First of all, what is Monte Carlo simulation? Monte Carlo simulation is a computerized mathematical technique that allows people to account for variability in their process to enhance quantitative analysis and decision making. The technique is used by professionals in such widely disparate fields as finance, project management, energy, manufacturing, engineering, research and development, insurance, oil&gas, transportation, and the environment. (read more)
Where did it come from? The term Monte Carlo was coined in the 1940s by physicists working on nuclear weapon projects in the Los Alamos National Laboratory.
How Monte Carlo simulation works: Monte Carlo simulation performs variation analysis by building models of possible results by substituting a range of values—a probability distribution—for any factor that has inherent uncertainty. It then calculates results over and over, each time using a different set of random values from the probability functions. Depending on the number of uncertainties and the ranges specified for them, a Monte Carlo simulation could involve thousands or tens of thousands of recalculations before it is complete. Monte Carlo simulation produces distributions of possible outcome values.
Advantages Monte Carlo simulation provides a number of advantages over deterministic, or “single-point estimate” analysis:
Probabilistic Results. Results show not only what could happen, but how likely each outcome is.
Graphical Results. Because of the data a Monte Carlo simulation generates, it’s easy to create graphs of different outcomes and their chances of occurrence. This is important for communicating findings to other stakeholders.
Sensitivity Analysis. With just a few cases, deterministic analysis makes it difficult to see which variables impact the outcome the most. In Monte Carlo simulation, it’s easy to see which inputs had the biggest effect on bottom-line results.
Scenario Analysis. In deterministic models, it’s very difficult to model different combinations of values for different inputs to see the effects of truly different scenarios. Using Monte Carlo simulation, analysts can see exactly which inputs had which values together when certain outcomes occurred. This is invaluable for pursuing further analysis.
Correlation of Inputs. In Monte Carlo simulation, it’s possible to model interdependent relationships between input variables. It’s important for accuracy to represent how, in reality, when some factors goes up, others go up or down accordingly.
A few examples of Monte Carlo Simulation for Six Sigma and Design for Six Sigma for you to explore.
In the midst of the holiday season, I want to bring up the subject of applying Six Sigma to food preparation, mainly baking. I am not implying that you try to apply Six Sigma variation reducing techniques to anyone’s holiday baking as it could cause negative unintended consequences, like boxed macaroni and cheese dinners for the New Year.
As a child, I recall sitting around the dinner table after consuming a huge holiday meal, listening to the discussions about my grandmother’s homemade cheesecake and lemon meringue pie. Statements such as “the cheesecake was the best ever”, “this year’s lemon meringue pie wasn’t a tart as last year’s”, “the crust came out perfect” etc . . . To be honest as a 10 year old, I was not able to discriminate such subtleties. Now that I am an adult, I question whether they really could either, particularly after such an eating event, not mention comparing samples 12 months apart. With that said, the deserts were always phenomenal.
Now, onto present day . . . why not apply Lean Six Sigma to baking? Well, some do! A few years ago a regional supermarket chain in the mid Atlantic region hired a Lean Six Sigma consultant to optimize their chocolate cake for ultimate customer satisfaction, taste, pricing and of course profitability. Using taste tests, QFD, Kano models and a little DOE, they were able to identify the characteristics that were most important, then worked on reproducing those characteristics every time with little variation.
The project was a success for both the customers and company producing ultimate chocolate cake experience. Going back to my statement of unintended negative consequences, the Black Belt may have gained a few extra pounds during that assignment.
What’s next? If we can apply Lean Six Sigma to baking cakes to maximize profits and customer satisfaction, doesn’t it make sense to apply it to all food industries?
This morning I received a couple of interesting emails. The first being from Vijay Bajaj, WCBF’s Founder&CEO. The second being from Michael Cyger, Founder of iSixSigma. For those of you who may not be familiar with either organization, iSixSigma is one of the premier commercial organization that provides information and networking to the Six Sigma and Design for Six Sigma Communities through their iSixSigma Magazine, networking events and through isixsigma.com. The WCBF- Six Sigma Solutions (Worldwide Conferences and Business Forums) focuses exclusively on Six Sigma and related quality Conferences & Events.
