Assessing the Probability of Meeting Two Competing Targets using @RISK 5.5

The latest version of @RISK (risk analysis software, Monte Carlo software for Excel), has a new graphing tool that will let you create a scatter plots using any two outputs of your risk model. 

For example, if you construct an integrated schedule and cost risk model you can easily evaluate the distributions of the duration of the project and its cost. However, you might  also be interested to know the probability of meeting a target duration and cost at the same time.

The duration and the cost of the project can be defined as outputs of the Monte Carlo simulation model. Once the simulation is run, you can assess the total cost and duration at the 85th percentile as seen in the figures below. Here you can see that the duration at this percentile is 1500 days and the cost is $11.35 Millions.

Next, you can create a scatter plot with these two outputs and locate the delimiters at the target values for both variables as shown below. Here you can see that there is only a 2.9% chance that those two targets will be exceeded and there is a 72.8% that both targets will be met. You can also evaluate the probability that only one target is met.

I hope that this new tool can help you to understand in a better way the interaction between a two outputs of your @RISK risk analysis model.

Dr. Javier Ordóñez
Director of Custom Development

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