DFSS-based Design Optimization using Design of Experiments and Monte Carlo Simulation

One of the main uses of Monte Carlo simulation in Six Sigma is with DFSS at the planning stage of a new product. Testing different processes on physical manufacturing or service models or prototypes can be cost prohibitive. Monte Carlo simulation allows engineers to simulate thousands of different outcomes on models without the cost and […]

Project risk analysis using Probabilistic Calendars, Part II

As you may have noticed in my previous posting on this subject, @RISK for Project‘s Probabilistic Calendars are a great way of modelling multiple occurrences of the same risk event over a defined period and as a result avoid having to set up lots of risk tasks. Furthermore, you can use them for modelling any […]

Project risk analysis using Probabilistic Calendars

Often seen as a little too sophisticated for many project planners new to Monte Carlo simulation, a Probabilistic Calendar is an elegant way of modelling the uncertainty in resource availability and resource allocation in a project plan. Any project plan—whether in construction, oil & gas exploration and production, manufacturing, environmental remediation, operations management, etc.—is subject […]

Monte Carlo Simulation in Process and Efficiency Improvement

Consulting with Impact, Ltd. is a Rochester, NY-area firm specializing in process and efficiency improvement, using tools such as Lean, Six Sigma, and ISO. The firm has found many uses for Monte Carlo simulation in the Lean Six Sigma process. Here, Ed Biernat, President of Consulting with Impact, discusses how Consulting with Impact uses @RISK […]

Forming partnerships with experts in Six Sigma, LSS, and DFSS

As many Six Sigma black belts know, Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique for Lean Six Sigma and Design for Six Sigma because it allows practitioners to simulate and optimize process variables before implementation. This reduces the time and cost of any Design of Experiment process. Palisade actively forms partnerships with experts in Six […]

Does missing my plane mean that I got my risk assessment wrong?

A while ago I planned to take the last aeroplane of the evening to fly out for a client meeting the next day. Unfortunately the plane was cancelled and I had to miss the meeting. On speaking to the client, he said dryly: “But you are supposed to be a risk manager!” I smiled but […]

Steve Hunt, LSSBB

Whether in DMAIC, Design for Six Sigma (DFSS), Lean projects, or Design of Experiments (DOE), uncertainty and variability lie at the core of any Six Sigma analysis. I’m interested in how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to identify, measure, and root out the causes of variability in production and service processes and designs.

Actuaries Tune Risk Analysis to Improve Decision Making under Uncertainty

Actuaries are more risk-averse than you and I because they advise insurers and pension funds that have a lot at risk.  So they need to be better at decision making under uncertainty.   When they calculate requirements for pension fund investment, life insurance, or long-term care they try to account not only for the uncertainties–say, growth […]

Holly Bailey

Public Relations Representative for Palisade I specialize in communications for technical and scientific companies. During my work for Palisade Corporation over the past decade I have kept a close eye on trends in quantitative decision-making techniques.  I’m keeping this blog to report where and how I find these techniques–such as risk analysis, risk optimization, decision […]

Risk Analysis in Clinical Practice

As medical practice has become more and more “evidence-based,” the role of risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation has expanded rapidly.  Nowhere is this more evident than in recent software introductions that incorporate Monte Carlo software to calculate dosages with extreme precision.  If “dosage” brings to mind a teaspoon and a bottle of cough syrup, […]