The WCBF is giving a limited number of complimentary conferences passes, which can be used at any of their Lean and Six Sigma Conferences and Summits in 2009. In order to “win” one, you must complete a survey. The survey asks for the latest burning, need-to-know issues that should be addressed at events, and asks you to submit your recommendations for cutting-edge, provocative and perspective-shaking speakers. These survey results are certainly going to be used to decide future conference agendas. A bit complicated, but they seem to be gathering the VOC to ensure their future conferences meet the needs of their market, additionally they seem to be positioning themselves to bolster event attendance if needed, knowing travel budgets have been slashed in many organizations.
iSixSigma is offering huge discounts for their upcoming iSixSigma Live! Summit & Awards in January, and throwing in two (2) free 3-hour Master Class Workshops. Additionally, they also give suggestions “pinch pennies” while traveling.
These actions are extraordinary, knowing both organizations are commercial firms and have called the shots over the past years. The current economic crises seems to be taking a toll. I applaud them for their efforts and hope they continue to gather and evaluate the VOC even after these challenging times to are behind us.
Recently, I compiled a list of Lean Six Sigma and related events for 2009. Currently, there are 47 national tradeshows and events scheduled. As I indicated in a past post, I wish each of these organizations would hold one to two per year instead of a dozen or more. This would allow better idea and best practices sharing and potentially reduce costs for the event organizers.
Today, I stumbled over a blog article Six Sigma and Simulation Part 2 written by Jeff Joines, who is an Associate Professor in Textile Engineering at NCSU. He identifies the areas he feels that Monte Carlo simulation can be used in each of the phases of the DMAIC process. Define *Estimate cost savings for each project by indicating variability instead of using single-point estimates; provide a more reliable estimation as well as a confidence level of achieving the estimated savings. Analyze and Improve *Design of Experiments (DOE) (Full, Fractional, Mixed, etc.) is the most common tool utilized that provides a base line to illustrate improvement when changes are made, as well identifying factors of interest to control or change. *DFSS - If the product or process does not exist as is the case in a Design for Six Sigma, simulation models can be used to ascertain capability of a new process and product before implementation. *Cost reduction of performing a DOE (i.e., raw material cost, cost of shutting down current process). You can determine the process capabilities and ascertain the potential improvements while minimizing time and expenditures. *Multiple processes that feed one another. Transfer functions can be generated from a traditional DOE on each individual process but not the entire system. A simulation model can be used to combine each individual transfer function into determining the capability of the whole system as well as testing a wider range of values. Control *Simulation can also be used as a process control aid as the process is being implemented to determine potential problems.
I don’t know Jeff’s background and experience with Six Sigma, but he did a very nice job in both blogs explaining the Six Sigma methodologies. To read either posting in their entirety, visit Success in Simulation. I am looking forward to the third and final posting in the series.
There seems to be some low level confusion about Cpk and Ppk and what they actually represent. Very basically, Cpk is short term “noiseless” process capability where Ppk is long term “noisy” process capability. Some of the confusion regarding these two metrics may be because the automotive industry had at one time used Cpk to represent long term process capability and Ppk for short term, the complete opposite of the rest of the Six Sigma community. They have since conformed to the industry’s standard definitions. Another potential source of confusion is that Ppk is a much underutilized metric for what it measures. When developing a process performing at six sigma level, wouldn’t we ultimately want be focused on Ppk instead of Cpk? That is another subject that hopefully will receive more attention in the future.
In an excellent and soon to be published whitepaper, Cpk; What is its “Capability?” Rick Haynes' of Smarter Solutions dives into using Cpk as a capability metric, to provide insight on performance to a requirement if the process data used in the calculation comes from a normal distribution. If the process data is non-normal or it is the result of a combination of processes then it provides an underestimation of the true non-conformance capability. He evaluates the impact of the non-normality on Cpk by using a Monte-Carlo software, @RISK.
