Copenhagen Risk Conference covered in "Global Banking & Finance Review"

Global Banking & Finance Review covers the Palisade Copenhagen Risk Conference to be held on March 31st, 2014 at the Bella Sky Comwell Hotel. 

Real-world case studies offering insight into managing risk and uncertainty will be presented by companies including 2L Consulting, Deloitte, The LEGO Group, Technical University of Denmark and Visual Reporting APS.

There will also be practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers as well as one-to-one consulting sessions to discuss specific decision modeling challenges.

» Read the complete article here.

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Schedules Announced for Risk Conferences in Copenhagen, Amsterdam, and Dubai

Presenters include Deloitte Risk Services,
Royal HaskoningDHV, Lego Group, DSM,
Saudi Aramco, Kuwait Petroleum

In their ninth year, the Palisade Risk Conferences have become “must attend” events for quantitative risk and decision analysis professionals. The schedules are set for Copenhagen, Amsterdam, and Dubai. Each day promises a full slate of intensive software training by Palisade trainers, in-depth looks at risk modelling from industry experts, networking opportunties, and the chance to review your own model with Palisade consultants.

Copenhagen, 31st March
Amsterdam, 3rd April
Dubai, 8th April



Other 2014 dates include Bogotá, Madrid, Perth, Brisbane, London, Frankfurt, Johannesburg, and Melbourne, with more dates to be announced soon.

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Global Risks 2014 report Illustrates an Evolving Global Risks Landscape

You don't have to be a risk manager to know that the world faces a range of rapidly changing challenges. But how exactly are these risks changing, and which ones are the most likely, or the most impactful? The World Economic Forum attempts to answer these questions. The Swiss-based independent international organization  aims to improve the state of the world by engaging public, private, and academic leaders  to shape global, regional and industry agendas.

The Forum recently published their 2014 Global Risks Report, which analyzes a survey of over 700 leaders and decision-makers on 31 selected global risks. Survey respondents were asked directly to nominate their risks of highest concern, which placed economic and social issues firmly at the top.

The Risk Report distilled down the survey responses into  the five risks considered most likely and most impactful since 2007 (see below).

As the table illustrates, environmental risks, such as climate change, water scarcity, and extreme weather events have become more prominent since 2011, while health-related risks (pandemics and chronic disease) have become less so. Geopolitical risks such as global governance failure, are now less concerning  than socioeconomic risks (income disparity, unemployment, fiscal crises, etc.).

Cyber attacks are also featured prominently in the matrix, along with the breakdown of critical information infrastructure, reflecting the increasing digitization of economies and societies and their dependence on information and data.

Just as The World Economic Forum aims to help leaders and societies make decisions that will benefit the global community, Palisade's risk management software aims to support  managers and decision makers as they plan for changes to come.

Evolving Global Risks Landscape 2007 - 2014, World Economic Forum Global Risks Report

Click to view the expanded image.
Source: Global Risks reports 2007-2014, World Economic Forum.

 

See also: Using Risk Analysis to measure the impact of climate change

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Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bets and Monte Carlo Simulation

There are a number of applications for risk analysis software and Monte Carlo Simulation, and most offer insight into solving pretty serious situations like public health, workplace safety, budgets, etc. From time-to-time, we find utilizations are less “mission critical” and more “cool.” Such is the case with Dr. Wayne Winston’s use of Palisade’s @RISK. Winston is a professor at the University of Houston, a sports probabilities expert and longtime user of @RISK. In a guest blog post in Risk Management Monitor, Palisade Vice President Randy Heffernan explored Winston’s utilization of Monte Carlo simulation, in relation to so-called “prop bets" for this Sunday's Super Bowl. From the article:

Most bets are relatively straightforward; however, if you’ve ever been to Las Vegas to watch the big game, you’ll find Super Bowl wagers are taken to an entirely different—and more complex—level. In addition to traditional wagers, you’ll find an almost unlimited number of proposition—or “prop”—bets that can stray into more peripheral aspects of the game. Consider the following prop bets from last year’s Super Bowl between the Ravens and 49ers:

  • Who will win Super Bowl MVP?
    Winning bet: Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco at 11/4 odds
     
  • What color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be that is dumped on the winning coach?
    Winning bet: Clear/water at 7/4 odds
     
  • Will Alicia Keys’ rendition of the national anthem be over/under 2:15?
    Winning bet: Over, at 2:42

In the article, Randy offers a comparison of Winston and Vegas’ confidence regarding the number of touchdown passes Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning will throw against the Seahawks on Sunday.

