2010: A Model Year for Risk Analysis

Resolved for 2010:

• No more risk assessment on the backs of envelopes.

• Take time for statistical analysis of past experience.

• Use decent Monte Carlo software.
• Choose variables wisely.
• Consider carefully the implications of probability distributions.
• Continue decision evaluation even after the chosen course of action begins.
• Revisit, rerun, and adjust model frequently. 

• Make better decisions by the numbers.


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