On Thursday, December 11th, Mr Haynes' will present the topic in a 1 hour webinar, which promises to be time well spent. I look forward to seeing you there!
One of the misperceptions about Monte Carlo Simulation is that it is only useful in reducing the number of “experiments” or “test runs” in conjunction with Design and Analysis of Experiments (DOE). Please don’t get me wrong it is a very powerful and useful tool for this use and is becoming more and more popular particularly during these economically challenging times.
What I’d like to touch on today, is using Monte Carlo software (@RISK) for a Lean project where you have virtually no data. When I was looking for my Lean Six Sigma Black Belt certification project, I contacted an aerospace company in the hopes they would have the need of process improvements in areas where there was much data so that I could apply all the wonderful tools I had learned about in my studies. To make a long story short, they had the need for process improvements in both manufacturing and engineering but their true needs were in the project management processes upstream of manufacturing. They regularly quoted a 12 month delivery time, but usually delivered in 17 months, with OTD rate of 22%. The only data we had to work with were, order date, date released to production and date the finished goods were shipped to the customer. The catch was, most orders were already late by the time manufacturing received all the parts to build the unit.
In order to identify the “problems”, we took one afternoon created a Process Flow Map by interviewing each of the departments and employees who were in the value stream, identified all the steps, assigned a best case, worse case and mostly likely time duration for each step, assigned distributions for each and created a Monte Carlo simulation model. The output of the model indicated a 20% OTD Rate and an average delivery rate of ~16.5 months. Not exact, but close enough to validate our model to allow the team to use @RISK’s sensitivity graphs to pinpoint which of the 80 plus process steps were contributing to the most variation. This also gave the team a starting point to hit the ground running. They are currently working on the suggested process improvements, which should save them ~$500k/year and reduce the average lead time to ~10 months.
If you would like more information, please let me know, I’d be happy to share more about the project with you.
Believe it or not, 2009 is upon us. The introduction of @RISK - Palisade Corporation’s Monte Carlo simulation add-in for MS Excel - into the Six Sigma and DFSS communities has been has been incredible! Many large and small corporations have standardized on @RISK for their quality, process improvement or development projects, as well as in their Six Sigma Black Belt and DFSS training courses.
If you are interested in sharing your success stories at an upcoming event or through a white paper, by all means please do. Between the almost countless events put on by ASQ, IQPC, ISSSP, iSixSigma and Marcus Evans, there is bound to be an event near you. Please let me know about your project and how you used @RISK and if there is any way we can support you in your desire to share your story.
You can contact the event organizers directly, or contact me and I can help point you to the proper venue to present at. Also, please feel free to contact me at any time should you have any questions about Palisade Corporation, @RISK, or the advantages of simulation to save time and money in improvement and development projects, or if you would simply like a free trial.
I am a consumer just like everyone else, and I’m seriously concerned about the retail service industry in the United States. To our chagrin, many manufacturing and telephone customer service positions have been outsourced to places like Mexico, China, and India. Ever since this migration started we have struggled to maintain these types of industries in the US because outsourcing can produce the goods and perform the services at a much lower cost then we can.
What I want to address today is the need for our retail establishments serving the general public to invest in sound Six Sigma and Lean process improvement principles. The processes used in many of our service industries, from the Automotive to Healthcare industries, are extremely flawed and waste much time and money between waiting, errors, reprocessing, and rework. Besides the shear inconvenience and high prices that are resultant in these ineffective procedures, they put our health at risk. Directly in the case of a medical misdiagnosis or flawed work on our automobiles, indirectly they put us at risk through the stress and aggravation one must endure to get things done properly on the first, second or even third attempt! Never mind the stress of the high prices.
With this said, the application of the ideas and concepts of Six Sigma for reducing the variation in process, (never mind advance concepts of Design of Experiments or Monte Carlo simulation etc . . .) and applying Lean principles for reducing waste - such as applying Poke yoke to tasks performed by relatively unskilled staff when performed incorrectly - have the ability to negatively affect our health.