» Read Randy’s full article in Risk Management Monitor

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This Month: Introductory Risk & Decision Analysis Software Demonstrations in Four Different Languages

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK & The DecisionTools Suite This month we are offering our Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite webcast in a variety of languages including German, French, Portuguese and English.

Our Regional Sales Managers and Trainers have designed these webcasts to provide an entry-level introduction into probabilistic analysis and will show how Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques can be applied to your everyday business analyses. If you build models in Excel then Palisade solutions can almost certainly help you to make more informed decisions, right from your desktop.

Sign up today for the webcast presented in the language of your choice!

Deutsch:
Einführung zur Risiko - & Entscheidungsanalyse
mit @RISK und der DecisionTools Suite

11. Februar 2014 - 10:00 am CET
(9:00 am UTC/GMT, 4:00 am EST)
» Jetzt kostenlos registrieren

Français:
Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
avec @RISK et DécisionTools Suite

11 février 2014 - 10:00 am CET
(9:00 am UTC/GMT, 4:00 am EST)
» Inscrivez-vous gratuitement

English:
Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis
using @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

13 February 2014 - 11:00 am CET
(10:00 am UTC/GMT, 5:00 am EST):
» Register Now for Free

Português:
Análise Quantitativa de Risco Utilizando o
@RISK e o Decision Tools Suite

21 de fevereiro 2014 - 10:00 am Brasília Time
(1:00 pm UTC, 2:00 pm CET)
» Inscreva-se grátis

Também em Português, AMANHÃ:
Simulações de Séries Temporais com o @RISK
7 de fevereiro 2014 - 10:00 am Brasília Summer Time
(12:00 Noon UTC, 1:00 pm CET)


These webinars will explore some of the ways in which organizations are applying Palisade tools. From oil and gas, insurance and finance through to healthcare, defense and construction, @RISK and the other tools in the DecisionTools Suite enhance the decision making capabilities of some of the world’s most successful companies.

For nearly 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, operational risk registers, portfolio analysis, insurance loss modeling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which the tools are applied. The webinar will demonstrate how easy – and necessary – it is to implement quantitative risk analysis in any business.

If you would prefer to join us for a more in depth Training be sure to check out this previous post: Start the New Year Right with Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Software Training

 

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Palisade Celebrates 30th Anniversary in 2014

 
 

 

Leader in Risk & Decision Analysis Software for 30 Years

In 2014, Palisade Corporation celebrates 30 years as the leading developer of risk and decision analysis software. Since 1984, Palisade has been committed to developing the world’s most robust, innovative, and comprehensive software and solutions for risk analysis and decision support. Today, @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 93% of Fortune 500 companies, helping executives and managers to make better decisions every day.

Across 30 years, Palisade has been gratified to build strong relationships with industry leaders such as Unilever, Merck, Petrobras, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Procter & Gamble, CH2M Hill, Shell Oil, Anglo American, and BorgWarner. In addition to supplying the software that aids in high-stakes decision-making, Palisade provides training, technical support, and custom solutions so that our customers have the tools needed to make strong decisions in the face of uncertainty.

We wish our colleagues and clients a happy 2014, and look forward to new opportunities and success in our fourth decade.

Happy 2014 from all of us at Palisade!




 

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Custom Solutions: Using @RISK for Oil Field Development Decisions

Oil companies need to assess new fields or prospects where very little hard data exists. Based on seismic data, analysts can estimate the probability distribution of the reserve size. With little actual data available, companies still must quantify and optimize the Net Present Value (NPV) of this asset. The number of wells to drill, the size of the processing facility, and the plateau rate of the field must all be optimized. The following example is a custom application written by Palisade Custom Development using @RISK’s XDK in Excel.

It is a custom application written by Palisade Custom Development using @RISK’s XDK in Excel.  - See more at: http://blog.palisade.com/blog/decision-making-under-uncertainty-2/how-to-create-a-custom-application-for-stock-portfolio-optimization-right-in-your-spreadsheet#sthash.0by9ZU0n.dpuf
It is a custom application written by Palisade Custom Development using @RISK’s XDK in Excel.  - See more at: http://blog.palisade.com/blog/decision-making-under-uncertainty-2/how-to-create-a-custom-application-for-stock-portfolio-optimization-right-in-your-spreadsheet#sthash.0by9ZU0n.dpuf
It is a custom application written by Palisade Custom Development using @RISK’s XDK in Excel.  - See more at: http://blog.palisade.com/blog/decision-making-under-uncertainty-2/how-to-create-a-custom-application-for-stock-portfolio-optimization-right-in-your-spreadsheet#sthash.0by9ZU0n.dpuf

Oil Field Development Screenshots

This analysis can be simplified by representing the production profile by three phases:

  1. Build up: The period when wells are drilled to gain enough production to fill the facilities.
  2. Plateau: After reaching the desired production rate (plateau), the period when production is continued at that rate as long as the reservoir pressure is constant and until a certain fraction of the reserves is produced. In the early stages of development, this fraction can only be estimated, and production above a certain rate influences plateau duration.
  3. Decline: The period when production rates, P, decline by the same proportion in each time step, leading to an exponential function: P(t) = P(0) exp(-c*t), where t is the time since the plateau phase began and c is some constant.

