Risk Analysis and Evacuating for Gustav

Henry Yennie, a program manager with the Louisiana State Office of Mental Health, began using Palisade Corporation’s Monte Carlo software @RISK after Hurricane Katrina made landfall. He was serving in the
disaster response command center in Baton Rouge, Louisiana and wanted to use data from the family assistance call center  help managers of future disaster response teams predict staffing for call centers.  His risk analysis work didn’t end with his study of call center use, and in fact, he has become one of state’s experts on decision making under uncertainty.  We know, because we heard from Henry a couple of months ago, because he had launched into a new risk assessment study: in case another big storm blew up and New Orleans had to be evacuated, how many school buses should the city have access to?  And where and when should the buses be available?

Of course, we haven’t heard from Henry since Hurricane Gustav made landfall, so we don’t know yet how accurate his study was.  But all reports from New Orleans are that there were enough school buses in the right places at the right time to make for a smooth evacuation. 

More on disaster decision evaluation after Henry checks in with his results.

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