For today, I am going to take a detour from my regular Six Sigma and Design for Six Sigma topics to discuss our world economy. I am not an expert on economics, but have to ask, How did we allow ourselves as a country get to this point? Were the experts at the helm of the economic wheel peering into a cloudy crystal ball? Did it distort their (or our) ability to make sound decisions based on data based on the analysis of our and the world’s financial positions? Isn’t this the information age? Did we ignore the information and indicators that predicated this financial train wreck? In Palisade’s DMUU (Decision Making Under Uncertainty) Blog they address this issue as well as the safeguard at least one Oil and Gas Company has put into place to avoid disasters.
As a dear friend says to me when we are in a situation that we can’t avoid and we don’t want to be in, “The train is at the station and we have our tickets.” The key now is staying calm and objectively using data to make sound financial decisions using the tools such as Monte Carlo simulation for sound quantitative risk analysis to minimize risk and to make decisions with confidence to steer us out of this situation. There is little sense buying into or wasting our time with the political rhetoric of which candidate did what or didn’t, as they bid for our votes on November 4th . . . but that is another whole topic which I will avoid.
Jim Jubak of MSN Money posted this video “Is it the end of the financial world” on Friday, October 10, 2008. For what it’s worth, his prediction should give us all hope that it isn’t the end of the financial world and that toward the end of October we could even experience a short rally. Let’s hope he isn’t using a cloudy crystal ball either.