With only estimates for the total Stock Tank Oil Initially In Place (STOIIP = reserve size) and percent recovery amounts, the objective is to select a production rate, a facility size, and well numbers to maximize some financial measure. In this example, the measure used is the P10 of the NPV distribution. In other words, the oil company wants to optimize an NPV value which they are 90% confident of achieving or exceeding.

As described, the problem is neither trivial nor overly complex. A high plateau rate doesn’t lose any reserves, but it does increase costs with extra wells and larger facilities. However, facility costs per unit decrease with a larger throughput, so choosing the largest allowed rate and selecting a facility and number of wells to match might be appropriate.

This is just one example of how Palisade can provide personalized risk solutions for your business needs. We offer custom software development services as well as software developer kits to create your own applications integrating @RISK, RISKOptimizer, and other Palisade technology. We can also help automate Palisade software using VBA in Microsoft Excel or Project.

» Learn more about Palisade's Custom Development

You may also be interested in the following:

Free Webcast this Thursday: "Exploring Oil & Gas Applications of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite" - See more at: http://blog.palisade.com/blog/risk-and-decision-analysis-news/free-webcast-this-thursday-exploring-oil-and-gas-applications-of-risk-and-the-decisiontools-suite#sthash.sev3ym2s.dpuf

Cost Risk Analysis Example Movie: Palisade's Custom Development Team uses @RISK's XDK for this custom application
 

 

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Start the New Year Right with Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Software Training

Kick off the New Year with some fresh ideas presented to you by the Palisade Training Team. Our hands-on software training courses will take place in cities all around the globe. Join us for a training near you, to learn how to incorporate @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite into your models and help you make better decisions in 2014!

2014 Palisade Training Opportunities

Australia
Melbourne: 22-23 January 

Brasil
Rio de Janeiro: 29 - 31 de janeiro
São Paulo:19-21 de fevereiro
Belo Horizonte: 19 - 21 de março

Latinoamérica
México D.F - 28-30 de enero

EMEA and India
London: 28-30 January
Munich: 4-6 March
London: 4-6 March

US and Canada
Houston: 14-16 January
Ottawa: 11-13 February
Atlanta: 18-20 February
Washington DC: 4-6 March

» Register now for a Palisade  training seminar

Learn to Make Better Decisions 

For almost 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimationNPV analysisportfolio analysisoperational risk registersinsurance loss modelingreserves estimationschedule risk analysisbudgetingsales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which Palisade software tools can be applied.

By attending a Regional Seminar, you can learn how to apply @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite to real-life problems. All courses include complimentary materials with dozens of example models, plus lunch and breaks. Professional development credits are available, including CPE, PMI, and AACEI.

By the end of a 2-day course, attendees should be able to perform defensible risk assessments using @RISK software. The 3-day course covers the other products in the DecisionTools Suite, including PrecisionTreeRISKOptimizerEvolverTopRankStatTools, and NeuralTools. Our trainings utilize @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite 6.2.

» Learn more about the new features in version 6.2

 

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Risk Professionals Gather in Vegas for Palisade’s 2013 Risk Conference

The 2-day Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas brought together around 170 decision-makers from a wide range of industries at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino.

In the ever-popular Software Presentations track, Palisade developers and trainers covered features of the DecisionTools Suite and @RISK. At the same time, 3 additional tracks featured experts from CH2M Hill, Westinghouse, Lockheed Martin, Intel, Premera Blue Cross, Tennessee Valley Authority, and many others. These presentations covered industry case studies from fields as diverse as aerospace, energy, agriculture, finance, healthcare, and many more.

» View presentations from the 2013 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas

Mark Krahn presented at 2013 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas

Conference attendees were also able to meet with Palisade consultants in one-on-one Expert Sessions. The Expert Sessions were well-received by both conference participants and Palisade consultants and trainers. Participants get a chance to bring their own models for the consultant to review, while consultants get a chance to discuss interesting applications of Palisade software in detail.

