There is an assumption that drives all of our expectations for how our economy will be in the future. That assumption is one of endless economic growth. Clearly endless exponential growth is impossible. Yet that is what we base all of our expectations upon. We all agree that zero or negative economic growth is bad (just look around now at the effects of the Great Recession). But we also know logically that 2% or 4% annual growth every year leads to an exponential growth outcome that is unsustainable.
In this free webcast, Dr. William Strauss models the next 100 years, based on the last century’s data. The experiment in this webcast is about the future. If the model can very closely replicate the last 100 years, what does it have to say about the next 100 years? The experiment uses @RISK’s risk analysis and Monte Carlo techniques to generate new combinations of parameters for each of tens of thousands of runs of the simulation. Changes in the parameters represent potential exogenous policy choices.
The “doing what you did gets you what you got” scenario leads to a surprising and unsettling outcome. The experiments using Evolver (genetic algorithm optimization software) do find a path that works. Obviously if it is not “business-as-usual” that leads to a stable outcome, it is some other way. The policy choices that lead to a stable outcome suggest that the future of capitalism is not going to be what we expect it to be.
Palisade is pleased to host this presentation from Dr. William Strauss.
William Strauss is the President and founder of FutureMetrics. He brings more than thirty years of strategic planning, project management, data analysis, and modeling experience into the company’s stock of knowledge capital. Bill’s professional history includes executive positions as director, president, and senior vice president, as well as positions as senior analyst and field coordinator. He has an MBA (specializing in Finance) and a PhD (Economics). Read more of Dr. Strauss’ bio here.