Risk Programming

• What will be the effect of a new health policy in a country?
• How do we quantify and mitigate health risks in our food supply?
• Should we allow imports of a certain agricultural product?

Quantitative risk analysis techniques can help you answer these and many more questions. A new postgraduate certificate program in Risk Analysis in Health and Food Safety is being offered by EpiX Analytics and the Royal Veterinary College (RVC), University of London. “People interested in risk analysis in health and food safety come from a variety of backgrounds, so it was important for us to use software that is not only statistically sound, but also user friendly. This is why we chose @RISK as the primary teaching software for this course,” said Dr. Francisco Zagmutt, managing partner of EpiX Analytics and one of the course instructors.

This course will use many examples and case studies to provide participants with the skills for cutting-edge quantitative risk analysis in health and food safety. The course is designed to accommodate the work schedules of professionals from research institutions, governmental and international agencies; agricultural, food, pharmaceutical and related industry; and academic staff and post graduate students.

 » More information and to register
 » Case study about @RISK and the Royal Veterinary College
 » "Good Practices and Common Mistakes" webcast delivered by Dr. Huybert Groenendaal of EpiX Analytics

PricewaterhouseCoopers put together a beautiful video about the Corridor Budgeting program, developed by Tobias Flath and Michael Hofmann. Corridor Budgeting is a methodology combining planning, business management, and risk management in order to prepare for a range of possible outcomes, and thereby generate a more realistic picture of the future.

Palisade's DecisionTools Suite is an integral part of this program. As explained in the video: "We identify the factors underlying variables and ranges that impact on financial results. The Corridor is regularly analyzed and validated, giving visibility into any gaps or delta between target bandwidths and actual figures. Specially designed software then aggregates these bandwidths and event risks to paint an accurate picture of possible scenarios."

The video depicts modeling with Monte Carlo simulation: "A simulation models the total risk exposure. The width of the curve indicates the level of uncertainty. The height shows the likelihood that an event will occur, giving senior executives insights into the full spectrum of future possibilities, and making it easier to make the right decisions."

The video concludes, "Corridor Budgeting allows businesses to forecast more realistically, and prepare more effectively for what's to come, equipping them to face the future, however it turns out." It's a simple and beautiful explanation of how risk and decision analysis are a central part of business decisions today.

See PwC's Corridor Budgeting video here:

Join us this Thursday, January 10, 2012, for a free live webcast entitled, "Use of @RISK in Food Safety Risk Assessment " to be presented by Charles Yoe.

The Food Safety Modernization Act is the most sweeping reform of FDA’s food safety authority in more than 70 years. It strengthens and increases the role of risk analysis in protecting consumers and promoting public health. In this free live webcast, Prof. Charles Yoe of Notre Dame of Maryland University will use the FDA/ Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition’s report “Quantitative Risk Assessment on the Public Health Impact of Pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus In Raw Oysters” in a demonstration and discussion of the use of @RISK in food safety risk assessment.

Charles Yoe is a professor of economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University and an independent risk analysis consultant and trainer. Working extensively for U.S. and other government agencies as a consultant and risk analyst, his wide range of risk experience includes international trade, food safety, natural disasters, public works, homeland security, ecosystem restoration, resource development, navigation, planning, and water resources. As a consultant to private industry his work includes a discrete but wide variety of concerns. He has trained professionals from over 100 countries in risk analysis and has conducted customized risk training programs for government agencies and private industry in over two dozen nations.

» Register now (FREE)
» View archived webcasts

It’s estimated that the human population will be nine billion by 2030. The Food and Agriculture Organisation believes that aquaculture, which currently provides around half of the fish and shellfish eaten around the world, is the only agricultural industry with the potential to meet the protein requirements of this size of population.  

However, one of the biggest constraints to achieving this is the depletion of stock levels through disease. Biosecurity measures, which aim to prevent, control and ideally eradicate disease are regarded as essential. However, encouraging the adoption of these practices are often difficult due to aquatic farmers’ levels of education, training, responsibility and perceived economic benefits. In addition, global estimates of disease losses may appear remote and irrelevant to farmers and producers.