As always, the Risk Conference events are invaluable opportunities for networking and learning. "As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software," said Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development. See more quotes from participants below.

 

Keynote focuses on successful BorgWarner
project with Palisade Custom Development

Brian Maturi, Director of Risk Management at BorgWarner, delivered the keynote address. Mr. Maturi described the successful implementation of a capital appropriations model that is used by around 300 financial analysts, controllers and program managers in 17 countries around the world.

Maturi and BorgWarner worked with Palisade’s Custom Development team to incorporate @RISK functionality into their model so that non-expert users could easily input data, and obtain standardized reports for business managers. The users of the system are not statisticians, so the model needs to be powerful, yet simple. “We wanted a system that could model 90% of the risks rather than an overly complex system that tries to model everything,” said Maturi. Palisade developers were able to take his instructions and build a flexible model with the user interface he was looking for.

Explains Maturi, “We have educated about 2,000 managers over the years in how to interpret the @RISK outputs, and more importantly, how they can use the information to design business strategies to manage, mitigate and even exploit the risks using real options thinking.”

“We are with Palisade for the long haul,” adds Maturi. “My company is very, very good at engineering leading edge automotive products. Palisade is very, very good at building risk based models.”

» View Brian Maturi’s keynote presentation
» View presentations from the 2013 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas

 

A Global Series

The 2013 Risk Conference series took place in over a dozen cities covering 6 continents, and brought together hundreds of risk analysis professionals. We have announced dates for the EMEA region for 2014, with more dates coming soon. We hope you will be able to join us.

» 2014 Conference dates

Chris Albright presenting  at 2013 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas

» See more photos from the 2013 Vegas Risk Conference

 


Quotes from the 2013 Las Vegas event

"Very good conference with good usage of time."
— Mark Mendonca, Program Risk Management, Ernst & Young

"Excellent opportunity to explore all aspects  of risk analytics!"
— Kurt Carson, Senior Quant Analyst  in ERM group, Chelan PUD

"Excellent conference. Very informative.  Great topics."
— Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk Management at CenterPoint Energy

"Great conference!"
— Matt Rosenberg, RoseCap Investment Advisors

"A valuable and educative experience."
— Richard Horsfall, Consultant

"Excellent learning and networking opportunity."
— Mike Wallace, Consultant

 “As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development

 

 

 

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Join us NEXT WEEK in Las Vegas for our last event of our 2013 Palisade Risk Conference Series!

 

Join leaders from CH2M Hill, Intel, BorgWarner, Blue Cross, and More!
Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, November 20-21, 2013

It’s not too late -- contact us now if you are interested in attending next week’s event in Las Vegas!

The Palisade Risk Conference offers four tracks of learning over two days, plus the chance to set up individual free Expert Sessions with our consultants to review your own risk models.

Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. Here’s just a sample:

The event will also include practical software workshops and training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modeling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

“Great conference and very useful for a new user like myself. This saved me a lot of time in climbing the learning curve.”
          - Jeff Passmore, Senior Liability Strategist
            Standish/BNY Mellon

“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”
          - Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff
            Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin

 » View the conference schedule
 » Quantify the value of attendance for your company


 
Contact Palisade for a special registration rate:

 

 

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Radio App gets Risk Analysis Solutions from Palisade

How will a new technology or venture fare in an unestablished  or unclear market? Palisade’s @RISK software can help answer that question, and did so for the new mobile app called Omny by 121Cast, which allows users to manage their online listening of internet radio and other audio services for total customization.

The app, a venture under the stewardship of the Australian venture capital firm Adventure Capital, was used as an study example by researchers Dr Clint Steele and Kourosh Dini of Australia’s Swinburne University of Technology , and Darcy Naunton of Adventure Capital to test @RISK’s capability of resolving business model uncertainties.

Some of the unknowns of the app’s business plan included market size, speed of adoption, resources needed to develop the application and related services for market segments, optimum pricing, effectiveness of promotions, and size of the organic market. Identifying the sources of potential randomness was just the start. The model needs to be set up in such a way that when random fluctuations in the inputs occur, they have the correct effect upon the outputs. Unfortunately, many business plans and their financial models are not usually put together in such a way. Often, fixed numbers that “seem right” to the entrepreneur are allocated to each cell within a spreadsheet. The model will balance, but if one changes a cell value for, say, the market size, then the other cells are unlike to change much. If they do, then it will unlikely be in a logical manner. An increase in sales, for example, may not cause a corresponding increase in operations costs, asset purchased, or administration costs.

