Dr. Jose A. Briones of SpyroTek Performance Solutions recently gave a Palisade webcast presentation, using the success of Apple’s iPad as a working example, in "Use of @RISK for Quantifying Uncertainty in Innovation Project Management."
Product innovation has been described as the way out of today’s difficult business environment. However, the rate of success of development projects — in particular white space or disruptive innovation projects — remains too low.
The analysts at SpyroTek believes that a reason for the low success rate of development projects is the erroneous application of analysis methods designed for incremental innovation, such as NPV and DCF, to projects with high levels of uncertainty.
In the presentation, Jose discusses the use of @RISK and Probabilistic Decision Analysis in the management of innovation projects with high levels of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision analysis, when combined with the right management processes like Discovery Driven Planning, is a very effective approach to evaluate and manage the risk and potential of innovation projects.