The Finance Guy

Up here in New York–where everyone is eyeing the market anxiously and many are still muttering woulda-shoulda recriminations about risk assessment–a gust of fresh air just blew in. It came up from–of all places–Florida, where the real estate market has been reduced to rubble and there are thousands of empty hotel rooms.  But even in […]

Further Successes with DecisionTools Suite training in Europe

Following the introduction of the DecisionTools Suite 5.0 in 2008, we modified the structure of the public training courses, which consist of a two-day @RISK course and a consecutive one day course on the other DTS products.  Although this has required a major commitment from customers in terms of the time away from their office, […]

March without the Madness

Two behavioral economists at the Wharton School have recently published a statistical analysis of win-loss patterns in NCAA basketball games.  Jonah Berger and Devin Pope collected data from more than 6500 games since 2005, and guided by a psychological/ economic model called Prospect Theory, they cranked their win-loss data through a specialized regression analysis (probably […]

Expert Advice is Needed in Tough Times

When the economy takes a turn for the worse, tough times call for cutbacks. Cutbacks might include extras you don’t really need, goods that haven’t yet outlived their usefulness, or services you can perform yourself. Just because you can – and perhaps should – do without some of the ‘luxuries’ does not mean everything should […]

The Innovation Imperative in Manufacturing

In a recent report The Innovation Imperative in Manufacturing – How the United States Can restore its edge, produced jointly by The Boston Consulting Group, the National Association of Manufacturers and the Manufacturing Institute, The United States ranked #8 out of 110 countries in innovation leadership.      The Top Ten List (overall) Singapore South Korea Switzerland […]

Some Best Practice Principles in Excel Modelling

This blog briefly posts some fairly standard (but not fully accepted, and more often simply not implemented!) “best practice principles” in Excel modelling. A later blog discusses a related topic as to whether risk modelling (when building Monte Carlo simulation models using @RISK in Microsoft Excel) requires the same (or a modified) set of principles. […]

Advanced Analytics for Business Intelligence

Business Intelligence (BI) is all the rage. Businesses want business intelligence. Analytics and reports are at the heart of BI. Decision makers want decision intelligence. Analysis, especially quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, yields more thorough intelligence for effective decision making under uncertainty. Some, Ralph Kimball among them, challenge that advanced analytical tools, “as […]