Creating accurate models for these relationships was the first step. This was easy for the typical issues. The relationship between market size and the cost of customer support is a good example. However, other relationships are trickier to model. For instance, how does an increase in sales affect the position of an app in an app store listing? To figure this out, the team used @RISK to create a model with distributions specified by percentiles. @RISK also helped the entrepreneurs use ‘coevolution’ to design a business plan--coevolution occurs when a problem becomes clearer after a person engages in solving it. “Because you have to create a model that allows for the flow of variances, a lot more thought needs to go into how the proposed business will run,” says Darcy Naunton, the capital venture manager on the project. “I now know a lot more about this business than I ever would have otherwise.”

As the case study explains, new ventures will always have unknowns. “It is what entrepreneurs do – deal with uncertainty. However, @RISK can be used to eliminate uncertainty about the sensitivity of the business model to expected randomness. This is different from removing uncertainty, or randomness, entirely – that’s impossible. But by mitigating some of the guesswork around the sensitivity of a business plan to various external fluctuations, an entrepreneur can now focus uncertainty management skills on a smaller area and apply those skills more intensely.”

Read the original case study here.

See also: Incorporating Project Risk Management Strategies in your Enterprise

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Hitachi taps Palisade RDK Software to help manage Supply Planning

Hot off the heels of recent success in China, Palisade continues to establish a reputation for excellence in Eastern markets—this time in Japan. Hitachi Solutions East Japan, Ltd., a core IT company of the Hitachi Group, which employs some 400,000 people worldwide, has selected Palisade’s @RISK Developer Kit to help manage supply planning. 

With its headquarters in Sendai City in Miyagi Prefecture, Hitachi Solutions East Japan Ltd. is responsible for data and risk analysis of supply chain management, production, and sales & inventory planning and management. Analyzing these elements can be tricky, particularly when it requires forecasting demand and prices of raw materials. Using the @RISK Developer kit, Planning Department Research Division Head Masaru Tezuka and his team were  able to do these analyses.

There are a wide variety of risks in the manufacturing industry, including fluctuating variables such as demand, price, and foreign exchange. For demand fluctuation, supply is determined by demand forecasts. If the forecast underestimates demand, a supply shortage results, causing the company to miss opportunities to increase sales. If the forecast overestimates demand, inventory or disposal costs may follow. Price and currency fluctuations are also important factors for risk management in the manufacturing sector, and the improvement of forecast accuracy through risk analysis is essential to mitigate these risks.

For these problems, Hitachi wanted to develop a high level stand-alone GUI (graphical user interface) to visualize production and inventory conditions, while also incorporating @RISK’s excellent risk analysis functions. @RISK’s Developer Kit made it easy to tailor the program to Hitachi’s needs and desires. Through the use of tornado diagrams, Hitachi was able to understand the effects on profitability based on which product is produced or sold at what time, and observe the overall situation for each product.

In his case study for Palisade, Dr. Tezuka concludes, “It is crucial to develop strong risk forecasting and risk analysis…@RISK is a critical part of that process.”

Read the case study here.
 

See also: Palisade's Risk Analysis Solutions at Work in China

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Palisade Software Aids Business and Research in Japan

First Palisade made its mark in China--now we're establishing success in Japan. Two recent case studies detailed the use of Palisade's @RISK software by both a major Japanese company, Hitachi Solutions East Japan, and a researcher at the University of Tokyo illustrate how our easy-to-use software can benefit businesses and academics across the world.

The Hitachi case study details how executives at the manufacturing company used @RISK Developer Kit to analyze supply chain and inventory management. They created a stand alone graphical user interface to visualize production and inventory conditions, while also incorporating @RISK’s excellent risk analysis functions. @RISK’s Developer Kit made it easy to tailor the program to Hitachi’s needs and desires.

At the University of Tokyo, Professor Katsuaki Sugiura at the Laboratory of Global Animal Resource Science used @RISK to  improve the surveillance program for bovine spongiform encephalopathy--otherwise known as mad cow disease, in beef production in Japan.

Read the case studies in English here and here.