Having seen Palisade’s risk analysis tool @RISK being demonstrated, Dr Chris Walster, a qualified veterinary surgeon and the secretary of the World Aquatic Veterinary Medical Association (WAVMA), started using the program to calculate the realistic risk of aquatic disease to farms, with a focus on cases where data inputs were limited. The capacity of @RISK to present data in an easy to understand way meant farmers could more easily understand the disease risk probabilities, review the cost/benefit of disease prevention and make informed choices about whether to put controls in place.

“@RISK enables farmers to reduce the risk of disease spreading amongst their animals whilst minimising additional costs,” Dr Walster explains. “For aquatic vets, the key is the graphs which allow us to demonstrate a complex probability problem quickly and simply in a way that is easy to understand and trust. These inform decision-making, thereby helping to boost the world’s aquatic stock whilst safeguarding farmers’ livelihoods.”

“This technique also potentially offers an economical method of assisting in the control of many diseases. Farmers undertake their own tests, with each of these providing incremental inputs so that the macro picture can be developed and acted upon,” concludes Walster.

» Dr. Walster's PPT presentation:
   @RISK's Role in Biosecurity: Reducing Disease Risk when Data is Limited

» Case Study: Reducing the risk of disease in aquatic animals using @RISK from Palisade

Join us this Thursday, December 6, 2012, for a free live webcast entitled, "Good Practices and Common Mistakes" to be presented by Dr. Huybert Groenendaal. This was one of the favorite sessions last month at the Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas.

Ever question if your Monte Carlo model is correct? Ever wondered how other organizations use @RISK, how to get the most value out of @RISK, and what are some of the most important best practices? Then this is the right free live webcast for you!

An increasing number of organizations are using analytical techniques such as quantitative risk analysis, value at risk (VaR), and risked NPV to help them improve decision making. However, all too often, these techniques may not be used optimally or accurately and their full value may not be realized.

During this presentation, Dr. Huybert Groenendaal will share his hands-on experience through hundreds of projects, and will discuss the following topics:

1. Good practices for the use of @RISK and risk modeling to support decision-making
2. Common mistakes in Monte Carlo simulation and how to prevent them.

All good practices and common mistakes will be discussed with the use of real-life risk modeling case studies and models based on EpiX consulting work.

Dr. Huybert Groenendaal is a managing partner at EpiX Analytics, a consultancy that helps clients use Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic modeling in a broad range of industries and fields, ranging from financial risk analysis, business development, marketing, budgeting, inventory optimization, and pricing, to risk analysis in health. Dr. Groenendaal has extensive experience in risk modeling and analysis for business development, financial valuation, R&D portfolios and portfolio evaluations in pharmaceuticals and medical devices. Dr. Groenendaal also teaches a variety of risk analysis training courses including Financial Risk Modeling for Pharmaceuticals, Quantitative Risk Analysis, and Corporate Finance Risk Analysis and customized on-site courses. He also lectures on the use of risks modeling in business at the executive MBA program at the Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado and teaches two online risk analysis courses at Statistics.com. Dr. Groenendaal has an MBA in Finance from the Wharton School of Business and PhD from Wageningen University and is an adjunct faculty at Colorado State University.

» View the recorded webcast "Good Practices and Common Mistakes"
» View webcast archive

@RISK (risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation) is now a truly cross-platform tool, enabling risk modeling of your Microsoft Project schedules using the same @RISK you use for risk analysis modeling in Microsoft Excel!  You can now do your project risk modeling in Excel rather than Microsoft Project, providing a new world of flexibility. A new interface layer reproduces your schedule in Excel, enabling you to use all Excel formulas and @RISK functions. When you make changes to your model in either Project or Excel, those changes are reflected in the other with @RISK’s Sync feature. (Note that all @RISK modeling takes place in Excel, so @RISK functions do not appear in Microsoft Project.) Then simulate your Project schedules in Project itself, using Project's scheduling and calculation engine.

The benefits of using Excel for your Project risk modeling are many.  You can easily build risk registers in Excel for your Project model using new “RiskProject” functions.  You can integrate your cost and schedule analyses. You can standardize on a single tool – @RISK – to meet the needs of your project managers, cost estimators, finance analysts – everyone who deals with risk and decision making under uncertainty in your company. Plus, a single interface means a shorter learning curve for everybody.

