCF is positive (about 40), whereas the probability of a negative DCF is about 15%. The decision as to whether to proceed or not with this project will therefore depend on the risk perspective or tolerance of the decision-maker.

This example has also been extended to calculate the distribution of bonus payments on the assumption that a bonus is paid whenever the net DCF is larger than a fixed amount (such as 50). It also uses some of the @RISK Statistics functions RiskMean, RiskTarget, and RiskTargetD to work out the average net DCF, the probability that the net DCF is negative and the probability that a bonus is paid.

» Example model: CashFlow.xls

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