2010: A Model Year for Risk Analysis

Resolved for 2010: • No more risk assessment on the backs of envelopes. • Take time for statistical analysis of past experience.   • Use decent Monte Carlo software.   • Choose variables wisely.   • Consider carefully the implications of probability distributions.   • Continue decision evaluation even after the chosen course of action […]

Making Risk & Decision analysis accessible to all

It’s clear that the financial crisis has exposed a number of failings in the practice of risk management. In my last post I talked about the relevance risk analysis and the disciplines of ‘quantitative risk management’ (QRM) and ‘decision making under uncertainty’ (DMU) are to all sizes of organisations, be it large or small.  However, […]

Risk & Decision analysis – it’s not a dark art

The recent turbulence in the global economy has projected the word ‘risk’ into many everyday conversations, both commercial and personal: the unacceptable risks taken by fund managers which led to the collapse of major financial institutions; companies risking bankruptcy as a result of recession; the risk of people losing their jobs – and potentially their […]

Monte Carlo, Where Speed Counts

Apparently the real test of computer chip performance, that is, speed, is spreadsheet simulation. PC Magazine blogger Michael Miller recently published a comparison of four new computer chips, two form Intel and two from Advanced Micro Devices.  Interestingly, Miller was not comparing the two similar notebook computers running these chips, just the chips themselves.   […]

The Cat is Out of the Bag

At November’s supercomputing conference in Portland, Oregon, IBM announced that its researchers working with a team from Stanford University had succeeded in developing an accurate simulation of human brain function. The simulation will be capable of emulating sensation, perception, action, interaction and cognition.   This algorithm simulating a living neural network, called BlueMatter (spelled as […]