Allocating Contingencies to Risk Events that were identified in a Risk Register

In a previous blog, I presented a very simple way to allocate contingencies to uncertain cost elements in the project risk management process. However, that methodology works well when there are not risk events that affect a cost element or a group of cost elements. A risk event is described by two elements: the probability […]

Risk Studies

This month geographers Pierpaolo Mudu and Elise Beck put out a call for papers for the next annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers. Their session will focus on the "social geography" of risk. Social–or human–geography is devoted to identifying cultural, political, and economic patterns that play out on the physical landscape.   Needless […]

A Random Walk

It has struck me often that the target of statistical analysis writ large is randomness. Because it is the fundamental concern of all the techniques for decision making under uncertainty that I try to track–risk analysis, genetic algorithm optimization, and neural network prediction–I assumed I understood the term randomness pretty well. But it turns out […]

Allocating Contingencies to Uncertain Cost Elements in a Cost Risk Analysis Model

In a previous entry to this blog I discussed how to assess the contingency required in a cost risk analysis study. The next step is to allocate the calculated contingency to uncertain cost elements that drive the variation in the total cost of the project. In this way, the contingency can be better managed and […]

Targeted Analyses and Compelling Communication: A Formula for Successful Value Creation in Management Science

Michael A. Kubica is Founder and President of Applied Quantitative Sciences, Inc. He has over 18 years’ experience within the healthcare industry, and has been providing quantitative sciences consultancy since 1999. Michael has extensive experience in providing quantitative decision support solutions for leading pharmaceutical, medical device/diagnostics, and biotechnology companies, addressing a wide range of business […]


I have always assumed that decision making under uncertainty is just a term for the situation facing every hapless executive without benefit of a quant geek or a set of decision analysis tools. But this week, in talking with Unilever’s Sven Roden, I discovered that, used as a proper noun with initial caps–Decision Making Under […]

So You Think You Have the Right Data?

Andrea Dickens is a Decision Analysis Group Leader at Unilever’s Finance Academy. Andrea joined Unilever in 1988 as a statistician. Since then she has had a number of roles in Unilever, but all with one thing in common: managing and analysing uncertainty. Andrea now leads the Decision Analysis Group, which has been developing and applying […]

Interpretive and Ethical Issues in using Monte Carlo Simulations to Support Executive Decision-Making: How to avoid giving your boss impressive, but misleading guidance

Dr. Robert Ameo is principal of Market Modelers, LLC, with over 20 years’ experience in health care management, marketing and business development. Prior to founding Market Modelers, he served in the corporate development group at Johnson & Johnson. He is a recognized expert and innovator in the modeling and forecasting of new technology adoption and […]