In all fairness, the American workers are the best in the world. It is not their fault; they are given faulty and sometimes broken processes and systems to work with no support or time to fix them. I am sure they are as frustrated, or more so, than the general public, because they are caught in the middle and have to deal with us when things go wrong. How do we fix this? Please tell me your thoughts on this!
Last week, Palisade Corporation held its North American User Conference; it was a very successful event that brought together @RISK Users from around the world. Presentations and discussions touched on topics such as the subprime mortgage crisis, financial risk management, modeling flu, project risk management and of course, the ways to Monte Carlo simulation in Six Sigma.
It was great to see such a high level of interest in the Six Sigma related presentations and buzz they created in both the social networking opportunities as well as the feedback forms that were submitted after the conference. This shows despite the economic difficulties and the natural tendency to eliminate all unessential spending, Six Sigma and Design for Six Sigma is rightfully viewed as part of the solution.
SigmaFlow’s president Jay Holstine, presented Process Mapping for Knowledge Transfer: Doing More with Less. A very pertinent topic in today’s economic times, which will be presented live as an ISSSP Focused Session on November 25 at 2pm EST. Please join us.
Ed Biernat from Consulting with Impact led a presentation on the use of Six Sigma in Process Industries. If you are interested in viewing his presentation, Lean Six Sigma Applicatin of @RISK Part I, it can be viewed online. Part II will be live on December 12, 2008 at 1pm EST where he will dive deeply into the use of @RISK in this case study. Please join us.
A recent article, Executives Switch to Survival Mode, in the Wall Street Journal indicates that two of the top issues in crisis management can be managed with a strong Lean Six Sigma program, these were:
Excellence in Execution – Whether on the shop floor or in administrative processes, there is no longer room for inaccuracies or waste.
Speed, flexibility and adaptability to change is another area where a strong Six Sigma program mitigates the effects of crisis.
The interest at our User Conference in exploring the use of @RISK to reduce project cycle times and costs indicates to me that smart business leaders are looking to reduce risks and strengthen their companies during this time of crisis.
One of the typical complaints I have heard over the years in the Six Sigma Community is that transferring data between Minitab and other programs is a hassle. Sure you can cut past from any program to another, but that becomes repetitive and a source for potential error.
Palisade Corporation has been working with SixSigmaIn Team over the past few months; they are a very competent and respected consulting and training company in Italy. Besides their competency in training and consulting, they have created a very useful software application called MTBridge which can automate the information transfer between @RISK, MS Excel and Minitab. This allows you to focus on your project, not the mechanics of getting the data from Minitab to @RISK where you need it.
Let's play together for winning is a creative, entertaining and informative video that demonstrates MTBridge’s capability. The creative part of the presentation utilizes Microsoft’s Text to Speech technology in conjunction with MTBridge to provide the voices for Minitab, Excel and @RISK. Enjoy!
I learned of an upcoming free webinar through IndustryWeek that I thought I would share; it is called Lean and Six Sigma in Our Turbulent Economy and will take place Wednesday, November 12, 2008 at 2:00 p.m. I unfortunately will not be to attend but would like your feedback on the webcast if you are able to. Below is the summary.
Wave goodbye to the economy we've known. The complexity and global scope of the credit crisis has changed the world of business. Independent of this market mess, executives need to build better, stronger global organizations. You face business challenges throughout your organization. Many of your operating problems are painful now, and they will become more painful when things get better. Either rise to the occasion now or wait until your competition leaves you in the dust.
The best time to deploy the structure, methodologies, and improvement tools of Lean/Six Sigma is now, but it is amazing how improvement resources are one of the first casualties in the belt tightening efforts. Executives panic themselves and others around them into a paralysis frenzy, and their actions become a self-fulfilling prophesy with respect to Lean/Six Sigma. They selectively cut back on the very people who can save the day, because there are no funds in the budget for improvement! When this approach doesn't work, they cut back on jobs and look at offshoring to places with lower labor costs. Eventually, hundreds or even thousands of employees might be impacted by this short-sighted decision making under uncertainty.
