Over the past three decades, behavioral economists and psychologists have gathered a significant amount of evidence suggesting that most people find it surprisingly difficult to make accurate judgments about probabilities. This is a cause for concern in real-world decisions, which normally involve at least some degree of risk and uncertainty. Even more troubling are the consequences for long-term decisions, in which it is necessary to account for multiple possible sequences of events; if each event includes an erroneous prior probability judgment, this will have the effect of multiplying the overall error in the decision.
This free live webcast will discuss some examples of probabilistic decision making where intuitions and judgments are regularly incorrect -- such as the Monty Hall problem, the base rate fallacy, and the conjunction fallacy -- and demonstrate these cases via implementation within @RISK risk analysis software, and PrecisionTree decision trees modeling software. Furthermore, the presentation will also explain how models of behavior during decision making can be developed using Palisade software.
Chris Brand is an Associate at Captum Capital Limited, where he provides consulting and training services to early stage life science companies in the behavioral aspects of business development. He is also a PhD student at Birkbeck, London University where he is active in the psychology of decision making. Chris holds an MSc in Cognitive and Decision Sciences from University College, London, an MA in Philosophy from the University of York and a BSc in Philosophy and Psychology from the University of Keele.
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