Both of these reports are available in Japanese on the Palisade website:

See also: Palisade's Risk Analysis Solutions at Work in China

o improve the surveillance program for BSE in beef production, - See more at: http://blog.palisade.com/blog/risk-and-opportunity#sthash.0W8NnwG8.dpuf
o improve the surveillance program for BSE in beef production, - See more at: http://blog.palisade.com/blog/risk-and-opportunity#sthash.0W8NnwG8.dpuf

 

 

ta and risk analysis of supply chain management, production, and sales & inventory planning and management. Analyzing these elements can be tricky, particularly when it requires forecasting demand and prices of raw materials. Using the @RISK Developer kit, Planning Department Research Division Head Masaru Tezuka and his team were  able to do these analyses. - See more at: http://blog.palisade.com/blog/risk-and-opportunity#sthash.0W8NnwG8.dpuf
ta and risk analysis of supply chain management, production, and sales & inventory planning and management. Analyzing these elements can be tricky, particularly when it requires forecasting demand and prices of raw materials. Using the @RISK Developer kit, Planning Department Research Division Head Masaru Tezuka and his team were  able to do these analyses. - See more at: http://blog.palisade.com/blog/risk-and-opportunity#sthash.0W8NnwG8.dpuf

 

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Palisade's Risk Analysis Solutions at Work in China

Palisade is establishing a robust presence in China. Recently, Palisade published two new case studies from the country; one details how the Shanghai Food and Drug Administration uses @RISK software for risk and decision analysis in food safety  and risk assessment. Specifically,  @RISK has helped the Shanghai FDA carry out exposure assessments of chemical and biological contaminates, as well as analyzing surveys of data on residents’ expenditure on various foods. In one case, @RISK helped asses nitrite contamination risk for cooked meats, in another, it aided in evaluating the likelihood of vomitoxin contamination of wheat products. With these and many other successes, the Shanghai FDA has been able to implement effective risk management recommendations.

The other Chinese case study details how @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite have been used in Professor Li Mian's research and his graduate-level engineering course at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Prof. Li 's research includes complex engineering system design and optimization, decision-making and optimization theory.

Both of these reports also appear in Chinese on the Palisade website:

Read the case studies in English here and here.

See also: Palisade's Risk Analysis Software Ensures Shanghai Food Supply is Safer Palisade's Decision Tools Used At Shanghai's Top University

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Managing Risks in New Green Building Technologies

Green construction is on the rise, and for good reason. The move to conserve energy and shrink carbon footprints continues to permeate both consumer and commercial behavior. Because buildings represent a significant portion of global energy and water usage, making new construction more environmentally-friendly is a strategic area to address. However, as the expansion of green initiatives continues, there are new, unforeseen risk factors to be addressed.

A recent Wall Street Journal article, featuring commentary from Palisade Vice President Randy Heffernan, took a closer look at this trend. The piece delved into the risks associated with green building materials and alternative energy sources. One way to combat those factors is through the utilization of risk analysis software powered by Monte Carlo simulation, which is the basis of @RISK. Randy addressed this point in the article:

“When you bring in elements such as new and often more expensive building materials or building features that are more weather-dependent—like solar and green roofs—the uncertainty of the entire project is compounded. Overall, we see growing awareness about the need to quantify as much as possible and account for the inherent risks using probabilistic approaches.”

Green construction is likely to expand with new construction projects.  Organizations will certainly need to be prepared to tackle the expected and unexpected risks that come with it. Being able to uncover risks and determine the probability that they may or may not occur will place green construction organizations in a position to plan accordingly.

» Read "Are There Red Flags in Green Construction?" on the WSJ website

See also: "Assessing the Risk of Cleantech Projects" on Altenergymag.com, featuring FutureMetrics case study

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2013 Palisade Risk Conference Series - Three stops coming up in November: Paris, Milan and Las Vegas

We have three cities left to go in our 2013 Risk Conference Series - Paris, Milan and Las Vegas! We have spanned the globe and stopped in 11 cities in the past 7 months. Last week at our Moscow Risk Conference we were able to present our latest versions of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite programs which have been completely translated into Russian. According to Craig Ferri, Palisade's EMEA & India Director, "The speakers were of very high standard, and attendees were excited about the software and looking forward to being able to download the presentations. It was a great success and we look forward to new partnerships in Russia."

2013 Palisade Risk ConferenceThe Moscow conference, as well as the others in the 2013 Palisade Risk Conference Series, are beneficial for both novice and experienced users of our risk and decision analysis products. If you are a new user and unfamiliar with @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite, we invite you to see why 93% of the Global Fortune 100 are using Palisade products to make better decisions. If you are an existing user, this is your opportunity to network and be exposed to some useful hints and tips to get more out of our software.

In general, Palisade software enables clients to be more confident in the decisions that they make, in a wide variety of industries and applications. Clients use Palisade software in industries ranging from oil & gas, mining, and finance, through to utilities, insurance, and banking, along with government, manufacturing, and logistics. So, if one of your responsibilities is to create or base decisions on a credit risk analysis, financial risk analysis, or maybe a pharmaceutical risk assessment, or if you are looking to improve your project risk management strategies, we invite you to join us in one of the following cities to learn how other people utilize our software.