Leading organizations "knuckle down" and use this time to search for and eliminate the hidden, non-people wastes in their processes. They take a more aggressive approach with their Lean/Six Sigma deployment because they see it as the key enabler to reduce costs, improve competitiveness, or accelerate growth. Regardless of your industry, an effective Lean/Six Sigma deployment requires that executives go on the defense and offense concurrently, and seize the day from their competition. You need to deploy the right improvement methodologies (e.g., Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, enabling IT) and resources to the highest impact opportunities now.
On Thursday, November 6, 2008 Ed Biernat, CEO of Consulting with Impact will share the results of a recent Lean Six Sigma Project where his company utilized Monte Carlo simulation to uncover and predicate process inefficiencies. The use of Monte Carlo simulation is growing in Lean Six Sigma applications. The ability to model actual data and then apply proposed changes to the model before modifying brick and mortar has significant appeal in capital-intensive industries including steel making. In this presentation, the Lean Six Sigma approach is detailed for a project to reduce steel inclusions in billet stock. Specifically, the modeling of the various queues in the process is analyzed to determine the potential impact of several proposed capital and process improvements. The team’s high level approach to the problem, their use of various tools including @RISK, as well as a detailed review of the queuing analysis are covered. Finally, the presentation explores the lessons learned and additional applications of simulation in this and similar projects.
The main limitation for any business activity when it comes to improving efficiency is time. A project typically has a definite start and end date, which means any improvement initiative has to be focused within that limited time period. This translates to working in parallel with the activities of a project as they actually happen. The second limitation is budget. Besides completing the project on time, can we do it on budget?
As defined by the Project Management Institute, "Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements".
The DMAIC and DFSS approaches tend to focus on controls for the improvements, process and product development, not the control of the project management process. This division between Project management and project improvement/development is fine if the project has a Project Manager, preferably a PMP, and a Black Belt, DFSS or DMAIC. But the reality is we are positioning our Black Belts as project leaders, and most times both roles are performed by the Black Belt. This approach is acceptable only if the BB is apt at both. In both DMAIC and DFSS training classes the focus is typically on the tools used to complete the project. Little (if any) time is spent on project duration or cost predication and management. Critical decisions must be made based on the probability of completing on-time and on-budget. If these probabilities are too low, the project may need to be redefined or even scraped
One excellent tool the certified PMPs use is @RISK for Project, which uses Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your project – and tells you how likely they are to occur. This means that you finally have, if not perfect information, the most complete picture possible. You can determine which tasks are most important, and then manage those risks appropriately. It can help you choose the best strategy based on the available information, which is why many PMPs and large companies with in-house training programs are standardizing on Palisade Corporation’s @RISK for Project for project management.
The appeal of Monte Carlo Simulation lies in its applicability under very general settings and the unlimited precision that can be achieved. In particular, Monte Carlo can be used in all situations where other techniques (Linear and non linear propagation, and Numerical Integration) can be used but can yield more precise estimates. For this reason, Monte Carlo is easily the most popular tool used in tolerance problems.
Until recently the caveat was in the amount of processing power and time it took to complete a simulation. Now @RISK from Palisade Corporation can utilize the full processing power and dual cores of today’s personal computers, so this is no longer an issue. The other issue, what was deemed as “Pseudo random number generators,” has been overcome by @RISK offering 8 tested and proven random number generators such as Mersenne Twister, RAN3I, MRG32k3a, MWC and KISS . . . to name a few. These are just a few of the reasons why @RISK is becoming the standard Monte Carlo Simulation package in DFSS Training and Six Sigma classes around the world.
Last month, I attended a free webinar, Minitab Methods to Deal with "Bad" Data, which was given by Master Black Belt Rick Haynes of Smarter Solutions, which I previously wrote about. If you didn’t attend or have a chance to read the article, or watch the archived video, I strongly suggest you do.