@RISK is part of The DecisionTools Suite -- an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty that runs in Microsoft Excel.

» Watch a demonstration of project risk modeling with @RISK
» See What's New in the DecisionTools Suite 6

@RISK now offers a new set of functions for simulating time series processes, or values that change over time. Any future projection of time series values has inherent uncertainty, and @RISK now lets you account for that uncertainty by looking at the whole range of possible time series projections in your model. This is particularly useful in financial risk analysis modeling and portfolio simulation.

There are functions available for 17 different statistical time series models, including ARMA, GBM, GARCH, and others. These functions are entered as array functions in Microsoft Excel.

@RISK provides new windows for fitting historical time series data to these new functions. The results can be animated to show the behavior of your time series during simulation. All this is integrated into the existing @RISK interface.

@RISK is part of The DecisionTools Suite -- an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty that runs in Microsoft Excel.

» Watch a demonstration of this new feature
» See What's New in the DecisionTools Suite 6

Like the inner workings of an intricate timepiece, major projects are made up of a number of parts—often moving in different directions—that must all work in concert to keep accurate time. The functioning interconnectivity of the smaller projects is greatly impacted by an organization’s ability to accurately forecast the risk, both major and detailed.  For management consulting firm Value Management Strategies (VMS),  Monte Carlo simulation has proven to be an effective method of risk management for many multi-level projects.

Value Management Strategies, Inc., based in Escondido, Ca. is a management consulting firm specializing in value analysis, value engineering and risk management for organizations in both the public and private sectors. VMS clients include state and federal government agencies, private engineering and architectural firms and local and international manufacturing firms.

Many of VMS’ clients are looking to deliver projects, implement processes or produce innovative products in specific verticals. To successfully complete these projects, they turn to VMS to analyze the seemingly never-ending maze of uncertainty and risk that exists in various projects and to develop risk response strategies and action plans that maximize opportunities and minimize threats. In this capacity, the VMS’ utilization of Monte Carlo simulation through @RISK helps to support the decision-making process, as well as offer a more granular understanding of the nature of uncertainties being characterized. Clarity of the likelihood and exposures of risks can help to minimize delays and maximize efficient deployment of capital resources.

We’re excited that @RISK is able to help VMS to keep its clients “moving parts” moving in the right direction.  Time is money…tick-tock, tick-tock.

» Read more: VMS Utilizes @RISK to Offer Clients a Roadmap to Managing Risk on Projects and Programs

Join us this Thursday, May 24, 2012, for a free live webcast entitled, "A Stochastic Simulation Model for Dairy Business Investment Decisions " to be presented by Dr. Jeffrey Bewley.

A dynamic, stochastic, mechanistic simulation model of a dairy enterprise was developed to evaluate the cost and benefit streams coinciding with investments in Precision Dairy Farming technologies. The model was constructed to embody the biological and economical complexities of a dairy farm system within a partial budgeting framework. A primary objective was to establish a flexible, user-friendly, farm-specific, decision-making tool for dairy producers or their advisers and technology manufacturers.

The basic deterministic model was created in Microsoft Excel. @RISK was employed to account for the stochastic nature of key variables within a Monte Carlo simulation. Net present value was the primary metric used to assess the economic profitability of investments. The model comprised a series of modules, which synergistically provided the necessary inputs for profitability analysis. Estimates of biological relationships within the model were obtained from the literature in an attempt to represent an average or typical U.S. dairy. Technology benefits were appraised from the resulting impact on disease incidence, disease impact, and reproductive performance. The economic feasibility of investment in an automated BCS system was explored to demonstrate the utility of this model.

An expert opinion survey was conducted to obtain estimates of potential improvements from adoption of this technology. Benefits were estimated through assessment of the impact of BCS on the incidences of ketosis, milk fever, and metritis; conception rate at first service; and energy efficiency. Improvements in reproductive performance had the greatest influence on revenues followed by energy efficiency and disease reduction, in order. Stochastic variables that had the most influence on NPV were: variable cost increases after technology adoption; the odds ratios for ketosis and milk fever incidence and conception rates at first service associated with varying BCS ranges; uncertainty of the impact of ketosis, milk fever, and metritis on days open, unrealized milk, veterinary costs, labor, and discarded milk; and the change in the percentage of cows with BCS at calving ≤ 3.25 before and after technology adoption. The deterministic inputs impacting NPV were herd size, management level, and level of milk production. Investment in this technology may be profitable; but results were very herd-specific.

