Making Optimal Choices, or Just Making Choices? Part 4

It has taken four entries but I’ll finish this blog stream now with a discussion on optimisation optimisation. That’s not a typo. It’s an art form that is analogous to elegant modelling, as opposed to ‘just’ modelling. The tipping competition model not only opened my eyes to the world of optimisation but also that not […]

Making Optimal Choices, or Just Making Choices? Part 3

Part 2 of this blog ended with me very quickly stating that the MotoGP tipping comp optimiser was identical in structure to a portfolio optimisation problem, where the portfolio could contain stock or other assets, or even projects. Let’s look at this in a little more detail as I’m sure you’re reading this to find […]

Risk in the financial sector – have we learned any lessons?

As part of his pre-Budget report in December, the UK chancellor, Alistair Darling, announced a one-off super-tax on bankers’ bonuses. This followed ongoing threats by bankers that they will leave the UK if their (bonus) earning potential is curtailed. Unsurprisingly, this angered the British tax-payer who, thanks to the excessive risks taken by the banks, […]

Making Optimal Choices, or Just Making Choices? Part 2

In my last blog entry I introduced the notion that optimal decision making wasn’t ‘on the radar’ for many clients in Australasia, and laid out a couple of ideas why. I too once focussed on Monte Carlo simulation rather than decision evaluation, but last year the most obscure event changed that. Call me a nerd […]

New Approaches to Risk and Decision Analysis

Risk analysis and decision-making tools are relevant to most organisations, in most industries around the world.  This is demonstrated by the speaker line-up at this year’s European User Conference, an event at which we believe it is important to bring together customers from a wide range of market sectors. We are holding ‘New Approaches to […]

Making Optimal Choices, or Just Making Choices? Part 1

Something has troubled me for some time regarding the choices being made in risk land. I train and work with many clients whom have adopted Monte Carlo simulation techniques (via @RISK for Excel) into the day-to-day running of their businesses. By doing so they (hopefully) now have a good understanding of the exposure they are […]

Rumors of Death

Allan Roth, who writes a blog for CBS Money Watch called "The Irrational Investor," recently asked his readers a rhetorical question: Is Financial Monte Carlo Simulation Dead? Since rhetorical questions demand an answer in less time than it takes the questioner to draw breath, Roth obliged.    While expressing sympathy for the investors who were […]

Quantitative risk assessment under utilised for infrastructure projects

Why is it that most of the high profile projects managed by the government in the UK all ultimately become beset by problems? A number of projects jump to mind – the Millennium Dome, Wembley Stadium and currently the NHS IT. All three have been plagued by developmental delays and financial mismanagement. Recently, yet another […]

New @RISK 5.5.1 and DecisionTools Suite 5.5.1 Now Available!

New DecisionTools Suite 5.5.1 is a maintenance update that has been fully translated into Spanish, German, French, Portuguese and Japanese. It features simulation of password-protected worksheets in @RISK as well as an integrated RISKOptimizer toolbar. In addition, you can now also launch any DecisionTools program from within any other program already running. If you still […]