Since then, I have been in contact with Mr. Haynes and was very happy to hear he is proponent of using @RISK, and recommends all of his students to consider adding it as a tool to their Six Sigma tool box. Below are his thoughts:
“Lean Six Sigma methods are all about solving problems. When you start proposing improvements outside of the current wisdom, it is quite difficult to support a recommendation. The creation of a simple Y = F(x) model of an actual system, using @RISK and Excel, provides a platform that you are able to provide very accurate estimates of future performance that are very compelling to the executive leadership with little or no investment at risk. No other tools in the Lean Six Sigma tool box provide this ability like process simulation. All Black Belts and Master Black Belts can benefit from the use of simulation, particularly in transactional and service processes where experimentation and pilot testing is nearly impossible.” - Rick Haynes, Master Black Belt and Statistician, Smarter Solutions Inc.
For today, I am going to take a detour from my regular Six Sigma and Design for Six Sigma topics to discuss our world economy. I am not an expert on economics, but have to ask, How did we allow ourselves as a country get to this point? Were the experts at the helm of the economic wheel peering into a cloudy crystal ball? Did it distort their (or our) ability to make sound decisions based on data based on the analysis of our and the world’s financial positions? Isn’t this the information age? Did we ignore the information and indicators that predicated this financial train wreck? In Palisade’s DMUU (Decision Making Under Uncertainty) Blog they address this issue as well as the safeguard at least one Oil and Gas Company has put into place to avoid disasters. As a dear friend says to me when we are in a situation that we can’t avoid and we don’t want to be in, “The train is at the station and we have our tickets.” The key now is staying calm and objectively using data to make sound financial decisions using the tools such as Monte Carlo simulation for sound quantitative risk analysis to minimize risk and to make decisions with confidence to steer us out of this situation. There is little sense buying into or wasting our time with the political rhetoric of which candidate did what or didn’t, as they bid for our votes on November 4th . . . but that is another whole topic which I will avoid.
Jim Jubak of MSN Money posted this video “Is it the end of the financial world” on Friday, October 10, 2008. For what it’s worth, his prediction should give us all hope that it isn’t the end of the financial world and that toward the end of October we could even experience a short rally. Let’s hope he isn’t using a cloudy crystal ball either.
Today, I read a very interesting article written by Tony Jacowski of Aveta Solutions, he suggests applying the principles of Six Sigma to education. This is a concept that I have never thought of, or have ever heard of anyone speak of. I think he is onto something. His suggestion is probably much less controversial than the goverment mandated No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB).
The NCLB act, in many people’s opinion, has only forced teachers to focus on preparing for the standardized tests which are be used to evaluate the schools and students. Granted, the NCLB Act is much more comprehensive than this, but from a parent’s limited perspective and our children’s ability level compared to students in other countries, it appears to be more disruptive to learning compared to promoting true learning. The act has cost hundreds of billions of dollars since inception in 2001, which would be money well spent if all could see its success.
The concept of applying Six Sigma to education could result in, as Jacowski said, a “positive change in teaching methods and a consequential positive result is bound to happen”. By utilizing the tools of Six Sigma an environment of continuous improvement, innovation and creativity could be developed by close interaction between teachers, students and parents. Who knows, it might actually be able to reduce our school’s budgets and increase the quality of education that our students receive.
The other day I received the Synchronization newsletter produced by Xonitek Corporation. It typically has very interesting articles that are pertinent to today’s business issues. The article this month that caught my attention was written by Robert Clark, titled Is your office lean? Making every moment count.
It is an excellent summary of wastes hidden in our office environments and how to uncover and how eliminate them. The 7 wastes that Robert cites for the office environment are: Correction, Extra-processing, Underutilization, Overproducing, Inventory, Waiting, Excessive motion and Transportation.