Investment decisions for Precision Dairy Farming technologies can be analyzed with input of herd-specific values using this model. This free live webcast will go into detail about the model, as well.

Dr. Jeffrey Bewley, is Assistant Professor and Extension Dairy Specialist, specializing in Dairy Systems Management, Dairy Decision Making, and Precision Dairy Farming, at the University of Kentucky. He received his BS from the University of Kentucky, MS from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and PhD from Purdue University. Jeffrey has a keen appreciation for the opportunities automation provides for more precise management. His own work is in the technical and economic assessment of Precision Dairy Farming technologies, body condition scoring, and temperature monitoring. His outreach program is focused on developing tools and strategies for improved decision-making on dairy farms.

» Register now (FREE)
» View archived webcasts

There's an important event coming up in just a few short weeks--"Profit through Process," the IQPC Lean Six Sigma summit.  The summit is an almost week-long conference in Orlando, January 17 through January 20. IQPC has rounded up about 800 experts to deliver their knowledge, insights, and often inspiration to the folks who attend.   These presenters represent some high-profile companies like BP and PayPal, as well as leading consulting firms.

The sessions have been organized to satisfy the hankerings of everybody in the Six Sigma-process optimization crowd, from the chief quality officer to the Black Belt. And one thing I think will be really productive for the folks who get down to Orlando is the conference's emphasis on integrating a Lean Six Sigma program so that it becomes a living part of the organization.

Eight hundred is a lot of experts, who should have a lot of useful ideas about driving profit through process improvement.  And will be a lot of useful tools to check out.  Which brings me to my role at the summit--how can I sign off on thes blog without putting in a plug for Palisade?  I'll be there with our Monte Carlo software--booth #7--extolling the virtues of Monte Carlo simulation for Lean Six Sigma.  Monte Carlo simulation is a relatively recent addition to the Six Sigma toolkit, and while you may not think risk analysis is central to process optimization, it is really about getting a grip on uncertainty--and you can certainly relate to that.

Please know the IQPC is offering a "Free Hall Pass" for those interested in networking or exploring the latest Lean, Six Sigma & BPM solutions.

Remember, it's January, and you can come to Florida!  Here's the website--www.leansixsigmasummit.com/Event.aspx?id=341814.

I hope to see you there!

The other night, I had the opportunity to watch a free webcast titled “Use of @RISK for Probabilistic Decision Analysis of a Manufacturing Forecast in an Environment of High Uncertainty”. This presentation was extremely timely, since many companies are struggling to survive in these challenging economic times. Dr. Jose Briones did an excellent job discussing and illustrating how profitability projections in a manufacturing environment are directly tied to how the sales forecast fits with the capability of the operation, and how different manufacturing capacities and productions rates impact the output of the plant and the allocation of the fixed cost of production.

In the example he presents, a company is trying to decide how best to balance the sales of certain families of products to maximize revenue, maintain a diverse product line, and properly price each individual product based on the impact to the manufacturing schedule and fixed cost allocation.

He spends an appropriate amount of time discussing different input distributions such as the Triangular, Normal, Pert and Gamma distributions as well as sharing his recommendations on when to use them. He also shares his expertise on fixed cost allocation by product and the dangers in using the common method of dividing the fixed cost by the total production, and recommends doing so by allocating the fixed costs based on the projected run time of each product family. Lastly, he spends some time discussing the interpretation of the results, which I feel does a great job wrapping up the information presented in the webcast.
 

Dr. Jose A. Briones is currently the Director of Operations for SpyroTek Performance Solutions, a diversified supplier of specialty materials, BPM software and innovation consulting services. Dr. Briones has a PhD in Chemical Engineering from Clemson University and is a graduate of the Business Administration Program of Wharton Business School. If you have any questions about the webcast, you can contact Jose at Brioneja@SpyroTek.com or through Jameson Romeo-Hall at Palisade Corporation.