Monte Carlo Excel

Resolved for 2010:

• No more risk assessment on the backs of envelopes.

• Take time for statistical analysis of past experience.

• Use decent Monte Carlo software.

• Choose variables wisely.

• Consider carefully the implications of probability distributions.

• Continue decision evaluation even after the chosen course of action begins.

• Revisit, rerun, and adjust model frequently.

• Make better decisions by the numbers.

• MAKE MORE MONEY.

2010: A Model Year for Risk Analysis