As most Palisade customers know, computer processing speed is important in both Monte Carlo software and packages for genetic algorithm optimization. So when I came across an InfoWorld article on the acceleration capabilities of GPU-based processing, I clicked right through to find out more about the gizmos called GPUs. A GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) is […]

# Monthly Archives: January 2009

## Is Beta Better?

From a theoretical perspective, the Beta distribution is intimately related to the Binomial distribution. In this context it represents the distribution of the uncertainty of the probability parameter of a Binomial process based on a certain number of observations. As a distribution of probability, its range is clearly between zero and one, and as it […]

## Six Sigma’s Thirst for Information and Analytics

About Six months ago, Palisade started its Six Sigma Webinar series. We have had many experts in Six Sigma, Lean, and Design for Six Sigma give presentations on topics ranging from DFSS Design Optimization, Using Monte Carlo Simulation in LSS, to Creating a high performance culture. All of these webinar’s were hugely successful and highly […]

## How Far Can You Throw an Economist?

"Remember," a good friend of mine who is an investment adviser said the other day, "that economics is a behavioral science." This observation was born out the very next day by all the blogging activity triggered by Princeton economist’s Uwe Reinhardt’s New York Times blog, "Can Economists Be Trusted?" Many of the points made in […]

## Who Mentioned Black Swans? Difficulties in estimating the probability of low probability events

The recent credit crisis has brought into focus some of the difficulties in estimating and calibrating risk analysis models in which events of low probability are used. For example, suppose a AAA-rated security is deemed to have a 1% chance of default in a particular year. How good is that 1% estimate? More generally, suppose […]

## The Art of Siffing

In the days just ahead of the Obama inauguration last week, there was a good deal of speculation in the press about the kind of recommendations the new administration’s economic team would be likely to make. In the midst of this, Princeton economist Uwe Reinhardt posted an essay that offered an unvarnished view of how […]

## The Scientific Method for Management

The scientific method for management is growing in popularity because it allows for organizational decisions—whether by business or government—to be formulated under more rigorous considerations. The quantitative approach to risk and decision making, with tools such as Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite, is one method for making management decisions with the aid of data and science. In […]

## The Shape of Things to Come

It’s Inauguration Day, when everyone is looking to the future, which is always a brighter spot than the particular one we happen to be in. But there are of course people who look to the future every day. They make a profession of anticipating it. These folks, from meteorologists to economists to financiers to farmers, […]

## It Goes on All the Time in Your Head

Let’s depart for the moment from probabilities and the details of distributions to consider the latest development in neural network computing. While much of current neural network technology is based on simulating the interaction of simple computational “neurons,” the British magazine The Engineer reports that engineers at Manchester, Sheffield, Southampton and Cambridge Universities are engaged […]

## Getting the Full Picture – Combining Monte Carlo Simulation with Decision Tree Analysis Part II

In Part I combining simulation and decision tree techniques was introduced. But what does that actually give you? What meaningful results are created to justify the work? Obviously there are good things to come, or I wouldn’t be bringing it up! A regular spreadsheet model can produce a distribution of outcomes like this: But […]