Palisade Conférence régionale sur le risque
Paris - 12 novembre
Voir le programme - Inscription

Palisade Regional Risk Conference Milan
Milan - November 14th
View Schedule - Register Now

Palisade Regional Risk Conference Las Vegas
Las Vegas - November 20th-21st *
View Schedule - Register Now

* 2-day event with 4 tracks for each day.

 

Previous 2013 Palisade Risk Conferences

An advantage of our software being available in 8 different languages is the Palisade's ability to provide risk analysis services throughout the world. The following is a list of the cities Palisade Risk Conferences were held this year. If you missed us in a city near you, be sure to look for us in 2014!

 

See also: Palisade Global Risk Conferences Advance Best Practices in Risk Management

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2013 Palisade Training Opportunities: Make Better Decisions with @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Now that the new version 6.2 is available, it is a great time to join us for one of our last few trainings scheduled on our calendar for 2013! Or maybe a live web training may be a better fit for you? Either way, you will learn how to incorporate @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite into your day to help you make better decisions.

For almost 30 years, Palisade software and solutions have been used to make better decisions. Cost estimation, NPV analysis, portfolio analysis, operational risk registers, insurance loss modeling, reserves estimation, schedule risk analysis, budgeting, sales forecasting, and demand forecasting are just some of the ways in which Palisade software tools can be applied.

By attending a Regional Seminar, you can learn how to apply @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite to real-life problems. All courses include complimentary materials with dozens of example models, plus lunch and breaks. Professional development credits are available, including CPE, PMI, and AACEI.

By the end of a 2-day course, attendees should be able to perform defensible risk assessments using @RISK software. The 3-day course covers the other products in the DecisionTools Suite, including PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, Evolver, TopRank, StatTools, and NeuralTools.

 

Decision-Making and Quantitative
Risk Analysis using @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

 

EMEA and India

London - Oct. 22-24Mumbai Training
Johannesburg - Oct. 29-31

Oslo - Nov. 19-20
Mumbai - Nov. 25-26
London - Dec. 3-5

Milan - Dec. 10-12
 

US and Canada

Denver - Nov. 6-7 

Los Angeles - Dec. 3-5

 

Australia
Perth - Nov. 20-21  
 

Evaluación de Riesgos en Proyectos de la Industria de la Construcción e Infraestructura
 

Latinoamérica
México D.F - 3 al 5 de diciembre  

 

Avaliação do Risco para Usuários @RISK e Decision Tools Suite

Brasil
Belo Horizonte - 23 - 25 de outubro
Curitiba - 23 - 25 de outubro

Brasília - 6 - 8 de novembro
São Paulo - 20 - 22 de novembro

 

» Register for a Palisade  training seminar 

 

 

Live Web Training

Live Web Training is delivered by an expert instructor via an interactive web session and telephone conference. Course notes and examples files are emailed to you. With online training you can avoid travel time and costs while still interacting with the instructor and group.

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk
Analysis using @RISK, Part I

October 31 - November 1

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk
Analysis using @RISK, Part II

November 14-15

Decision Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite, Part I

December 9-10

Decision Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite, Part II

December 19-20

» See the Live Web Training schedule and register today

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Palisade's Monte Carlo Simulation Software Featured in Quality Magazine

Palisade Corporation got a shout-out in the August edition of Quality Magazine, a monthly business publication serving the quality assurance and process improvement needs of more than 64,000 manufacturing professionals. The article, “Simulation City” by Michelle Bangert, discusses Monte Carlo simulations and how they can be used in a variety of industries and situations.

Randy Heffernan, Vice President of Palisade is quoted in the story, explaining why companies use simulation software. “A lot of times, it comes out of a larger cost-cutting or waste reduction at the company as well as quality improvement,” he said in the piece. He goes on to explain that software like @RISK can help reduce material waste and the time, and that the cost and availability of a material can have a huge impact on production. “The risk of not having what you need when you need it is big,” Heffernan said. “But this is not intuitive…There is an assumption that raw material is just there waiting for you. But that’s not really true.”

The article continues, “with global supply chain issues caused by the floods in Thailand a few years ago or the tsunami in Japan, more people are becoming aware of the supply chain risks and the related quality of manufacturing. 'How do you maintain quality in the face of uncertain suppliers?” Heffernan asks. Though companies can find backup suppliers, they don’t want to use too many in order to maintain economies of scale. This is where software can step in to help find a solution.'”

The software can provide models using three different suppliers, such as sourcing 70% from supplier number one and seeing the uncertainty level.  “Software can do those calculations for you,” Heffernan said. “There’s no way people can do that manually.”