These wastes are very similar to the wastes found on the shop floor, known as TIMWOODS (Travel, Inventory, Motion, Waiting, Overproduction, Over processing, Defects, Skills)
Robert Clark’s article is an excellent reminder that continuous improvement is a mentality not a program, and that we should look in all corners and processes of our organizations to find wastes - not just the shop floor for our Lean and Six Sigma Process improvements.
Last year, in anticipation of the release of @RISK 5.0 (which as you know included many six sigma capability metrics) we created an Six Sigma Forum so that there would be a place for the Six Sigma and Design for Six Sigma practitioners to post questions or ideas for others to respond to. Now that more and more professionals are using @RISK for their improvement and development projects, I thought it would was a good time to reintroduce the forum with the hope that it will become a good medium for getting answers to your Six Sigma-related questions (particularly around but not restricted to Monte Carlo Simulation) or for idea sharing.
Please visit http://forums.palisade.com/ to find the Palisade Six Sigma Forum plus additional Palisade Forums.
Recently, Franco Anzani of SixSigmaIn Team and Marco Manara of Casappa S.p.A. worked together on a Six Sigma tolerance analysis project where they used Palisade Corporation's @RISK 5.0. The model represents a tolerance analysis study performed to solve a potential assembly issue in a gear pump typically used in forklifts and low noise emission machines.
The model simulates the potential gap distribution in the pump and predicts the potential percentage of scraps, depending on both the nominal value and the variation (due to the machining capability) of the parameters.
@RISK 5.0 has been used to find the optimal combination of nominal design values and process variation to minimize the scrap percentage.
A combined optimization of the two responses has been performed, and an advanced 3D view of the simulated data has been added. Download a free trial of @RISK or the Tolerance Analysis Model.
Now, onto present day . . . why not apply Lean Six Sigma to baking? Well, some do! A few years ago a regional supermarket chain in the mid Atlantic region hired a Lean Six Sigma consultant to optimize their chocolate cake for ultimate customer satisfaction, taste, pricing and of course profitability. Using taste tests, QFD, Kano models and a little DOE, they were able to identify the characteristics that were most important, then worked on reproducing those characteristics every time with little variation.
This morning I received a couple of interesting emails. The first being from Vijay Bajaj, WCBF’s Founder&CEO. The second being from Michael Cyger, Founder of iSixSigma. For those of you who may not be familiar with either organization, iSixSigma is one of the premier commercial organization that provides information and networking to the Six Sigma and Design for Six Sigma Communities through their iSixSigma Magazine, networking events and through isixsigma.com. The WCBF- Six Sigma Solutions (Worldwide Conferences and Business Forums) focuses exclusively on Six Sigma and related quality Conferences & Events. 
There seems to be some low level confusion about Cpk and Ppk and what they actually represent. Very basically, 
One of the misperceptions about Monte Carlo Simulation is that it is only useful in reducing the number of “experiments” or “test runs” in conjunction with Design and Analysis of Experiments (DOE). Please don’t get me wrong it is a very powerful and useful tool for this use and is becoming more and more popular particularly during these economically challenging times.
Believe it or not, 2009 is upon us. The introduction of 
I am a consumer just like everyone else, and I’m seriously concerned about the retail service industry in the United States. To our chagrin, many manufacturing and telephone customer service positions have been outsourced to places like Mexico, China, and India. Ever since this migration started we have struggled to maintain these types of industries in the US because outsourcing can produce the goods and perform the services at a much lower cost then we can. 
Last week, Palisade Corporation held its North American User Conference; it was a very successful event that brought together @RISK Users from around the world. Presentations and discussions touched on topics such as the subprime mortgage crisis, financial risk management, modeling flu, project risk management and of course, the ways to Monte Carlo simulation in Six Sigma.
I learned of an upcoming free webinar through IndustryWeek that I thought I would share; it is called 
One excellent tool the certified PMPs use is 
Until recently the caveat was in the amount of processing power and time it took to complete a simulation. Now 
Last month, I attended a free webinar, Minitab Methods to Deal with "Bad" Data, which was given by Master Black Belt Rick Haynes of 
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