Read the original article here.

See also: "Risk Analysis Will Drive Better Decisions Across the Supply Chain" in Supply Chain Digital magazine

 

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Palisade's Decision Tools Used At Shanghai's Top University

Palisade prides itself of software tools that can be easy to use and multi-use. Professor Li, of the University of Michigan – Shanghai Jiao Tong University Joint Institute, provided some enthusiastic feedback on Palisade products in a recent case study.

Prof. Li 's research includes complex engineering system design and optimization, decision-making and optimization theory. Li uses Palisade's @RISK tools into his research and courses at Jiao Tong University. In his research, Li routinely uses @RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank, and StatTools to do specific calculations in system design process, enabling him to analyze his ability to guarantee original design performance while changing different variables. He also uses the tools to perform decision analyses for system users.

Li says that he compared @RISK to other research software on the market, including Matlab. While Matlab and similar software offer some of the risk and decision analysis functionality found in Palisade’s software, researchers have to add their own code to access this level of functionality, taking considerable effort and time. In contrast, Palisade risk and decision analysis software simplifies these functions so that they are easy to use, and allows the creation of comprehensive data models.

Using DecisionTools for Product Pricing and Engineering Design
Prof. Li gives two examples on how the software is used in his teaching and research. The first involves a study of pricing risk and decision-making when introducing a new product to the market. Many factors affect the price of a new product, such as raw material and production labor costs. Li wanted to determine how large an impact these factors would have on a product's final price. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Li was able to find the relative influence of each variable. The whole approach was simple and intuitive. In another example, Li used the software to determine the influences of various factors on tolerances in car engine design. By using Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite, Li was able to save a lot of time, completing the procedures with just two or three commands.

Short Learning Curve
Prof. Li has found that the DecisionTools Suite enables students to perform highly flexible case analysis and decision analysis of any issues that may be encountered in a system. Students are able to grasp a number of related concepts with greater ease, while gaining powerful tools to facilitate solving practical problems. In Prof. Li’s research, Palisade has provided excellent support for the calculations and optimization required in areas like engine design and decision-making support theory, thus saving huge amounts of time and effort. Says Prof. Li, "You can now complete what originally took you 20 hours to do in as little as a single hour!"

Read the original case study here.

This case study is also available in Chinese: 上海交大开设DecisionTools 和@RISK软件课程并获得成果

See also: Some Uses of Decision Support Software

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Palisade's Risk Analysis Software Ensures Shanghai Food Supply is Safer

Palisade’s technology has been busy overseas, helping to keep millions of people safer from food and pollutant contamination; The Shanghai Food and Drug Administration monitors the safety of the production, circulation and consumption of food, drugs, health supplements and cosmetics for Shanghai, a city with over 20 million residents. Since 2007, the Shanghai FDA has been using Palisade’s @RISK software for risk and decision analysis to monitor contaminants and assess food safety risk in food service. Tian Mingsheng, Inspector and Chief Physician of the Shanghai FDA, explained in a recent case study how @RISK has benefited Shanghai’s food supply.

@RISK has helped the Shanghai FDA carry out exposure assessments of chemical and biological contaminates, as well as analyzing surveys of data on residents’ expenditure on various foods. Overall, the software “has played an indispensable role in the efficient development of food safety monitoring at the Administration, helping guarantee the safety of the food Shanghai residents consume,” writes Mighsheng.

Prior to using @RISK, the Shanghai the FDA relied on mean averages to calculate average risk exposure, which didn’t allow for accurate, quantitative exposure assessments for sensitive groups or highly exposed populations, leaving no way to describe the formation and development trends behind a risk. It also hampered the formulation of effective countermeasures to protect these sensitive groups. Thus, there was an urgent need for effective risk evaluation and assessment software.

In 2007 the Shanghai FDA decided to try Palisade’s @RISK software to tackle these issues. The results were excellent: a nitrite contamination risk assessment for cooked meats, cadmium contamination exposure assessments, a vomitoxin risk assessment for wheat products and a risk assessment for bacillus cereus contamination in rice, completely overcoming previous setbacks. The Administration also carried out analyses on vibrio parahaemolyticus contamination in seafood and listeria contamination in refrigerated ready-to-eat meals with excellent results to make effective, needed risk management recommendations.

Mingsheng says, “with @RISK, the Shanghai FDA has been able to eliminate its old-fashioned, backward risk assessment and evaluation methods, and find patterns even at the micro level, finding, for example, patterns and risks in chemical and biological contamination, with important implications for maintaining food safety for Shanghai residents.”  

Read the full case study here.

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